I love a good poll as much as the next political junkie. In fact, I follow them pretty asiduously, including on this blog. But it's fair to say that most of the horse race polls pitting either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton against John McCain to see who's more "electable" in the general don't matter a whit. Here are three reasons why:
1. It's April. Much could change in the U.S. between now and the election. Those events will influence the way voters feel about the eventual nominees versus one another.
2. There are two many people in the race. With no conclusion on the Democratic side, the horse race polls are polluted with passionate Clinton voters who lean to McCain because they don't like not seeing their girl on the ticket, and Obama voters who do the same on behalf of their guy. The latest polls say as much, showing something like a quarter of Obama supporters saying they'll vote for McCain if Barack doesn't get the nod, and a third of Hillary supporters saying the same thing. That, too, will change as we get into the general election, and John McCain is defined more starkly against just one Democrat. Then, those who claim they'll switch will be confronted with a whole new reality, and most of them will likely vote party line.
3. John McCain has not been defined. The media has done a woeful job of covering McCain, whom many reporters appear to worship even more than they worshipped George W. Bush after 9/11. The lack of coverage of McCain gives him the natural advantage of being defined in potential voters' minds only by his amorphous "cliche qualities," which have been drummed into the public's mind by the same mainstream media: "McCain is a maverick"; "McCain is no George W. Bush"; "McCain is a hero." With those platitudes substituted for actual probing of his actions and views, it's no surprise that he is dead even with either Democrat in the polls.
4. The Democrats aren't helping themselves. By attacking each other something like ten times more than they attack McCain, the two Democratic contenders are building up each other's negatives, and their own, and leaving McCain in the arms of the suck-ups in the Washington press corps. Of course, that will change too, once Miss Hillary accepts that this thing is over. ... I mean, once the contest has run its course... (ahem)
And the fifth reason why the horse race polls don't matter?
5. National polls don't matter nearly as much as statewide polls. The latter gauge how candidates might do in the real contest in November -- the contest for electoral college votes. That's why statewide polls like the DNC's arguably Democratic friendly internal polls matter more inside campaigns. DNC pollsters surveyed 17 swing states and found some troubling trends for Grandpa McCain, whose age and stands on issues will undoubtedly become major subjects of the fall campaign. Another set of polls that can tell a compelling story: daily tracking polls like Gallup's, which are good at identifying trends.
If you want to read some polls that matter, check out the polling out of states that are headed to the polls in the next several weeks (PA, IN, etc.) Those are the polls, right now, to watch.
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%>
Tell a friend
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dim email, sendmail
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'send a specific page or send a site url
dim url
'url = Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
url = "http://www.aspbasics.net"
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sendmail.Body = "Site recommendation from a friend!" & _
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%>
"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788
