We're starting to see the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's end-game in the taking of those 15 British Royal Navy and Marine personnel, as Tehran releases not just more propaganda video of the sailors supposedly confessing to trespassing in Iranian waters, but also letters from one of the hostages -- I guess "detainees" is more politically correct, though I think both are accuarate descriptors -- supposedly calling on Tony Blair to withdraw British forces from Iraq.
But the latest gambit from the Iranians (which may or may not be under the direction of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) is probably the bottom line: Iran is now seeking to exchange the Britons for five Iranian intelligence officers being detained by the Americans after the latter captured the former inside Iraq. That's already been rejected by the U.S., but it gives you a window into the Iranians' strategy, which likely included the premeditated seizure of the Brits.
So what is Tony Blair doing about all of this? Appealing to the E.U. for help, and reportedly, fuming. Well, that will help...
Meanwhile, some Britons are calling for a change in tactics, namely the ratcheting up of pressure on Tehran by the E.U., which is Iran's largest trading partner, and which enjoys greater respect by the Iranians than the British, given the war in Iraq. And speaking of Iraq, the editorialists at the Independent add insult to British injury:
...there is a bigger problem here than clumsy diplomacy. Quite simply, Iran is holding most of the cards. Because of the catastrophe in Iraq, the UK has no real diplomatic leverage in the region. Tony Blair calls the Iranian action illegal in international law and cites the United Nations mandate for the presence of British forces in Iraq. But the US and Britain invaded Iraq ignoring the will of the UN. The former UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, called the action illegal. Mr Blair has little moral authority when he cites international law now. It is notable that the UN statement stopped short of deploring the Iranian action, as requested by Britain. It also makes no mention of Security Council resolution 1723 that authorises the coalition presence in Iraq. The wounds opened by the foolish invasion of Iraq by the US and the UK have not healed.
The American sabre-rattling over Iran's nuclear programme has raised the stakes, too. It is increasingly clear from the preposterous letters that Ms Turney has been forced to write that hardline elements in Tehran want to use this incident as part of a wider propaganda war against Britain and America. But we also ignore Tehran's paranoia at our peril. British ministers never mention that US forces have Iranian territory more or less surrounded. America is in Iraq, Afghanistan and recently they have moved two aircraft carriers to the Gulf. ...
The Iranians are clearly paranoid, but also crafty. They likely know that the Brits don't have the wherewithal to attack them militarily, and the U.S. has been revealed to be far from invincible in Iraq (much the way Israel was exposed by the Lebanon conflict.) So Iran clearly feels it can take a calculated risk by trying to force the U.S. and the Brits into a diplomatic corner.
The trouble is, George W. Bush is not the most stable or thoughtful character out there, and it could be that he decides to use the U.K.-Iran crisis as a means to start his next project for a new American century... and to force a clearly reluctant and disappointed Britain to go along.
Institute for Policy Studies fellow and Middle East expert Phyllis Bennis has said the following on that prospect:
"The U.S. is continuing to ratchet up threats against Iran. The current standoff in the Gulf between Iran and Britain may well not have been a deliberate British provocation, beyond the 'normal' provocative nature of the U.S.-British strategy of boarding and 'inspecting' ships, etc., but that doesn't mean it isn't dangerous."
"Blair isn't so keen on an attack on Iran; his rhetoric even after the sailors were captured has been remarkably low-key, and a move against Iran could threaten his already-shaky political standing. The Shatt al-Arab waterway is always a difficult navigation point, even aside from political tensions, and this kind of move has happened before and blown over in a few days. However, it's likely the Cheney gang is pushing Britain to escalate, to make this Tonkin Gulf II (the false claim of a North Vietnamese attack used to justify the Vietnam war in 1964), though it doesn't appear Blair/Brown are biting yet. But, once again, having said all THAT, things are very tense and could easily spin out of control."
Related: Could show trials be on the way in Tehran?
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