 As Fidel Castro's health continues to decline, the inevitable questions of what will happen when the Cuban dictator finally kicks the bucket -- of health failure, by the way, and not at the hands of the American government, who have been out to get him for four decades -- are rushing to the forefront.
The U.S. military is making plans to handle a possible mass exodus from the island, by housing refugees on Guantanamo Bay, which we continue, oddly, to lease from the hated Castro regime (the lease predates the dictator by nearly 60 years).
And there are signs that the Castro brothers are formulating plans of their own, for succession, stability and "continuity of dictatorial government..."
Meanwhile, everyone is watching the Miami street, which will erupt in celebration (probably led by Congresswoman Ros Lehtinen, who would have to console herself that Castro wasn't assassinated by pondering the possibile property acquisitions that could be hers if the price is right, and the Cubans decide to go back to the good old days of mob controlled casinos and American sugar plantations...) and that could shut down Miami, which is something like 60 percent Cuban-American...
Added to all this drama is the trial of an anti-Castro militant (were he of Middle Eastern origin, we'd call him a terrorist) Luis Posada, who has been known to blow up an Havana disco or two in search of Libertad! for his country. A witness against him in his trial for sneaking into the U.S. with two other banditos, recently found a pipe bomb under his truck.
Ah, seems the exile community hasn't grown all that much since the days of Orlando Bosch (the 1978 Cuban airline bomber who was pardoned by Pappy Bush in 1990 at the behest of his golden boy, Jeb) ... Posada has strong support in the militant wing of the exile community, at least when it's not fighting over children's school books...
As you probably can tell, I see no good guys in the Cuba issue. Castro is a dictator, straight up, no chaser. He has lorded over that country simply because he wishes to, for far too long, under the typical leftista guise of "having to remain" as the shepherd for his people, who after all, cannot practice proper socialismo on their own (after all, who can?) But American (and Cuban exile) designs on that island are hardly stemming from pure hearts or clean motives. The U.S. wants back its private plantations and casinos, and would love to control the natural resources of that island, as we did before the revolution (hellooooo, Big Sugar!) And the more "Spaniard" of the exiles, many of whom fled the island and left their rich haciendas behind, with the full intention of returning someday to claim their property from the great unwashed (their former servants) who live in the mansions now, cut up into apartments) are looking to regain ownership and domination of the "negritos."
 Throw in the nasty tactics of the exile militants over the years, which include real life terrorism against any Cuban who dares not support the counter-revolution, and it becomes clear that in the case of Cuba, there is no high ground.
And then, there's the fact that Cuba is not some isolated Socialist outpost. It now has friends -- countries that the U.S. once pushed rightward but which are now solidly leftist and anti-US: Nicaragua (which has back Manuel Noriega -- sorry, Olly North, Venezuela, whose president calls our president the devil, plus Argentina, Chile, most recently Bolivia, and on and on... (When historians study the Bush presidency, the debacle in Iraq will dominate, but a proper sub-headline will be how this president, after his father's pretty good strides in the region, lost Latin America... through a combination of bullying over Iraq, and benign neglect.)
This leftist Latin world has embraced Cuba and Fidelism, and they will continue to prop up a socialist government even if it's run by the possibly weaker Raul, encouraging even a new-looking Havana regime to maintain its anti-U.S. positioning.
With all this in the mix, the outcome for the U.S. can't be good, even with the hated Fidel gone.
Labels: Bush administration, Cuba, Fidel Castro, foreign policy, U.S. |
