NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday that Condi Rice was a bit irked during her chat with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who apparently was speaking Yiddish with his colleagues during their meeting. That wasn't the problem, though. The problem, according to Mitchell, was what they were saying. Mitchell reported that while Olmert was making peace sounds to Rice, he was telling his colleagues that the war would not only continue, it would escalate. And the Likudniks talk about Arabs saying one thing to the West and another to "the street."
There are also reports that the U.S. has lost so much credibility in the region that Israel is apparently reaching out to the Russians to try and get them to intervene with Syria, who they then hope will intercede with Hezbollah. And who has the most leverage on the ground right now, including being the likely providor of most of the troops for this coming international "security force?" ... that would be the French.
Now to today's developments. Israel may have put itself in such a tight box with its overwrought offensive against Lebanon (even some American Jews supportive of Israel are wincing, and suggesting Israelis begin thinking Marshall Plan...) that it cannot now salvage the world public opinion that has turned so sharply against it. Given that, one of two things could happen:
1. Israel could become more amenable to making a deal -- and to that point, Haaretz is reporting that the Olmert government has told British wimp Prime Minister Tony Blair that a ceasefire could come as soon as Saturday, if a stabilisation force can be put in place that quickly. Also, reports the moderate Israeli daily:
Also Monday, government and defense officials said that Israel will release two Lebanese prisoners in return for the two soldiers abducted by Hezbollah as part of a cease-fire agreement.
The sources added that the UN Security Council would call for a cease-fire in Lebanon on Friday, and it could take effect as early as Saturday.
Alternatively, the fighting might continue for a few more days.
Immediately after soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were captured, Olmert said that Israel would not negotiate a prisoner exchange for their release - a position he also took following the abduction of Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit in the Gaza Strip. Olmert's position received international support in the concluding statement issued by the G-8 summit, which called for the unconditional return of all Israeli captives.
However, with the fighting still ongoing, government and military sources said recently that Israel would find it difficult to insist on this position in negotiating a cease-fire.
The sources said that Israel would apparently agree to release Abu Amra Mamad, convicted of weapons possession, plus one illegal alien. It will not agree to release Palestinians. A government source added that Israel would also refuse to release Samir Kuntar, who murdered the Haran family and a police officer in Nahariya in 1979. In the last prisoner exchange with Hezbollah, the "Tennenbaum deal" of January 2004, it was agreed that Kuntar would be released only in exchange for information about missing airman Ron Arad.
2. Or, Israel could harden its position and use this opportunity to strengthen its hold on occupied Syrian/Lebanese territory, and will not stop its crushing offensive against Lebanon. In fact, the conflict on the ground is escalating. From the same Haaretz article:
On Saturday, Olmert rejected a proposal by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Israel agree to discuss a withdrawal from Shaba Farms, on the slopes of Mount Hermon, as a gesture to strengthen the Lebanese government headed by Fouad Siniora. Olmert told Rice that there was no reason for an Israeli concession on Shaba, since Israel has already completely fulfilled the UN's demand that it withdraw from Lebanon - a fact affirmed by the Security Council in 2000.
Kofi Annan told Jack Straw of his anger at Britain's stance on the conflict in a phone call last Wednesday to the former foreign secretary, it emerged last night. The UN secretary general rang Mr Straw hours after Britain and the US blocked a call for an immediate ceasefire at the Rome summit, and a day after Israel bombed a UN monitoring position, killing four observers. Two days later Mr Straw broke rank publicly, attacking Israel's "disproportionate" actions.
A spokesman for Mr Straw confirmed that Mr Annan had called him but said Mr Straw had no comment. A spokeswoman for Mr Annan said he had called Mr Straw for a private conversation.
"It was a personal call, there was no note taker," she said. "But the reports about him trying to pry Blair away [from the US] on Lebanon are false."
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done = request.form("done")
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done = "No"
%>
Tell a friend
<%
Else
if request.form("done") = "Yes" then
'sets variables
dim email, sendmail
email = request.form("email")
Set sendmail = Server.CreateObject("CDONTS.NewMail")
'put the webmaster address here
sendmail.From = "webmaster@aspbasics.com"
'The mail is sent to the address entered in the previous page.
sendmail.To = email
'Enter the subject of your mail here
sendmail.Subject = "Check out this website"
'send a specific page or send a site url
dim url
'url = Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
url = "http://www.aspbasics.net"
'This is the content of the message.
sendmail.Body = "Site recommendation from a friend!" & _
vbCrlf & vbCrlf & "A friend has sent you this email and thought you would should check out this site." & _
vbCrlf & url & vbCrlf
'this sets mail priority.... 0=low 1=normal 2=high
sendmail.Importance = 1
sendmail.Send 'Send the email!
response.redirect Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
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End if
End if
%>
"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788
