Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

From 1979 to 1980, while Jimmy Carter was our president, the economic numbers were indeed dire:

21 percent interest rate;
11 percent unemployment;
12 percent inflation rate;
Gas lines, rationing and OPEC jacking up the price of crude.
There was also the November 4, 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran.
The result?

Carter's approval ratings plummeted – and Teddy Kennedy, sensing political vulnerability, jumped into the race for the 1980 Democratic presidential nomination against an incumbent Democrat president.

By April of 1980, Carter suffered yet another blow when his poorly micromanaged Desert One hostage rescue scheme went sour.

But despite all these setbacks and sour indicators, Carter's approval/disapproval ratings were never as bad as GW Bush's are today.

Why is this?

Today's stock market is again booming. Unemployment is very low. There is – thank goodness – no inflation. And interest rates, while creeping back up, are nowhere near their 1979–1980 high. Yes, gas prices are exploding upwards – and that must hurt. But his ratings were declining before these recent spikes.

So, why is President GW Bush even more unpopular than Jimmy Carter was?

Answer(s):

A) Iraq is an underlying sore point with more and more people. Why? Because it never ends, it never gets better – and we seem to be making no progress whatsoever.

B) Despite the good economic numbers, many people have ‘fear' that the economy is soon going to collapse. There is a pessimism about the future; under President Reagan in the 1980s there was a real underlying optimism about the future. Americans are an inherently optimistic people, so this negativity is hurting Bush and the Congress.

C) Americans feel that our government is totally incompetent. From Iraq's numerous screw-ups – i.e., no body armor, not enough troops, no armor on the vehicles, bad intelligence, CIA leaks, etc. – to Katrina to Dubai Ports to this incredible immigration mess, it sure seems as if our federal government does not have a clue.

D) Shelf life: GW Bush has worn out his welcome. He's been on the scene for almost seven years as either a candidate or as president – and the Bush family had another 12 years in the Reagan and first Bush administrations. The country might just be tired of the Bushes.


Whatever the reasons for this total meltdown of a second-term president, it is remarkable. With no legal underpinning – as Nixon and Clinton had with their impeachment proceedings – Bush's fall is groundbreaking. Sure, other second-term presidents have had dips. But always their ratings rebounded.

Does anyone now believe a bounce upward is even possible for this president?

He seems to lurch from one screw-up to the next – and the recent White House staff changes are merely cosmetic Band-Aids that can and will have little effect.

The fundamental problem is that his credibility is shot, his base is disconsolate and he has no agenda around which to rally anyone.

In sum, he is no longer moving, which in politics is crucial. A candidate – or a president – has to keep moving from idea to issue to event. Just the image of movement keeps the enterprise fresh and new and alive.

The Bush presidency is as dead as his father's was at the end of the first Gulf War.

And it may be too late to save it – or the Republican Party's control of the House of Representatives.