Hamas ... won ...??? outright...??? hmm... Allow me to adjust what I said before. Hamas winning some seats -- even lots of seats -- would have been a tidal wave, and one which would have clearly changed the negotiating posture of the Quartet and the Israelis. This is more like a tsunami. The very real possibility now exists that Hamas will be the only biggest negotiating game in town (The Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas (of the Fatah party), is still in power, and will be the big man in the new coalition government, so Fatah still has his voice, plus 43 out of 132 seats in Parliament. Also, turns out the U.S. spent $2 million in USAID money to try and help Abbas' party out, boosting the party founded by the man Bush wouldn't even talk to, Yasser Arafat. Not that it worked, Condi... and now Dr. Rice is scampering around trying to get Europe to bail us out again) And the hope that a Hamas that's heavy with the burden of governing will choose politics over war seems more like an imperative. If the Palestinian people are smart, they will keep a firm hand on the mandate they've given to the new guys. The last thing the world needs -- and the Palestinians themselves -- is to have the desperate Palestinian Diaspora looked upon (by more than just the Likudnik Israelis and the neocons in the U.S.) as an Islamist/terrorist state in waiting. Arafat screwed up big time by not taking the deal at Camp David in 2000 (or the second shot at it at Taba in January 2001). And the Fatah crowed blew it by cuddling up to Saddam Hussein. It is now, apparently, Hamas' turn to have a go. Here's hoping they get serious about helping their people get a state, renounce the blustery talk and the violence and come to the table. Worth a re-read: Ian Black's prescient article in the day-before-the-election Guardian... Update: Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian's main negotiator with Israel over the years and whom you frequently see on television as a very coherent spokesman for the Palestinian cause (he's a former journalist, it turns out), won his legislative seat, as did the person I have found the most compelling among the Palestinian leadership over the years, Hanan Ashrawi. Neither of them sounded too hopeful today: Fatah legislator Saeb Erekat said the party does not want to join a Hamas government. "We will be a loyal opposition and rebuild the party," Erekat said, after meeting Abbas.
But Nabil Shaath, another senior Fatah lawmaker, said the party's leadership would make a decision later on Thursday. ... ... Palestinian legislator Hanan Ashrawi, who apparently was re-elected on a moderate platform, said the Hamas victory was a dramatic turning point. She said she is concerned the fighters will now impose their fundamentalist social agenda and lead the Palestinians into international isolation.
She said Fatah's corruption, Israel's tough measures and international indifference to the plight of the Palestinians were to blame for Hamas's strong showing. Some in Hamas were trying to be reassuring:
"Don't be afraid," Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, told the BBC. "Hamas is a Palestinian movement, it is an aware and mature movement, one which is politically open in the Palestinian arena, and to its Arab and Islamic hinterland, and similarly open to the international arena." And clearly, the people who voted for the new guys had one thing on their mind: change. For Maher Riyad, 55, owner of an electrical store, Thursday was a day of celebration. He said Hamas worked for the people and not themselves, and this was why he had voted for them.
"Fatah had opportunity after opportunity, but they squandered them all," said Mr Riyad.
While some Palestinians are concerned that the Islamic nature of Hamas will lead to greater conservatism in Palestinian society, most seem happy that Fatah has been defeated.
This morning in Ramallah, it was almost impossible to find someone who had voted for Fatah.
The party seemed to have been swept from the streets, just as it has been swept from its dominant position in the Palestinian legislature. Unfortunately, the history of "people powered" movements not turning into the same old corruption with different faces isn't too good. And earlier hopes that the PA could attract billions in investment are now teetering. God only knows what happens next. Update: The obligatory Who's who in Hamas (amazing how many of these guys have been Israeli assassination targets...) And a good analysis of the situation from the Times of London. By the way good luck to Israel trying to get the EU to ignore the new Palestinian parliament. Fixing the Balfour mess is a large part of what Britain is all about, and the Germans and other countries are keen to get a settlement as well, I'd guess Hamas or no Hamas, especially if Abbas stays on and tries to form a coalition. If he goes, I guess all bets are off... and Washington hasn't much credibility or sway over there anymore, so I can't see how the Bush administration can improve things. At the least, this election result probably strengthens the extreme right in Israel, and gives the expansionists reason not to negotiate... not good. Tags: Middle East, Palestinian, Elections, Democracy, Fatah, Hamas |
