There's an interesting Zogby poll out that's also the most current survey in the field, and it gives audacity of hope to Barack Obama supporters (courtesy of usaelections.com):
Reuters/C SPAN/Zogby tracking poll
Date: 1/31-2/2
California
Added: 2/3/08
Est. MoE = 2.9% [?]
One interesting thing about this poll, aside from Barack's lead, is the large undecided vote, which we'll presume for the moment are disaffected John Edwards people plus the truly untethered. With Hillary's tougher stand on immigration, California's large Latino population, and Ted Kennedy's persistent stumping -- combined with Oprah's celebrity and California's penchant for cleaving to celebs at election time, you've got to think that if this poll is accurate, Obama could steal California from Hillary.
The McClatchy-MSNBC poll, which is one day earlier at the start and finish, has it this way:
Which will make the Hillbots much happier ... except that it has an undecided of precisely the same size -- one point larger, in fact. If you believe that both snapshots are about right (and polls are about a week behind current trends anyway, right? then doesn't that mean that Barack is eating up market share at a pretty decent clip? That, or one of these polls is way off track...
RealClearPolitics has a Super Duper Tuesday table too:
And look how tight California, Missouri, Arizona, Alabama and Connecticut's averages are! If these represent moving averages, I'd say Barack is 50/50 to win California at this stage.Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, democratic primary, elections, Hillary Clinton, politics, Super Tuesday |
