Rpbert Novak codifies the horrors contemplated by Republicans in November in his latest political dispatch, reprinted by Human Events. The operative word on GOP prospects of picking up seats in Congress this year: pitiful. Meanwhile:
f Democrats prove that they can hold their leads against the vulnerable GOP districts in the third and fourth columns, then they will press their advantage effectively and probe for more weaknesses until they start winning in seats in the second column of the chart (leans GOP) and even the first (likely Republican Retention). If this happens, it will be like a dike bursting for the GOP. Too many holes will appear to be plugged up, and Democrats will almost certainly take the House. Then we will have concrete reasons to expect a 25 or 26 seat GOP loss.
Key to Democrats' victory, again, will be the removal of their own marginal incumbents from their endangered condition. The less spent by Democrats on their own seats, the more they can spend unseating the many marginal Republicans. No matter how they play it, Republican strategists cannot effectively play defense everywhere.
From the perspective of contested races, Democrats are clearly at the controls. They have two main obstacles to overcome, from a big-picture perspective: The first is their decisive technological and methodological disadvantage when it comes to voter turnout, demonstrated in the 2004 election. The second is the irrelevance of the Democratic National Committee, whose cash-on-hand total is currently less than that of some Senate campaigns.
Still, the money they do have is in the competent hands of DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), not those of Howard Dean.
Not that Republicans won't try every trick in the book, like calling anyone who criticizes the war in Iraq a Nazi-era appeasers and advocates of retreat...
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"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788
