The Wall Street Journal tries to find the bad news for Obama in its new poll with NBC with this headline:
Voter unease with Obama lingers despite his lead Poll finds background, experience are advantages for McCain
But the underlying numbers look pretty good for Barack, who leads overall, by 6 points (47%-41%), and also in enthusiasm, with suburban and urban voters, in every region except the South, including by 12 points in the swing states and by a 51%-38% margin in the Midwest, with voters of all income levels, 55%-29% with moderates, and by a wide 52%-31% margin with Hispanics (black voters goes without saying -- McCain has 3 percent...) But the biggest divide appears to be generational. From one WSJ analyst:
On age, the poll found that 55% of voters aged 18 to 34 prefer the 46-year-old Sen. Obama, while 31% favored Sen. McCain. That 24-point edge is up from a 13-point advantage for Sen. Obama in last month's survey. Sen. McCain, who turns 72 next month, would be the oldest person elected to a first term as president.
At the same time, Sen. McCain's lead has ticked up among the oldest voters. He is now favored by 51% of those aged 65 and up, versus 41% for Sen. Obama. That 10-point gap is up from seven points in June.
The gap appears to be much greater than it was four years ago. In 2004, exit polls found that while younger voters favored Democrat John Kerry and older voters favored President George W. Bush, the margins were much tighter.
Beyond the age issue, the poll also found:
• A geographic divide, with voters in urban areas preferring Sen. Obama, and those in rural areas going, albeit more narrowly, for Sen. McCain. Suburban voters, a traditional swing group, narrowly lean toward Sen. Obama. • A persistent and striking enthusiasm gap between the parties. Just 14% of McCain voters -- versus 44% of Obama voters -- were excited about their candidate. Similarly, 43% of McCain supporters -- and just 22% of Obama's -- called their man the "lesser of two evils."
• Very different concerns about each candidate. The most common concern about Sen. McCain, cited by about four in 10 voters, was that he would continue President Bush's policies. For Sen. Obama, the most common concern was that he is too inexperienced for the job. One in three worry about that.
• A continued advantage for Democrats in party identification. Forty-five percent of voters told pollsters they considered themselves Democrats, versus just 35% who identified as Republicans -- another worrisome sign for the GOP.
• In looking at vice-presidential candidates, 60% of voters think Sen. McCain needs someone who is an expert on the economy. Half of voters say Sen. Obama needs someone who is an expert on foreign affairs.
That Bush number is probably the biggest worry for McCain.
One other interesting note about the poll: when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are factored in, Obama holds, and even bumps up, his number, while McCain takes a hit:
Without the third parties: Obama - 47% McCain - 41% Undecided/neither/other - 12%
With the thirdies: Obama - 48% McCain - 35% Nader - 5% Barr - 2% Undecided/neither/other - 10%
I get the feeling that if Barr had higher name recognition, the numbers for McCain would be even worse.
All of that said, the Journal does make a point in that the gap between Obama's theoretical numbers (his advantages on issues, in regions, etc) and his actual spread remains at a good 7-8 points, and the "discomfort" factor probably explains the spread. In my opinion, part of that "discomfort factor" is race-based, and Obama will have to live with a small but significant percentage of votes that will simply be inaccessible to him because of his race. The question will be whether that cohort is big enough in key states to keep him from pulling them into his column. Because many of the swing states are out west, where Obama's advantage with Hispanics will likely outweigh the "rejectionist" white vote, he's probably in good shape. But Team Barack should keep an eye on the rejectionist numbers in states that are likely to be very close, and here I'm thinking Ohio, even Michigan, and of course, Florida.
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dim done
done = request.form("done")
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done = "No"
%>
Tell a friend
<%
Else
if request.form("done") = "Yes" then
'sets variables
dim email, sendmail
email = request.form("email")
Set sendmail = Server.CreateObject("CDONTS.NewMail")
'put the webmaster address here
sendmail.From = "webmaster@aspbasics.com"
'The mail is sent to the address entered in the previous page.
sendmail.To = email
'Enter the subject of your mail here
sendmail.Subject = "Check out this website"
'send a specific page or send a site url
dim url
'url = Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
url = "http://www.aspbasics.net"
'This is the content of the message.
sendmail.Body = "Site recommendation from a friend!" & _
vbCrlf & vbCrlf & "A friend has sent you this email and thought you would should check out this site." & _
vbCrlf & url & vbCrlf
'this sets mail priority.... 0=low 1=normal 2=high
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sendmail.Send 'Send the email!
response.redirect Request.ServerVariables("HTTP_REFERER")
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End if
%>
"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788
