Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

Think at your own risk.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Respect, and sympathy, for Lebanon

As a cold peace settles over Lebanon...

People on both sides of the Blue Line are hoping for the best, as the U.N.'s belated deal to halt hostilities takes effect (as of midnight Monday).

The ceasefire comes after Hezbollah's biggest launch day -- 250 rockets into Israel, and after Israel's worst day of military casualties, with 31 soldiers killed on the march to the Litani River, and a helicopter shot down with 5 crewmen missing.

No one is sure this is over, but for now, it appears that Israeli and Lebanese children can have a few days, at least, to play outside.

The Israel-Hezbollah battle has raised the profile of tiny Lebanon in the Xenophobic west, and for me, it has incresed both my knowledge of, and respect for, the people and government of Lebanon -- and notice I said Lebanon, not Hezbollah ... so back off, cranks. ... In particular, I have been impressed by the raw emotion and intelligence of two figures, Cultural minister-cum-acting Foreign Minister Dr. Tareq Mitri, a learned, sober man who deeply understands both the angels and demons of religion, and how they play into the conflict, and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, head of a weak coalition government caught between the overbearing Syrians, the cruel Israelis, the meddling Iranians and the rash, selfish Hezbollah, and whose emotion and obvious love for his country and countrymen stood Lebanon in good stead as the bastion of democracy that the American administration hoped the Cedar Revolution would bring. Siniora and his cabinet's decision to deploy 15,000 troops to the south probably saved his country from total devastation at the hands of the Israelis, as did some solid diplomacy with the French (who still understand the virtues of honest brokerage, which the Americans, under the Sharon-beguiled Mr. Bush, have apparently forgotten. ...

And amid all the dying, and the controversies, I think these two men have stood tall. Of course, the conflict is not over, but my sympathy, and prayers, are with Lebanon today. On August 8, when a ceasefire still seemed a long way off, blogger Abu Kais at From Beirut to the Beltway summed things up very, very well:

Fouad Siniora, long paralyzed by an inane National Dialogue and Bashar's Lebanese orcs, found his legs yesterday, with a little behind the scenes help from France and Saad Hariri. His speech at the Arab Foreign ministers meeting brought tears to the eyes of many, including the supporters of the Arab world's vicarious resistance against Israel. Siniora's Arab tears made Hizbullah's Iranian weapons look marginal. While it's too early to declare Siniora as the face of a new Arabism, the man's dedication to his country, and his steadfastness and political wizardry may well be what this region long needed: a fresh start. Bashar and his Iranian friends have been dealt a severe blow by Siniora's decision to send the Lebanese army south. Not even Hizbullah could object.

Siniora knows who is destroying his country. One force is Israel. But the second force is Iran and its new proxy state, Assad's Syria. Hizbullah and Israel put him in a difficult position. They made his fight for his country's independence look like treason. But he persevered, and soon he found the means: Cabinet consensus and the Arab League. Absorb Hizbullah by acknowledging their resistance, but don't let them absorb you.
Saniora on Tuesday praised Hezbollah's resistance, but said it was time for Lebanon to "impose its full control, authority and presence" over the war-weary country. "There will be no authority, no one in command, no weapons other than those of the Lebanese state," he said on Al-Arabiya television.
Siniora yesterday looked like the leader no Arab country has ever had, offering a better alternative to the misguided "resistance" plague swallowing the region's youth.
We do not want the Lebanese state and the Lebanese people to remain the punch bag of Israel or anyone else (Read Iran and Syria). We are determined not to be the arena for conflicts and confrontations from now on, whatever the justification… We are basing our arguments on the sorrows of the widowed women, the dead children, the wounded and the homeless people… (Naharnet)
"Our Arabness is not conditional. It is not by force, but a choice," he added. The significance of these statements should not be missed. Bashar can no longer get away with waving his brand of Arab nationalism in our faces, using it to justify his murders, and to keep us in a state of war and fear. Arabism should not be a political tool of oppression or ignoring the suffering of your own people. It should be the key to our political independence.

And from Israel, blogger Allison of Isreality, tells a tale of teenage and parental frustration and fear:

It was supposed to be the highlight of camp: “Survivor Day.” Inspired by the TV show of the same name, the campers arose at 5 a.m. and prepared for a full day of managing outdoors on their wits. There were a variety of water challenges planned - a critical concession given the 90-degree plus heat - ranging from jumping on and off rafts to wet and wild tug of wars.

Everything was going swimmingly, so to speak, until - in the middle of all the fun - four long-range Hezbollah missiles from Lebanon landed about a kilometer from where the campers were frolicking in the local water hole, giving Survivor Day an unexpected and entirely unwanted twist.

For the past 12 days, our 12-year-old daughter, Merav, has been having the time of her life at her first overnight camping experience. The setting was Kibbutz Shluchot just south of Bet Shean in the northern Jordan Valley. “Everyday there’s something different,” Merav told us one night by phone. “You never know what to expect.” ….The Khaibars landed in the Mount Gilboa forests between Bet Shean and Afula. As soon as I heard the news (since the war started over a month ago, I have been obsessively monitoring the Internet, checking in no less than once every five minutes), I pulled out a map. Whereas the previous round of missiles fired into the Bet Shean area sailed mostly over the town and nearby Kibbutz Shluchot - setting off alarms, but touching ground a good deal away near the West Bank city of Jenin - this time, they were daringly close to a camp full of kids outdoors, who not coincidentally, were also miles from the nearest bomb shelter.

