| Tuesday, October 24, 2006 |
| Even Steven? |
After trailing by double digits pretty much since the beginning of time, Tampa Congressman Jim Davis has suddenly pulled into a statistical tie with Jeb Bush's annointed successor, current A.G. Charlie Crist, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, which shows Crist up by just 46-44, with 8 percent undecided and an even more interesting 11 percent saying they could still change their minds before election day. What gives? Could be that Davis finally started airing television ads, which helped him drastically reduce the "who the heck is Jim Davis?" factor among registered voters. Davis' 15-second spots are hellafied late, and he still has no real presence on radio (including our radio station, where the Dems have yet to air a single spot) ... but at least he's on TV. Two interesting findings from the poll: the key to Davis' forward momentum is two-fold -- independents and women:
The change from an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University, showing Crist ahead 53 - 43 percent, is almost all because of a 21-point shift to Rep. Davis among independent voters who went from 50 - 43 percent for Crist to 50 - 36 percent for Davis. Davis leads among Democrats 74 - 19 percent, while Crist is ahead among Republicans 85 - 8 percent. ...
...There also is a large gender gap, with men backing the Republican 56 - 34 percent and women backing the Democrat 54 - 38. ...
..."Although women generally vote more Democratic and men more Republican, the size of the gender gap in the governor's race is extraordinary.
"In the last two weeks, Davis has hit a chord with women. He had been tied with Crist among female voters; now he leads by 16 points. It isn't enough to offset Crist's 22 point lead among men, but it has gotten him back in the game," said Brown. Davis still has a major problem, that at this point, I still think will be fatal for his candidacy, and it's that 19 percent of Democratic voters who are crossing over to Crist. And that includes some Black voters, who are proving to be much warmer toward Chain Gang Charlie than they are toward the man whose handpicked successor he is -- Jeb Bush. Meanwhile, on the "I heard that!" tip, Alcee Hastings says Davis is just too nicey-nicey (in other words, he's a typical white-gloved Dem):
Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings of Miramar said Saturday that it's a good thing he's not running for governor against Republican Charlie Crist.
Some say that the Democratic nominee, Jim Davis, could be tougher on Crist.
"I'm not as nice as Jim Davis,'' Hastings told about 50 black elected officials and clergy members gathered in Lauderhill. "I would rip the hide off of him.'' I heard that!
Another interesting thing in the Q-poll: Democratis supporting Jim Davis are much more partisan than Republicans, with 46% saying they support Davis based on his stand on issues versus 39% who cite his party and just 2% who cite his experience, while 48% of Crist voters cite his stand on issues, with just 15% citing his political party and 22% citing his experience as their main reason for supporting the sitting attorney general for governor. Just 7% of Crist supporters cite his "personal qualities" versus a minuscule 3% of Davis backers.
And speaking of Jeb, the split is 46%-45% on whether Florida likely voters want to continue his policies or change direction. Among Republicans, the split is 81%-14% in favor of staying the course, for Dems it's 74%-20% the other way, and independents go 40% for continuing Jeb's policies, 45% for change, and a high 16% who aren't sure. Most men say stay the course (57%-34%) and women say no way (55%-36%).
So who has the advantage? I'd still say Charlie Crist, but the two men debate tonight, and Davis is clearly closing the gap, so anything could happen.
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Tags: Florida politics, Florida, Republicans, GOP, Charlie Crist, Jim Davis |
posted by JReid @ 6:10 AM   |
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