John Zogby has a bunch of numbers out tonight that are sure to be music to the ears of Obama supporters (and yes, that includes me). Zogby has Barack pulling even with Hillary in New Jersey (one of the states I think is most likely for him to steal) and pulling away in Georgia and (shocker) Missouri. If he can hold those leads, he's golden.
And speaking of golden ...
California - Democrats Democrats | 2/1-3 | 1/31-2/2 | | Obama | 46% | 45% | | Clinton | 40% | 41% | | Gravel | <1% | <1% | | Someone else | 5% | 6% | | Undecided | 9% | 9% |
That's not a typo. Barack is leading among Black voters by 4 to 1, while Hillary is leading with Hispanics 55-36%. The sample isn't tiny -- but it isn't huge, either: 967 respondents, with a 3.2% margin of error and a relatively large undecided vote for two days out. The Clinton camp has to hope that late deciders break for her, which is highly unlikely. Or the Clintons could be banking on a heavy absentee ballot showing by older, white women, like they had in Florida. We shall see.
Another note: California has an open primary, so Independents can vote -- and that definitely helps Barack ... if they show up.
Bottom line, if this poll isn't an outlier (like many people believe the low-scoring Field Poll, which showed the race as 36-34 Clinton, with a whopping 18 percent undecided, is...) it suggests tomorrow night could be a nail biter for Camp Clinton...
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, california, Democrats, elections, Hillary Clinton, politics, presidential candidates, Super Tuesday |
