Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

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Tuesday, August 08, 2006
The axis of futility
Arab objections are delaying a proposed U.S.-French compromise resolution at the U.N. over the Israeli-Lebanese crisis. Essentially, America's chief "diplomat" -- who in many ways is also acting as Israel's chief diplomat (though the lack of phone contact between his boss, the president, and Israeli P.M. Ehud Olmert is meant to convey a non-parochial relationship)... brokered a deal that would allow Israel's IDF to occupy southern Lebanon until such time as the French could send in a sufficient force to a) push Hezbollah well behind the Blue line b) stand blythely by as Hezbollah moves its rocket launchers around c) share recipes for crepe suzette with Hezbollah officials.

Well the idea of allowing even a moment of Israeli occupation in Lebanon -- which it occupied for 18 years up until 2000 -- isn't flying with Lebanon, and it isn't flying with the Arab League. From the New Zealand Herald:
UNITED NATIONS - Facing sharp Arab criticism, the United States and France on Monday worked on changes to a draft UN resolution to end the Israeli-Hizbollah conflict, with a vote likely to be delayed until at least Wednesday.

US Ambassador John Bolton told reporters after a session with his French counterpart, Jean-Marc de la Sabliere, "We're still talking about possible changes we can make based on developments in Lebanon today."

De la Sabliere said, "I am going to work today to improve the text. We have to take into account the concerns of all." Lebanon wants the document to call for a quick withdrawal of Israeli troops.

Beirut's acting foreign minister, Tareq Mitri, briefed UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on the Lebanese cabinet decision to send 15,000 troops into the South.

Mitri told reporters the move, combined with an end to the fighting and the start of an Israeli withdrawal, "would enable the Lebanese army, after so many years, to be able to exercise both its duty and its responsibility in extending the authority of the government of Lebanon over its national territory."

Bolton said he thought the Beirut government's decision to deploy troops in the South was a positive development.

Ghanaian Ambassador Nana Effah-Apenteng, the current Security Council president, said the 15-member body would hold a meeting on Tuesday with Arab League representatives traveling to the United Nations to press for amendments. The session makes it unlikely the council will vote before Wednesday.
And from the BBC:
Israel launched about 80 air strikes against Lebanon overnight, as diplomats at the UN consider possible changes to a draft resolution to end the fighting.
More than 40 Hezbollah buildings were targeted after the militant group fired more than 140 rockets on Israel.

At least 15 people were reported killed when a predominantly Shia area of Beirut was hit late on Monday.

Meanwhile an Israeli soldier died in clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said.

Lebanon has told army reservists to report for duty after the cabinet decided to send 15,000 soldiers to the southern border area once the Israelis pull out.

Cabinet ministers who are members of Hezbollah or loyal to the group have given their backing to the government plan.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert described the plan as an "interesting step" and said his government would study it.

He told a news conference that such a move had to be accompanied by the disarming of Hezbollah guerrillas.
Another patented U.N. recipe for inaction. ... and dispair:
The UN security council will almost certainly adopt a ceasefire resolution this week, in spite of objections from Lebanon and others in the Arab world. But diplomats and analysts were united in despair yesterday, expressing doubts that the resolution could stop the fighting.

"It does not look good," one European diplomat said. "There is nobody interested in stopping now. Hizbullah has no reason to stop. The discrepancy between what is being discussed at the diplomatic table and what is happening on the ground is terrible."

They fear the draft resolution may have come too late. There is concern it is too weighted towards Israel and risks destabilising Lebanon's moderate government.
Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, said on Sunday that once there was a resolution in place, it would be clear who was interested in peace and who was not. The assumption behind her words was that Israel would obey the ceasefire call and Hizbullah might not.

But the reality may be that neither side will obey a ceasefire call. The draft resolution would allow Israel to continue "defensive" operations against Hizbullah and for its forces to remain in southern Lebanon. It is doubtful if Israel could, at this stage, accept a ceasefire when Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, has so little to show for almost four weeks of fighting.

Hizbullah could welcome a ceasefire and declare itself victorious, having stood up to the Israelis longer than any Arab army. But the group has said it would not accept any deal that leaves Israel occupying southern Lebanon.

There are face-saving measures available for both sides. If Israel were to secure the release of the two soldiers held by Hizbullah, that would help Mr Olmert persuade the Israeli public the war was justified. If Israel was to hand over Sheba'a Farms, a pocket of land it held after its withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Hizbullah could claim a symbolic victory. But a deal on either is not in the draft resolution.
Meanwhile, why is Tony Blair still talking?

Tags: Israel, Middle East, Hezbollah, Syria, War, Iran,
posted by JReid @ 7:06 AM  


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