Former Nixon aide Patrick Buchanan is a very smart, very engaging guy. I really enjoy him on MSNBC, especially when he starts waving the hand, turning red and going apoplectic over Barack Obama's supposed weaknesses with "hard working white folks." When he gets really exercised, "like that" becomes "Lack-at." And I really did love his book, "Where the Right Went Wrong."
That said, where did Pat go wrong on his analysis of Obama's weak demographics? It seems ... shock of all shocks ... a candidate's performance relative to candidate in his or her own party does not necessarily indicate how that candidate would perform in a general election. So the MSNBC/WSJ poll yesterday had to be murder on Pat, who has been writing and saying a lot of stuff "lack-iss":
Bush's disapproval is near 70 percent, and 80 percent of the country believes the nation is on the wrong course. Unemployment is rising. Surging gas and food prices compete for the top story not only on business pages but front pages, with home foreclosures and the housing slump. Family incomes of Middle Americans have ceased to rise, as millions of their best jobs have been outsourced overseas. Yet, national polls show McCain-Obama a close race, and the electoral map points to critical problems for Barack. He seeks, for example, to target Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. But in all three the Hispanic vote may be decisive. And Barack was beaten by Hillary two to one among Hispanics, and between these two largest of America's minorities, rivalry and tension are real and rising. Barack must hold Michigan and Pennsylvania and pick up Ohio or Virginia. Yet, his weakness among Southern and working-class whites and women is remarkable. By two to one they rejected him. After his string of primary and caucus victories in February, Barack proceeded to lose Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, then West Virginia by 41, Kentucky by 35, Puerto Rico two to one and South Dakota by 10. That last one Barack was supposed to win. The longer the campaign went on, the more reluctant Democrats seemed to be to embrace his nomination. What is Barack's problem? Well ... according to the poll, he doesn't have one. The poll results were pretty darned definitive: Obama has opened up a six-point advantage over McCain (47%-41%) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which is up three points from Obama’s lead in April. Perhaps the most fascinating numbers are in the crosstabs, and some of the numbers will surprise folks who memorized every exit poll from the Democratic primaries. Obama leads McCain among African Americans (83-7), Hispanics (62-28), women (52-33), Catholics (47-40), independents (41-36) and even blue-collar workers (47-42). Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19). Meanwhile, McCain is up among evangelicals (69-21), white men (55-35), men (49-41), whites (47-41), and white suburban women (44-38). However, Obama has a seven-point edge (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it’s white women that usually decide the race. The MSM, who all-but declared Obama's chances with white women dead after Hillary dropped out, have been focusing on the white, suburban women number. But aren't these the same "soccer/security moms" who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004? Another interesting break-out is the evangelical vote. George W. Bush won that vote 68%-30% against Al Gore, and 78% to 21% versus John Kerry in 2004, according to the Pew Research Center. If Obama has already brushed the GOP back to its 2000 numbers (the year Bush lost the popular vote by more than 500,000 votes and won the Electoral College by ONE vote, after the Supreme Court awarded Florida to him) then John McCain has a problem. Over time, I suspect Obama's "Joshua Generation" project and superior comfort level with the language of religion will only boost his number, while the zeal to turnout for McCain -- which made the difference for Bush in 2004, just isn't there.
As for Pennsylvania, which Chris Matthews and Buchanan have obsessed over all campaign season, Obama is leading McCain in the polls there. And he's leading in Colorado, and in New Mexico, and in Ohio.
Sorry, Pat.
| Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Pat Buchanan, polls, presidential candidates |
