Gallup has Obama up 47%-43% over John McCain. And Politico offers a helpful retrospective on Fourth of July polls and the candidates they favored.
Meanwhile, the National Journal has its own poll, of political insiders, which includes explanatory snippets from poltiical operatives. The best take: from one of the 30% of Democratic strategists who said "age" is one of John McCain's two biggest vulnerabilities:
"Every time McCain gets off the airplane, he hikes his pants up like a grandpa. That does not speak to voters' hopes for the future."
Amen!
One more number to watch that will no doubt prove to be much more important: the number of jobs the U.S. economy has shed in the first half of this year? 438,000:
"Over the past year the number of unemployed has increased by 1.5 million to 8.5 million and the unemployment rate has increased by 1 percentage points to 5.5%," says Steven Wood, chief economist of Insight Economics. "In the post World War II period, every time the unemployment rate has jumped by a full percentage point in the course of a year, the economy has slipped into recession."
So far this year, the economy has lost a total of 438,00 jobs, an average of 73,000 a month.
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Fourth of July, John McCain, polls, presidential candidates |
