Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

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Tuesday, February 19, 2008
The math
With the upcoming races, here is the delegate math, based on New York Times delegate count. including both pledged and unpledged delegates:

Tonight's delegate cache:
Hawaii Caucus 29 delegates
Wisconsin Primary 92 delegates

Tuesday, March 4:
Ohio Primary 161 delegates
Rhode Island Primary 32 delegates
Texas Primary 228 delegates
Vermont Primary 23 delegates

Saturday, March 8:
Wyoming Caucus 18 delegates

Tuesday, March 11:
Mississippi Primary 40 delegates

Tuesday, April 22:
Pennsylvania Primary 188 delegates

Saturday, May 3:
Guam Other 9 delegates

Tuesday, May 6:
Indiana Primary 84 delegates
North Carolina Primary 134 delegates

Tuesday, May 13:
West Virginia Primary 39 delegates

Tuesday, May 20:
Kentucky Primary 60 delegates
Oregon Primary 65 delegates

Tuesday, June 3:
Montana Primary 24 delegates
South Dakota Primary 23 delegates

Saturday, June 7:
Puerto Rico Caucus 63 delegates

Total delegates at stake: 1,081

Allocating the delegate haul from tonight based on MSNBC estimates, Chuck Todd is estimating the Clinton-Obama pledged delegate totals (including Wisconsin and an estimated Hawaii) as follows:

Obama - 1,196 (1,357 with superdelegates so far)
Clinton - 1, 043 (1,267 with superdelegates so far)

So to get to the magic number of 2,025, the deficit is as follows:

Obama needs 829 pledged (668 with supers)
Hillary needs 982 pledged (758 with supers)

In other words, she needs about 7 in 10 of the remaining pledged delegates, by my math. (Chuck Todd is putting the percentage in the 60s, so we're doing different math...)

Either way, I don't think that's possible for Hillary to do...

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posted by JReid @ 11:03 PM  


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