Right, so I haven't seen all of the movies, but I won't let that stop me! (Actually this is a really tough year... a lot of good films out there.) Anyway, here goes:
Best picture - Brokeback Mountain (**will win)
- Crash (**should win)
- Good Night, and Good Luck (**should win)
- Munich (**should win)
- Capote
Best director - Steven Spielberg - Munich (**should win)
- Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain (**will win)
- Paul Haggis - Crash (**should win)
- Bennett Miller - Capote
- George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck (**should win)
Best actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote (**will win)
- David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
- Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
- Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line (**should win)
- Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow (**should win)
Best actress - Dame Judi Dench - Mrs Henderson Presents
- Felicity Huffman - Transamerica (**will win)
- Charlize Theron - North Country
- Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line (**should win)
- Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice
Best supporting actress - Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
- Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain (**will win)
- Frances McDormand - North Country
- Amy Adams - Junebug
- Catherine Keener - Capote (**possible spoiler)
Best supporting actor - George Clooney - Syriana (**should and will win)
- Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
- Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
- Matt Dillon - Crash (**should win)
- William Hurt - A History of Violence
Best foreign language film - Don't Tell (Italy) Joyeux Noel (France)
- Paradise Now (Palestinian territories) (**will win -- Israelis will be pissed)
- Sophie Scholl - The Final Days (Germany)
- Tsotsi (South Africa)
Best animated feature film - Howl's Moving Castle
- Corpse Bride (**will win)
- Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Best adapted screenplay - Brokeback Mountain (**will win)
- Capote
- The Constant Gardener
- A History of Violence
- Munich (**should win)
Best original screenplay - Crash ** (toss-up)
- Good Night, and Good Luck ** (toss-up, with slight advantage)
- Match Point
- The Squid and the Whale
- Syriana
Best music (score) - Brokeback Mountain (**will win)
- The Constant Gardener
- Memoirs of a Geisha
- Munich (**should win)
- Pride and Prejudice
Best music (song) - In the Deep - Crash ** (should and will win)
- It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp - Hustle and Flow
- Travelin' Thru - Transamerica
The Oscars at the end of the day are about affirmation. Some years they're out to affirm Black people, other years it's about affirming opposition to war or the Bush administration. This year, I think Hollywood is jonesing to affirm gay people, and I'm betting they'll do just that tonight. Now I haven't seen "Capote" or "Brokeback Mountain," so I can't say whether I think the films deserve all the fuss. I'm just predicting they'll get the statues -- "Capote" in the acting category and "Brokeback" for everything else. Unfortunately, I think Spielberg will probably be shut out again, and that the Academy will find a way to reward George Clooney with at least one statue, but not for best pic. There's the predictions. Let's see just how wrong I am tomorrow... Tags: Oscars, Academy Awards |
