Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

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Thursday, January 03, 2008
Winners and losers ...

(Bumped) Tonight's winners are pretty straightforward:

- Barack Obama - big win (8 points), great speech, press corps love, and huge momentum coming out of Iowa.
- Mike Huckabee - big win, (9 points), press corps love, and he still manages to get low expectations in New Hampshire, leaving room for this man from Hope to declare himself the "comeback kid" if he comes in a decent second.
- Ed Rollins - he finally jumped on a winning campaign (Huckabee's), after that Katherine Harris disaster...
- Cornell West (and not just because I absolutely love the guy, for his mind, of course!) - he was an Obama guy before being an Obama guy was cool.
- Florida Sen. Fredrica Wilson - for the same reason as Cornell West. Ditto other Black pols who bucked the establishment. ... at least tonight...
- Small money - Huckabee spent just $1.4 million, versus $7 million for Mitt.
- Big money - Barack out-spent Hillary $9 million to $7 million, although I doubt that's what won it for him.
- Evangelicals - they don't rule the GOP, but they rule the Iowa GOP...
- The Washington press corps / mainstream media - they hate Hillary with a passion, and set out to take her down, starting with that Philadelphia debate. They succeeded in triggering her self-destruction.)
- Chris Matthews - same reason as above)
- Positivity - apparently, Iowa voters like it
- Democrats - turnout on our side was up a whopping 80 percent. Republicans beware. Who knew that Iowa has more registered Democrats than Republicans, and more Indepedents than the other two? Iowa is officially in play in November...
- Young voters - who said they don't show up to caucus? You GO boys and girls!
- Race neutrality - Sorry, Chris Matthews, but Obama's appeal to White voters isn't that he represents multiculturalism, so much as the fact that he represents a departure from racial identity politics.
- Likeability - it might be the new buzzword for the 2008 campaign.
- Michael Eric Dyson - look for his bookings on cable news shows to skyrocket.
- Change - generational, policy and otherwise

And the losers?

- Hillary Clinton - for obvious reasons, although her concession speech was very gracious.
- Bill Clinton - I love the guy, but he didn't make the difference for his wife in the end, and the same generational, sweeping change that he and Al Gore represented in 1992 may be coming back to bite the missus in the unmentionables. That and there's a new Man from Hope.
- Mitt Romney - equally obvious, and he now MUST win New Hampshire to remain viable, since South Carolina and Florida are not in his bailiwick, shall we say...
- John Edwards - He needed to win tonight and didn't, and the union vote didn't hook him up. Also, his speech included an attack on not just Mitt Romney, but also his fellow Dem, Hillary Clinton ("two candidates in this race thought their money could buy them victory...") meaning he still thinks negative campaigning and fratricide is the key to victory. Not a good look. And he failed to congratulate Barack during his "concession speech." I guess you can give a guy a $400 haircut but you can't buy him class.
- Ed Rollins - he apparently let loose at a restaurant and was overheard by a Townhall blogger trashing the competition. For some reason he strikes me as a guy who drinks a lot ...
- Huckabee hating RedStaters, and the "FisCons" and "DefCons" (fiscal and defense conservatives) who love them.
- The Congressional Black Caucus, which has mostly gone into the tank for Hillary, and whose members will now face the uncomfortable prospect of heading to South Carolina to campaign for Mrs. Clinton, even as the Obama juggernaut steams toward the 30-40% Black southern primary.
- The civil rights establishment, which has dissed Barack to the point of hateration (that includes Revs Sharpton and Jackson, Andrew Young, and others who have been dissing Barack from day one.)
- Black self-doubt Why do we need to wait for White voters to endorse Barack before we feel comfortable supporting him?
- Pat Robertson, who is totally discredited as a Christian "leader," having missed the Huckabee bandwagon as it passed him by, instead endorsing the most irreligious, amoral candidate in the pack... (and he's a nut.)
- Rudy - good luck getting any headlines between now and California, sport. And you might want to check the latest polling out of Florida...
- George W. Bush - Huckabee has been the most critical of his policies with the exception of Ron Paul, and he won in a state where Republicans still give Dubya high approval ratings.
- Mrs. Michael Eric Dyson (she has to hear her husband gloat -- a lot -- tonight)
- The Washington press corps / mainstream media - they called Hillary inevitable
- Unions - they failed to make the difference for Edwards tonight, and exit polls show John-boy didn't even get a majority of union members who did caucus.
- Lefty bloggers, lefty journos, and both real, and fake ... lefty radio hosts (... Ed Schultz) - they worship John Edwards because of his real? hard left rhetoric, and while their nemesis, Hillary stumbled tonight, their Johnny is finished, whether he has accepted it yet or not.
- Experience - apparently, it doesn't always count for everything...
- Conventional wisdom. Throw it out. Obama could win this thing.

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posted by JReid @ 11:56 PM  
ReidBlog: The Obama Interview
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