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| Think at your own risk. |
| Thursday, March 13, 2008 |
| Woes, and rumors of woes |
http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifThe latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has its ups and downs for Republicans and Democrats. First, the downs:
Americans aren't happy with the state of the country or of the economy:
Forty-three percent say that they and their families are worse off, compared with 34 percent who say they’re better off; 21 percent respond that their status is the same. By contrast, strong pluralities or majorities answered that they were better off before entering the general elections in 1996, 2000 and 2004 — when, with the exception of the extremely close 2000 race, the incumbent party held onto the presidency.
Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with GOP pollster Bill McInturff, suggests that these new numbers are more good news for a Democratic Party trying to take back the White House. “The compass points due north for the party of change.”
But which party would that be?
In 1980, Americans voted to get out of the Carter doldroms by "changing" to a Hollywood actor who made them feel better about themselves. In 1992, they voted to change the generational makeup at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, in some ways to punish George H.W. Bush for going back on his tax pledge, and to signal dissatisfaction with the economy. But in 2000, given the opportunity to put a familiar name, a Bush, back into the White House, half of American voters took the bait, only to be bitching about another miserable Bush economy now. In other words, Americans say they want change, but often what they want is familiarity, and a comfort level with the person their assigning to bring them that so-called change.
So could it be that in 2008, given the opportunity to turn the page from the Bush era, or to extend it for four more years with John McCain, a man who gives off the perception of change, while promising to keep nearly every policy of the present administration going -- in perpetuity -- will Americans fall for it again?
I suspect they might. Because at the end of the day, voters -- and lets be specific here -- lower middle class white voters, who still form a majority of the electorate -- may feel more comfortable with the familiarity of McCain, than with either change agent on the Democratic side.
And so, back to the NBC/WSJ poll:
"The compass points due north for the Democrats as the party of change," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who, with Republican Bill McInturff, conducts the Journal/NBC surveys. "But for each of the three presidential hopefuls, the compass settings are much less definitive."
A couple findings in the new poll capture how conflicted Americans are. By a 13-point margin, 50% to 37%, registered voters say they would prefer a Democrat to be elected president. When asked to choose specifically between Arizona Sen. McCain and either Democrat, the results in each case are a statistical tie. (Poll results)
Illinois Sen. Obama edges Sen. McCain by 47% to 44%, while Sen. Clinton, of New York, beats the Republican by a near-identical 47% to 45%. The poll, which surveyed 1,012 registered voters March 7-10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Chief among the strengths of the Republican nominee-in-waiting is his experience with national-security issues, as a naval aviator and longtime senator. "Americans can visualize John McCain behind the desk in the Oval Office," said Mr. Hart. "The difficulty is where his policies are, and is he going to take the country where it wants to head."
Of 10 attributes measured in the poll, Sen. McCain scored highest for "being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency." Nearly two-thirds of voters agreed -- up 12 points from December, when both parties' nominating races were getting under way. His next-highest ratings, from 61%, were for strong leadership and for readiness to be commander in chief.
Voters gave Sen. McCain the lowest marks on whether he shared their positions on issues (31% said he does), for being inspirational (22%) and for being likely to produce change in Washington (20%). Yet Sen. McCain evokes positive responses among voters generally -- by 47% to 27% they say they have a favorable view of him, with the rest mostly neutral. Those with positive feelings include seven out of 10 conservative voters who otherwise say they are unhappy with Sen. McCain as the nominee. Fewer than half of Democrats have unfavorable views.
In other words, McCain wins the "red phone" contest, even though he loses with voters on the issues (and despite the fact that 52% of Republicans surveyed said they would have preferred another nominee.)
And now, the upside for Democrats:
By 56% to 30%, voters say the economy and health-care issues -- where they favor Democrats -- are more important in deciding who should be president than terrorism and social issues -- areas where Republicans are stronger. That is roughly the reverse of voters' priorities right before Mr. Bush's 2004 re-election.
At the five-year anniversary of the Iraq war, the conflict remains as unpopular as ever, despite the military progress of Mr. Bush's troop buildup of the past year -- of which Sen. McCain was the chief promoter. A majority still wants to start withdrawing troops in 2009 rather than stay indefinitely until Iraq is stable, as Sen. McCain suggests.
The toll on Republicans is reflected in voters' party identification. By 12 points, 47% to 35%, more voters say they are Democrats or lean that way; four years ago, the parties were roughly even. Republicans' slippage is mostly among those 18 to 34 years old. While strategists typically give short shrift to younger Americans because many don't vote, Mr. McInturff says their excitement this year, especially on the Democrats' side, could make 2008 "one of the first general-election cycles where they become a very important subgroup." That could hurt 71-year-old Sen. McCain.
And yet, while a generic D beats a generic R by a 50 to 37 margin, McCain remains in striking distance of either -- now heavily primary damaged -- Democrat.Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, polls, presidential candidates |
posted by JReid @ 10:34 AM   |
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