On second thought, it may not be "niceness" or weakness, as some frustrated observers (myself included) have assumed as this wearying general election drags on, that may be main problem. It may be overconfidence, and a certain dismissiveness about the racial dynamic in America. Listen to what Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told members of John McCain's traveling circus yesterday:
“There’s a lot of hyperventilating about national polls,” Plouffe said, which wasn’t a surprise since both a CBS News poll and the Gallup daily tracking poll showed McCain taking the lead nationally in the presidential race. “When you look at battleground states, we feel very good about where we are.”
Plouffe argued that McCain has “jettisoned the idea” that this election is about experience with selection of first term governor Sarah Palin on the ticket. McCain is now trying to make the election about change, Plouffe said, and “that’s a debate we’re happy to have.” So why aren't you having it, man? The Obama campaign hasn't taken the race to McCain YET, and we're 56 days from D-day. Worse, they've allowed the McCain campaign to remain on offense, and to dictate the daily news message, even before the Palin pick. Now let's hear why Plouffe is so confident. Two words: ground game:
Plouffe said the election would boil down to which campaign could appeal to undecided voters in battleground states and who could bring out the highest turnout numbers. “We have a huge ability to grow turnout,” he said. “We have a more credible path to 270 [electoral votes, the number it takes to win] than McCain does.” Of course, he's right that Team Obama has a superior ground operation. The one here in Florida is something to see, even if it is run by the eternally flat and out-gunned Florida Democratic Party. But what Plouffe is discounting, apparently, is the Republican's trump card, which before the Palin selection, wasn't McCain's to play: evangelicals. They were tepid about McCain until Palin was chosen, but now, they're electrified by the chance to put a woman who speaks in tongues one heart attack away from power (watch for them to begin believing on God for a McCain heart attack if he gets elected...) That means they will get their churchmembers out on election day. Believe that. (And yes, Focus on the Family does operate here in Florida, where we've also got a marriage amendment on the ballot...)
Now, look at what Plouffe said about the impact of race on the cmapaign:
Both campaigns have attempted to take race out of the campaign, and Plouffe rejected the notion of a “Bradley effect” – voters telling pollsters they would vote for a black candidate, but changing their mind in the voting booth. “Swing voters that are up for grabs are not going to factor race into the equation,” he said. Sorry, but this sounds exactly like the stuff Plouffe said when he addressed supporters at a private event here in Miami early in the primary, when it looked as if Obama wouldn't be able to put Hillary Clinton's campaign away. Of course, at that time, Plouffe's confidence was justified. But as aggressive and skilled at political marketing as they are, the Clintons have nothing on the ruthlessness of the Karl Rove street gang masquerading as the Republican Party. For Plouffe to continue to be as nonchalant about the very real shifting dynamics in this race is, to say the least, troubling. White women are now very much in play for McCain. Evangelical voters are a lock. And the idea that "both campaigns" have pushed aside race is laughable. Hell, the entire subtext of the McCain campaign is, "look at this flower of white, Christian womanhood. Wouldn't you rather have her, and her red-blooded American family, in the White House, instead of Militant Michelle and Mr. 'community organizer,' foreign, elite, undercover Muslim 'Obama'?"
With Palin on the ticket, rural and even suburban white voters, like the ones I grew up around in Colorado, or who I've encountered in Wyoming, Utah (yeah, I'm black, but I've been there), Texas and Florida, now have a cover story for their race-based vote: "we're makin' history by putting a woman in, see?" Many will fall right through that trap door, and never have to admit they rejected Obama because of race. Obama and his team can discount race all they want to. It's there, baby. In a big way. And if he's counting on perennially underperforming black and young voters to neutralize the race factor and bring it home for him, he's in bigger trouble than he knows. (Earth to Obama: some Hispanic voters are gonna deep six you because of race, too...)
Bottom line: as much as I like and respect the Obama team members I know here in Florida, and as hard as I'm rooting for them, Obama's team is way too confident, not nearly aggressive enough, and not even close to consolidating a strong, coherent marketing message.
Back when I first graduated college and was working as a beverage industry analyst in the early 90s, I learned the following lesson about the cola wars: Coke is the de facto cola, all over the world, and the market share leader, because when Pepsi tries to market itself as the de facto cola, the Coca-Cola Company squashes them like a bug. They are aggressive at retail, pushing stores to feature Coke, not Pepsi, displays, they are aggressive advertisers, and ruthless price-cutters who win by putting their products at arms length, no matter where you are, what time of day it is, or what you're thirstry for. Coke achieved what you might call "full spectrum dominance" in the soft drink market by crowding out any possibility of message theft, and by co-opting whatever good messaging Pepsi comes up with. This despite the fact that Coke usually loses to Pepsi (and RC Cola and Sam's Club Soda) in taste tests. Go figure. The Republicans are looking like Coca-Cola in this campaign. Better marketers, more message discipline, more aggressiveness, product? Who said anything about the product?
I hate to say it, but this is looking, sounding, and feeling more and more like 2004 every day, and the Obama candidacy more and more like John Kerry's. I watched that mess unfold from my job working for a national 527 here in Florida, and I'm getting the same sinking feeling now that I had then.That's not what Democrats want to hear right now, but it's real (and the proof, Unfortunately, is in the fundraising...)
UPDATE: the Obama camp appears to be getting the message that things ain't going so well. They're now looking to the 527 cavalry to ride to the rescue...
(Cross-posted at TPM Cafe)
| Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, presidential candidates |
