Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
More pain in the polls
A raft of fresh, new polls hit the streets this morning, and there's nothing nice in them for Senator Clinton.

USAT/Gallup (Feb. 21-24 poll of 829 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents and 1,009 Democrats and Democrat leaners) starts us off with head-to-head match-ups that show Barack Obama as more electable than Hillary Clinton versus John McCain:

Among likely voters:

McCain - 50%
Clinton - 46
Other/Neither/No opinion - 4

McCain - 48%
Obama - 47
Other/Neither/No opinion - 5

Among registered voters:

McCain - 49%
Clinton - 47
Other/Neither/No opinion - 4

Obama - 49%
McCain - 45
Other/Neither/No opinion - 6

Among "national adults":
Clinton - 48%
McCain - 47
Other/Neither/No opinion - 5

Obama - 51%
McCain - 43%
Other/Neither/No opinion - 6

[Interestingly enough, while 46% of Republican respondents in the poll felt that Mike Huckabee should drop out of the race, 49% said he should stay put...]

Poll number two: AP-Ipsos, which also shows some ill winds blowing in the direction of Camp Clinton:
The Illinois senator leads Clinton by 23 percentage points among white men and by 17 points among liberals -- groups that were evenly divided between the two in early February. He has a similar advantage among people earning $50,000 to $100,000 annually -- whom she led earlier by 13 points.

Clinton maintains robust leads among some groups that have been cornerstones of her candidacy, including those age 65 and up, white women and people earning under $50,000 annually.

Overall, Obama has 46 percent to Clinton's 43 percent, a virtual tie. Clinton had a slight 5 point lead nationally in early February.
Although the AP/I poll shows both Dems beating John McCain, which is good news for Hillary, Barack wins by bigger margins:

Clinton - 48%
McCain - 43
Neither/Not sure - 9

Obama - 51%
McCain - 41
Neither/Not sure - 8

And the internals, particularly on white men, are more important than the national horse race, because they speak to a trend against Hillary that could carry over into a general election.

And finally, the CBS/NYTimes poll shows the following national match-ups:

McCain - 46%
Clinton - 46
Other/not sure/other - 8

Obama - 50%
McCain - 38
Other/not sure/other - 12

And, says CBS, "Obama beats McCain by 10 points among independents, while McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among that group."

All in all, not good numbers for Hillary, who if she were another candidate and not a Clinton, would already be being Huckabeed by the mainstream media.

And speaking of Clinton and the media, WaPo's Dana Milbank has a telling post about the state of Clinton press relations these days -- which are much as they have always been: nasty.

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posted by JReid @ 8:20 AM  


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