is that nothing is predictable. I won't even attempt to call the Democratic caucus results in Iowa. If it snows really badly, I'd put my money on Edwards' union supporters being the most likely to show up. If it's great weather, I'd bet Hillary's middle aged and older women will show. If Obama gets those young Starbucks sippers to actually caucus, his superiority in terms of supporter enthusiasm will carry the day. Oh, and everybody likes Joe Biden. (The New York Times today describes the state of the Democratic race in Iowa as one of "happy paralysis.")
Obama, for his part, seems to be benefiting from better relations with the second tier -- Kucinich is already telling his supporters to caucus for Obama (not that there are many of them) and the WaPo is reporting today about a possible Biden-Obama deal to help Biden best Bill Richardson. It goes something like this:
A source close to the Biden campaign described a possible arrangement, now under discussion between the two camps, that could apply to certain precincts where Biden can't meet the 15 percent viability threshold, but where he is backed by local officials with the clout to move Biden supporters to Obama. In return, Biden could capture some of Obama's overflow in precincts where the Illinois senator has more than enough support to win.
Of course the details are secret, but team Biden knows exactly how much support it needs, and where, for the Delaware senator to finish fourth, ideally in double digits. Biden's poor showing in one public poll after another has confounded many Hawkeye political observers, given the large and enthusiastic crowds he draws, along with his impressive foreign policy resume. But while Biden was unable to raise the money needed to build the statewide ground organization needed to contend here, he did cultivate key relationships across rural Iowa. And some of these state and local officials have informed the campaign that they are backing Obama as their second choice.
A fourth place finish would not turn Biden into a favorite for the nomination, but it would allow him to participate in the Democratic debate on Saturday in New Hamsphire, one last chance for the political veteran to make his mark.
The Biden source described the possible Obama deal as "viability for victory." Meanwhile, the WaPo's Dana Milbank asks, is Barack Obama another Howard Dean?
Who knows. But if he wins Iowa, I'd bet that he either wins or comes very close to winning in Independent-rich New Hampshire and then that means he probably wins South Carolina, too. Hillary would then have to pull a Rudy Giuliani, winning Michigan (where Edwards is strong, and the vote is early) and Florida.
The biggest pressure today has to be on Camp Hillary. If Senator Clinton loses big in Iowa, her road to the nomination becomes a marathon, and her inevitability is shattered. She must win or come very close today. Period.
On the GOP side (which I'm much less sick of at this point,) the nomination has become an all-out cat fight.
Romney must do well enough in Iowa and win New Hampshire, or he cannot buy the nomination.
Huckabee will probably win Iowa (that's my only prediction today) but probably cannot win New Hampshire. But he could take South Carolina, and maybe even Florida.
Rudy ... why even talk about him until Florida?
Ron Paul rocks, but once the voting starts, he stops being interesting (not to me, but to the press)...
<%
dim done
done = request.form("done")
if done = "" then
done = "No"
%>
Tell a friend
<%
Else
if request.form("done") = "Yes" then
'sets variables
dim email, sendmail
email = request.form("email")
Set sendmail = Server.CreateObject("CDONTS.NewMail")
'put the webmaster address here
sendmail.From = "webmaster@aspbasics.com"
'The mail is sent to the address entered in the previous page.
sendmail.To = email
'Enter the subject of your mail here
sendmail.Subject = "Check out this website"
'send a specific page or send a site url
dim url
'url = Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
url = "http://www.aspbasics.net"
'This is the content of the message.
sendmail.Body = "Site recommendation from a friend!" & _
vbCrlf & vbCrlf & "A friend has sent you this email and thought you would should check out this site." & _
vbCrlf & url & vbCrlf
'this sets mail priority.... 0=low 1=normal 2=high
sendmail.Importance = 1
sendmail.Send 'Send the email!
response.redirect Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
'Response.write ("Sent to ") & email
End if
End if
%>
"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788