The phone soon rang. It was Merav. She was clearly in tears; I could feel her shoulders heaving up and down in the tremble of her voice. “They’re canceling camp,” she said. “We’re coming home tonight. They said it’s not safe here anymore.”

I didn’t know exactly how to respond. It’s hard enough parenting a teenage daughter in ordinary times and Merav’s emotions are already volatile; I never know if she’s going to take a comment in stride or launch into a sequence of ceremonial door slamming.
Should I try to comfort her, ask her how she was feeling and if she was scared? Or should I act all nonchalant and normal and say what a shame it was that camp was ending early, letting her initiate any heavy-duty discussion?

I looked for clues in Merav’s words. “And today was supposed to be the best day of camp, too,” she said. I sensed less shaking now and more of a pout. That seemed to call for a laid-back direction. “That’s such a bummer,” I said, picking my words carefully. “I know you were really looking forward to it.”

“But I’m scared, Abba.”

“You are?” I said, confused now by the rapid change of course. “Well, what was it like?”

“We heard this whistling sound, it was more like a ‘whoosh,’ then we thought we saw a light in the sky - I’m not sure - it was almost like a shooting star in the middle of the day - and then there were these big ‘booms’ and we saw all this smoke going up from the other side of the mountain. We had to duck under these picnic tables for, like 15 minutes, and we were all wet and it was muddy.”

“That must have been awful,” I intoned caringly. “No wonder you were scared!”

“And now you’re going to have a big load of clothes to wash!” Merav barked, a sprig of sarcasm back in her voice.

My parenting instinct was being ping-ponged all over the table. I needed to pick a strategy: casual or concern. But Merav had decided for me. “I have to go now,” Merav interrupted my game of mental table tennis. “We need to pack. We’re coming home tonight. Bye.”

Let's hope it's over for both sides, starting today.

And now, in Israel and in Lebanon, it's almost all over, but the spin. From Ha'aretz, senior Israeli ministers say Hezbollah is now a "beaten force":

Senior cabinet minister Haim Ramon said Monday that as a result of the war in the north, Hezbollah is a "beaten" force that is entirely changed.

The justice minister also said that the terms of the UN cease-fire could spur a fundamental change in Lebanon, and that that was the objective of the war as pursued by Israel.

"Despite whatever claims Nasrallah may make in victory speeches, Hezbollah today is an entirely different Hezbollah, he told Army radio, referring to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"This is a beaten Hezbollah, entirely different in real terms, both on the ground and also from the international standpoint," he told Army Radio.

Others disagree, of course. And Israeli colunnist Shmuel Rosner begs to differ ... at least somewhat. And he does the obligatory winners and losers:

The war-guide to winners and losers

Israel: Certainly not a winner. "Her people said she did Israel a favor," I wrote today about Secretary Rice, "as it sought a way to stop the bloodshed without seeming to surrender. She saved Israel from itself." Read my analysis here. The Israelis are those who paid the price. Running for cover while burying the dead.

Hezbollah: Certainly not a loser. "Siniora's government would not order the army to fight Hezbollah for fear of civil war breaking out again," writes Zvi Bar'el here.

The Lebanese: My Lebanese friend wrote me a couple of days ago: "Destroying Lebanon will do you no good; all you're doing is nurturing additional hate towards the Israelis." I have not yet answered. I don't really know what to say.

Syria: A senior Defense Department official told me Wednesday that The U.S. is troubled by what official termed "a rise in Syria's self-confidence." This says it all. Read the rest of what he said here.

Iran: Haaretz' Yoel Marcus phrased it exactly right: "Neither a political accord nor a military victory will change the situation as long as Iran is around, controlling the height of the flames." Read him here.

U.S.: "The fact that the United States has spent major diplomatic capital providing Israel with an unprecedented window of opportunity to deal with Hezbollah, facing down both its European allies and the Arab League, and complicating efforts to launch multilateral sanctions against Iran, makes matters [namely, an Israeli loss] even worse," wrote David B. Rivkin Jr. and Lee A. Casey, echoing an article written by Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post a couple of days ago (The Haaretz piece here, the Post piece here). I think it is an overstatement, but nevertheless reflects a sentiment that should be taken seriously.

Security Council: There's not one sentence in Yossi Sarid's article with which I agree - except for this one: "Every time I hear about the "international community" and the United Nations and its Security Council, I exchange my tears for cynical laughter." You can read it here.

Olmert: The sentiment is the one expressed in Ari Shavit's article today: "You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power" (Read here). Reality is of course more complicated. Who exactly is going to replace him? Olmert was elected because no other alternative was in sight - and he will probably stay for the same reason.

Siniora: The jury is still out mulling the future of Lebanon's Prime Minister. But "This man, who broke down during the conference of Arab foreign ministers in Beirut this week, has managed to surprise everyone," writes Zvi Bar'el. Read it here.

Bush: He is probably disappointed. And for good reasons.

Rice: "Some on the right flank of the Bush administration feel Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was too hasty in aligning with French demands for a cease-fire," I wrote today. Her relations with Israel will not be as casual as they have thus far. ...