Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

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Sunday, April 06, 2008
The upside-downside girl
See ya, Dubya! Condi Rice with (future political baby daddy?) John McCain

According to former Bush Iraq flak Dan Senor, Condi Rice is sniffing around the vice presidential short list:
ABCNews’ Mary Bruce Reports: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is actively courting the Vice Presidential nomination, according to Republican Strategist Dan Senor. “Condi Rice has been actively, actually in recent weeks, campaigning for this,” Senor said this morning on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”

According to Senor, Rice has been cozying up to the Republican elite. “There's this ritual in Washington, the Americans for Tax Reform, which is headed by Grover Norquist, he holds a weekly meeting of conservative leaders, about 100, 150 people, sort of inside, chattering, class types,” Senor explained. “They all typically get briefings from political conservative leaders. Ten days ago, they had an interesting visit. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The first time a Secretary of State has visited the Wednesday Meeting.” ...
So could Condi actually get the job? Well, let's just say she has her ups and her downs...

On the upside:
  • She's a hell of a lot younger than John McCain. But then again, who isn't?

  • She is widely respected among Republicans, and would likely be seen by your average GOPer as presidential.

  • She is widely perceived to be a conservative hawk, mostly because she hasn't bothered to hold, or at least to articulate, much in the way of a point of view, nor has she asserted herself much, either as National Security Adviser, or as Secretary of State. So she would probably pass muster with the BOMB 'EM ALL, SEPARATE THE DEAD LATER! crowd (which, coincidentally, includes John McCain...)

  • She has long Washington and foreign policy experience, which though redundant for McCain, would reinforce his run as THE WAR, WAR, WAR!!!!! PRESIDENT.

  • She is a part of the Bush administration, and thus would strengthen McCain's standing among the remaining, even if dwindling, Bush Faithful.

  • She is an integral part of Bush's Middle East strategy, including the Iraq War. And John McCain loves himself some (substitute the country ... okay, let's just say Iraq) war.

  • She is both Black and a Woman, which would theoretically allow McCain to see the Dems one Obama (or Hillary,) and raise them one double-minority, giving Independent voters who are wary of the "TooBlack Obama" of Tim Russert's obsessive nightmares, a trap door into which to dive, while still making history (and thus feeling good about themselves.) And her nomination could help McCain hold onto Black Republicans who might otherwise stray to Barack, and with white Democratic women still carrying a grudge over the whole, Hillary didn't win the nomination thing...

  • Chris Matthews, says, "yes she can!" And other members of the media would be high on the concept, too, giving McCain even more media Monicas than a guy who's the ranking member of the Congressional committee that regulates the media ... oh, McCain IS the ranking member of the congressional committee that regulates the mediia! Outstanding!!!
On the other hand, Condi also has her drawbacks...
  • She is widely perceived to have been at best, a passive, ineffectual National Security Adviser, and if he picks her, he's stuck with her "I think it was called... Bin Laden ... determined to attack ... inside the United States" video, and her failure to heed repeated warnings about a potential attack prior to 9/11 ... and stuck good.

  • She is integrally a part of the Bush administration's pre-Iraq war blunder machine, and would thus strap McCain to that bomb, too, turning his "100 years of war" into the even more ominous "100 years of improperly planned for war."

  • McCain would also inherit her other negatives, including her penchant for shopping for 'spensive shoes while people are drowning in what's left of New Orleans. And who needs that 527 ad stinking up the campaign.

  • She brings with her heavy baggage filled with incompetence, including her serial misjudgments on the supposed focal point of her pre-administration expertise: Russia. McCain would inherit that baggage, too. (Is it just me who finds it scary to think that Condi taught George W. Bush everything he knows about the world?)

  • She has been a huge disappointment as secretary of state, apparently unable to convince her man Dubya to commit to real engagement in the Israel-Palestinian peace process, for instance, and spectacularly ineffective in pushing forward Bush's supposed "freedom agenda" in the Mideast, which doesn't exactly boost McCain's foreign policy street cred.

  • She brings nothing to McCain to counter his weakest link: the economy (stupid. Sorry, but that never gets old for me...) despite her recent drop-ins with Grover Norquist.

  • The only things she has run or managed have been the National Security Council (see bullet point one) and the Department of State (see "John Bolton," and/or "Iraq occupation.")

  • She is Black and a woman, which could turn off the redneck contingent of the Republican Party down south, not to mention the anti-affirmative action intellectuals who will smell the whiff of Ferrorism in her selection. Worse, Condi has actually begun to make some statements on race (and affirmative action) that have disturbed the wingerati. In all, it probably wouldn't be enough to doom Sir John in the deep red South, where he could win if he were a rotten banana peel overridden by slimy larvae, but it will present him with a narrative he doesn't need (and racist 527 leaflets flying around Dixie that he doesn't want.) On the flip side, Condi would likely bring him little if any of the black vote -- she isn't popular outside of black Republicans, though as I said before, she could keep some of them from wandering over to Obama. And she likely wouldn't net him more than the Republican women he's already going to get, although she could be helpful in bagging some disgruntled Clintonettes.
  • Perhaps most importantly, Dr. Rice is so tied to George W. Bush personally, and to his father, that McCain would be hard-pressed to argue that he's not running for a third Bush term (or is that a fourth, if you count the dad...?) And since whoever the Democratic nominee is planning to beat McCain over the head with George W. Bush's bloody carcass every day until November 4th, it would behoove him not to make it easy for them by actually adding to his ticket, George W. Bush's third term.

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posted by JReid @ 8:39 PM  


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