The superdelegates may not matter after all, and (no worries, Julian Bond,) Florida and Michigan might not matter, either...
According to NBC News (and its numbers guru Chuck Todd,) Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton by every numerical measure: with or without the superdelegates, in the popular vote, and (obviously) in the number of states won. He also cut deep into her democgraphics in the Potomac primaries, beating her among white men, blue collar workers, older voters, and even women, in addition to his base of black voters, the young and the upscale.
How MSNBC scores it:
On pledged delegates:
- Obama - 1,078
- Clinton - 969
- Difference - 109
With the "super delegates" included (approximate and shifting):
- Obama - 1,228
- Clinton - 1,169
In the popular vote:
- Obama - 9,925,272
- Clinton - 9,751,922
- Difference - 173,350
With Florida and Michigan subtracted:
- Obama - 9,373,334
- Clinton - 8,674,779
On states won:
- Obama - 22
- Clinton - 12
- Still unconfirmed - 1 (New Mexico)
In other words, no matter how you slice this thing, Obama is comfortably ahead. Hillary can't change the outcome by somehow convincing Howard Dean to count Michigan and/or Florida. And as Todd has said on MSNBC, she would have to win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania with more than 60% of the vote in order to catch up to Barack, given that she will probably lose two more primaries next week, in Wisconsin and Hawaii. And as James Carville has said, if she loses either Texas or Ohio, "this thing is done."
And of course, winning those states assumes that voters in those states (and in Pennsylvania) have remained in a state of suspended animation since February 5th, completely unaware of the Obama juggernaut, and oblivious to all the free media he has received with his win after win after win...
So Hillary's game plan is to go negative in her latest TV ad, and to hit Barack for not having specific plans (McCain is trying the same theme, which I hate to tell you, was OUR theme back in 2004 when I was with ACT, trying to prevent the re-election of George W. Bush. It didn't work. Voters don't care about specific plans, no matter what they say. They vote for who they like, and in that rare election (1960, 1980, and possibly 2008) who inspires them.
Barack's response? Let's just say the phrase of the day is: "green collar jobs" ...Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, democratic candidates, democratic primary, elections, Hillary Clinton, politics, presidential candidates |
