I was talking with my mentor in radio earlier today, about the prospects for the Democrats to win back the White House in the fall (assuming HRC hasn't foreclosed any possibility of that already.) The bottom line is, the Democrats have to hold all of the John Kerry states, and add Ohio, or Florida (less likely) or two Western states (say, Colorado or Nevada and New Mexico) in order to win the Electoral College vote. What I said this morning is that I have no doubt that the Dems can win the popular vote -- Democrats are more motivated, more numerous (based on party identification) and they dominate in terms of new registrations in every state that has voted so far except for Florida. Independents, meanwhile, are siding with Dems on nearly every issue. Last but not least, John McCain is a less than inspiring candidate, whose lack of personal magnetism, combined with his lukewarm support from hard core religious and other conservatives, should mean that he brings out fewer voters overall.
That said, McCain doesn't necessarily need to generate enthusiasm in order to win, and as we discovered in 2000, he doesn't need to win the popular vote, either. All John McCain has to do is hold the states George W. Bush won in 2004, even if he does so by slim margins.
So.
Gallup today has an analysis of where the statewide races stand so far, in the red, blue, and "purple states." They find that:
Democratic front-runner Barack Obama has a four-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain among registered voters residing in states that were competitive in the 2004 election. Obama has a comfortable lead in states John Kerry won comfortably in 2004, as does McCain in states George W. Bush won easily. ...
... Hillary Clinton also leads McCain by the same 47% to 43% margin among purple-state voters. But she does not fare quite as well as Obama does in blue states, and she trails McCain by a slightly larger margin than Obama does in red states.
... Hillary Clinton also leads McCain by the same 47% to 43% margin among purple-state voters. But she does not fare quite as well as Obama does in blue states, and she trails McCain by a slightly larger margin than Obama does in red states.
Gallup includes the following as "purpole states": New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.
That's not as good news for the Dems as it sounds, because:
McCain and his supporters can take solace in that there are more red states, more voters, and thus, more electoral votes in those states. So even though he trails by four points in the most competitive states, he is down by only two points to Obama (46% to 44%), and is down by just one point to Clinton (46% to 45%), among registered voters when all states are combined.
According to 2004 election statistics, 36% of all voters in that election resided in red states, 33% lived in blue states, and 31% in purple states. So the Democratic candidate is starting out at a disadvantage, everything else being equal. Thus, in order to win the election, the Democratic candidate probably has to defeat the Republican by at least a couple of percentage points in the competitive states, assuming the vote distributions in the red and blue states stay relatively constant. The Republican can probably win by essentially breaking even in the competitive states, as Bush did in 2004. (While this analysis focuses on the popular vote, the electoral vote results should generally follow a similar pattern, in which the candidate who wins a greater share of the popular vote in the competitive states will probably also win a greater share of the electoral votes in those states.)
The final 2004 popular vote results were more polarized than the current poll data suggest is the case now. McCain is not faring as well as Bush did in 2004 in red states, where Bush defeated Kerry 59% to 40%. And Obama only matches the 13-point advantage Kerry had in blue states (56% to 43%). The two candidates essentially split the vote in the most competitive states in 2004, with Bush winning 50% and Kerry 49%.
Bottom line, red state voters are impervious to the realities on the ground. They will vote for whatever Republican is put in front of them, even if not enthusiastically. Therefore, the Dems have a slimmer margin of error than John McCain, as crazy as that sounds given the fix this country is in.
<%
dim done
done = request.form("done")
if done = "" then
done = "No"
%>
Tell a friend
<%
Else
if request.form("done") = "Yes" then
'sets variables
dim email, sendmail
email = request.form("email")
Set sendmail = Server.CreateObject("CDONTS.NewMail")
'put the webmaster address here
sendmail.From = "webmaster@aspbasics.com"
'The mail is sent to the address entered in the previous page.
sendmail.To = email
'Enter the subject of your mail here
sendmail.Subject = "Check out this website"
'send a specific page or send a site url
dim url
'url = Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
url = "http://www.aspbasics.net"
'This is the content of the message.
sendmail.Body = "Site recommendation from a friend!" & _
vbCrlf & vbCrlf & "A friend has sent you this email and thought you would should check out this site." & _
vbCrlf & url & vbCrlf
'this sets mail priority.... 0=low 1=normal 2=high
sendmail.Importance = 1
sendmail.Send 'Send the email!
response.redirect Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
'Response.write ("Sent to ") & email
End if
End if
%>
"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788
