Four more positive poll results for Barack Obama, courtesy of Quinnipiac University's polling outfit today:
An emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to leads of five to 17 percentage points over Arizona Sen. John McCain among likely voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released today.
Sen. McCain's lead among white voters in Colorado and Michigan cuts the gap to single digits, but doesn't offset Sen. Obama's strength among other groups. The Democrat also leads by eight to 21 percentage points among independent voters in each state. Overall results show: - Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters;
- Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents;
- Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents;
- Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.
Obama is losing white men by just 5 points in Colorado, and splitting whites 46 to McCain's 47 in my former state, while creaming McCain with Hispanics, 62-36.
He's winning all age groups in Michigan, including a 3-point edge with voters over 55 (he's down by 6 points with white men. Meanwhile,
Obama tops McCain 58 - 32 percent with women and 49 - 42 percent among men. White voters support Obama 51 - 39 percent. The Democrat leads 63 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 49 - 38 percent with voters over 55.
Obama gets a 59 - 22 percent favorability, to 46 - 32 percent for McCain. Meanwhile in Minnesota, there's good news for Barack, bad news for Al Franken, and Tim Pawlenty news for John McCain:
"Sen. Obama sweeps nearly every demographic group in Minnesota, including whites and blue collar workers, to lead by 17 points, the biggest lead in the four states surveyed. At the same time, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, with overwhelming support among men and a tie among women, has a 10-point overall lead over comedian Al Franken, the Democratic challenger," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"Most voters say it would not make any difference in their vote if Gov. Tim Pawlenty is McCain's running mate," Richards added. Wisconsin
Not what the McCain team wants to hear, I suspect.
Last but not least:
Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 53 - 37 percent while men back the Democrat 51 - 40 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 42 percent. He leads 61 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 47 - 41 percent among voters over 55.
Obama's favorability is 54 - 27 percent, with 48 - 30 percent for McCain.
And the main issue for all comers: the economy, stupid. It's no wonder that:
"November can't get here soon enough for Sen. Barack Obama. He has a lead everywhere, and if nothing changes between now and November he will make history," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. With those numbers? Hell yes. Now, for the very early, and very theoretical, Electoral College count:
Electoral votes:
Colorado - 9
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Wisconsin - 10
Total - 46
Give all 46 of those EVs to Obama, and he's got 221 electoral votes, without including Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina or Virginia. He would need another 49 EVs, McCain would need 96. That leaves Obama a number of combinations to win it. Give him the three previous QPac swing states that he's winning: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and Obama is at 289, enough to win it all. Add Iowa and New Mexico -- two states he will almost certainly win -- and he's over 300. It's a tantalizing possibility, but again, it's still early, and we don't know what the Bushies' "October surprise" will be yet...
To have fun with the delegate math your damn self, go to 270towin.com. Just look busy so your boss thinks you're working...
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Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, John McCain, polls, presidential candidates, swing states |
