The most recent Quinnipiac poll has good news for Hillary Clinton ... sort of ...
She leads Barack Obama in the must-win (for her) states of Ohio and Pennsylvania:
Ohio: Clinton - 55% Obama - 34
PA: Clinton - 52% Obama - 36
One caveat: the poll was taken between February 4 and 12, which means it preceded and immediately followed Super Tuesday, when Hillary did well, and ended on the day of Barack's Potomac sweep. That means the poll doesn't take into account Barack's post-Potomac momentum, so I suspect those numbers are quite a bit tighter in reality (polls tend to lag popular opinion by up to a week anyway...)
Bottom line for Hillary - Barack has plenty of time before the next round of voting on February 19 (Wisconsin and Hawaii) and March 4 (Ohio and Texas) to close the gap. And she needs to win those states, not with 52 or 55 percent of the vote, but with more than 60, and the First Law of Clinton Saturation suggests that, with 99% name recognition and 15 years of voter familiarity, Hillary is not likely to add 5 to 10 points to her numbers in short order (although you should never count a Clinton out.)
Some detail from the poll:
Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton 56 - 30 percent while men back her 52 - 42 percent. Clinton leads 64 - 28 percent among white Democrats, while Obama leads 64 - 17 percent among black voters.
Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 - 34 percent with women, 49 - 39 percent with men and 58 - 31 percent among whites. Obama leads 71 - 10 percent among black Democrats.
"With Sen. Obama closing the gap, the winner in Pennsylvania probably will depend on whether blacks, young people and college graduates in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh can turn out in sufficient strength to overcome Sen. Clinton's strong lead among blue collar voters and women," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
And the match-ups with John McCain slightly favor Hillary in this poll, which her team will probably circulate widely today:
... Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican front-runner, is running neck and neck with either Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama. Results are:
Although again, these numbers seem to reflect Super Tuesday more than the post-Tsunami period, and though she didn't win as many states, Hillary's team managed the expectations game better than Team Barack did on that day, and she managed to come out relatively unscathed. Since then, she's been "scathed" plenty.
On to Texas, where there hasn't been much polling since January. But Pollster.com has an interesting graph showing the Clinton-Obama trend lines:
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