Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

Nathan Gonzales, of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said it is a potential unexpected easy pickup for Democrats desperate to reassert their role in national politics.

"Foley was a strong incumbent with plenty of money," Gonzales said. "It was a long shot for Democrats."

But his resignation amid questions about explicit messages he exchanged with a teenage boy over the Internet has changed everything, Gonzales said.

Now, Highlands County Democrat Tim Mahoney becomes the favorite in the race because Republicans cannot replace Foley's name on the ballot.

"The ramifications of this could change the entire country," said Charlotte County Republican Party Chairman Bob Starr.

If Democrats win control of the House by one seat and Mahoney's seat is among those that turn Democrat, it will be hard to accept, Starr said.

It is not the only race that has changed the viewpoint of national political watchers.

The battle to replace U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, R-Longboat Key, in the 13th Congressional District had already emerged as an unexpected hot race. In that contest, Republican Vern Buchanan is trying to overcome a bruising primary and defeat Democrat Christine Jennings, a retired Sarasota banker.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, which includes all of Sarasota and most of Manatee County. But Jennings had pushed ahead of Buchanan in some early polling, suggesting Buchanan may have been hurt by a barrage of negative attacks from his primary election foes.

The other top-notch race is in Fort Lauderdale, where Democrat Ron Klein is challenging incumbent Rep. E. Clay Shaw, a Republican.

Although the district is in Republican hands, voters there favored Democrats John Kerry and Al Gore in each of the last two presidential elections. ...

... Starr said Republicans will have to convince people to vote for the disgraced Foley with the idea that the vote will count toward a candidate not on the ballot.

"It's going to be very difficult to do," Starr said.

Although state party officials are leaning toward naming state Rep. Joe Negron as the replacement candidate, Starr said he would lobby for state Rep. Paige Kreegel, R-Punta Gorda.

Regardless of who the replacement is, Sabato said the party will have a hard time convincing people to vote for Foley to keep the seat in Republicans hands.

"I'd say it's near impossible," [Larry] Sabato said. "Who's going to want to do that?"

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• Did the media participate in the Foley cover-up?
• Foley's parting shot
• Grand Old Pedophile protectors
• The unraveling of Mark Foley
• Sicko