| Wednesday, November 09, 2005 |
| Hot damn! |
 Update: I thought he told you that he won't stop... Kilpatrick wins in the end, proving that it's not how much bling you charge on your city credit card, it's how much GOTV you pull in the hood... Interestingly, the following note is running on the Detroit Free Press web-site, which will make sense as you scroll down to about the middle of the original post...
Why did it take so long for the Free Press to call a winner in Detroit's mayoral race?
Like other local news organizations, we had results from a telephone survey conducted Tuesday afternoon and evening. We looked at returns from key precincts around the city. Our reporters were out all day, talking to voters as they emerged from the polls.
But as the deadline approached for each edition and it came time to make the decision, there wasn't a consistent pattern in the results.
The challenge was a huge discrepancy between people who voted absentee -- who, according to our survey, strongly favored Freman Hendrix -- and people who went to the polls in person on Tuesday.
Kwame Kilpatrick led among those who voted Tuesday, but not by a large enough margin to overcome the Hendrix vote cast by absentees, our survey showed. However, our results were within the survey's margin of error -- between 5 and 6 percentage points for people who voted Tuesday, and between 4 and 5 percentage points for both absentee and Tuesday voters. Indicator precincts were inconclusive.
In the end, it came down to predicting what proportion of the total vote was cast by absentees. The math said changing the share of absentee vote by just 1 or 2 percentage points changed the outcome of the race.
With memories of the Chicago Tribune's infamous "Dewey Beats Truman" headline, we decided to wait for more complete returns.
DAVID BLOMQUIST Bottom line: the exit polls were wrong ... again...
Original post 1:08 a.m.: It's a great day to be a Democrat (or to be Michael Bloomberg, which essentially is the same thing...) Congrats to Corzine and Kaine for their big victories in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively (sorry Kilgore, you really should have told the Prez to stay away...) Hotline blog has the beeeeautiful results. (Flashback: predictions)
It will probably be tomorrow before we find out if Kwame Kilpatrick can come back from the bling scandals to retake his place as the P.Diddy of mayors... (or is it the Marion Barry of Detroit? Probably better go with Diddy...) The race is still too close to call as of 1 a.m., and there are absentee ballot issues there... Essentially, all the white voters went for the challenger, Hendrix, and Kilpatrick needs about two-thirds of the Black vote to pull it off. Here's the running tally for you political junkies, courtesy of my old buddies at IBS (damn, I used to operate this gizmo... ah, memories...) Hendrix was ahead 51-48 with 61 percent reporting...
Here's the page to watch for the Cali tally. Looks like most of what Arnold wants, Arnold ain't gonna get (with the exception of restrictions on political use of union dues). Interesting for my adopted state (Florida) -- it so far doesn't look good for the redistricting initiative. Look for the same arguments that are likely going to defeat this measure to resurface in the Sunshine State, though with the Dem-GOP players reversed (Gov. Bush not for it, Democrats, who don't control the FL state house, for it, with the exception of Black elected officials, also Dems, who side with Jeb.) BTW a redistricting measure in Ohio failed, too...
here are the OH results:
Initiative 1: economic growth stimulation - YES
Initiative 2: expand access to absentee ballots - NO
Initiative 3: set new limits on political contributions from individuals and PACs - NO
Initiative 4: turn the job of redistricting over to a non-partisan panel - NO
Initiative 5: take the job of administering elections away from Hizzoner Ken Blackwell and future secy's of state, and turn that job over to an appointed panel. - NO
...btw the NO's were on the 70-30 level across the board, while initiative 1 passed by around 54-46...
Texas becomes the 18th state to constitutionally ban gay marriage (FL will probably become the 19th state next year) proving that when its left up to state voters, rather than appeals courts, this issue is mostly a non-starter (outside New England). Texas also approved a proposition denying bail to any person accused of a felony who had previously been released on bail on the same charges. Probably a common sense thing...
Tags: politics, News, elections, 2008, Republicans, Democrats |
posted by JReid @ 10:00 AM   |
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