The latest early vote and absentee ballot numbers are absolutely stunning, and great news for the good guys:
Democrats are ahead in terms of turnout by 205,205 voters out of the nearly 3 million votes cast. For the first time that I can recall, Republicans are below 50 percent in absentee ballot returns. Taht has never happened, in my memory. And the advantage that Dems have in early vote is nearly two to one. | Total Ballots Cast |
|
|
|
| | Thursday, October 30 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Voted Early |
|
|
|
|
|
| | Dem | % | Ind | % | Rep | % | Total | | 894049 | 53.22% | 276494 | 16.46% | 509371 | 30.32% | 1,679,914 | |
Returned Absentee Ballots |
|
|
|
| | dem | % | ind | % | rep | % | Total | | 464325 | 35.64% | 194859 | 14.95% | 643798 | 49.41% | 1,302,982 | |
Total Ballots Cast |
|
|
|
|
| | dem | % | ind | % | rep | % | Total | | 1,358,374 | 45.54% | 471,353 | 15.80% | 1,153,169 | 38.66% | 2,982,896 | |
2006 Comparative |
|
|
|
|
| |
Voted Early (2006) |
|
|
|
|
| | Dem | % | Ind | % | Rep | % | Total | | 244688 | 45.48% | 76044 | 14.14% | 217246 | 40.38% | 537,978 | |
Returned Absentee Ballots (2006) |
|
|
|
| | dem | % | ind | % | rep | % | Total | | 177049 | 30.90% | 81406 | 14.21% | 314582 | 54.90% | 573,037 | |
Total Ballots Cast (2006) |
|
|
|
|
| | dem | % | ind | % | rep | % | Total | | 421,737 | 37.96% | 157,450 | 14.17% | 531,828 | 47.87% | 1,111,015 | The electrifying Democratic turnout is being driven in large part by black voters, although it does appear that so far, younger voters are underperforming according to an Orlando Sentinel analysis:
A Sentinel analysis of the record 1.4 million ballots cast during the first nine days of early voting compared the age, race and party affiliation of those who voted early against a list of Florida's 11.2 million registered voters. It showed: *More than one in five early voters -- 22 percent -- was black, though blacks account for just over 13 percent of the electorate. Obama is the first black person running for president as a major-party nominee, and his campaign has made an effort to turn out the black vote early.
*More than half of all the early voters were 55 or older, with a bit more than 29 percent of them 65 or older and 22 percent ages 55 to 64. Combined, those in this group comprise about 40 percent of the total electorate and are considered the most reliable voters.
*Nearly 54 percent were Democrats, a group that makes up 42 percent of the electorate. And just 30 percent were Republicans, whose registrants total 36 percent of registered voters.
*Young people are turning out in disproportionately low numbers. Though major registration efforts this year boosted their totals to nearly 25 percent of the total electorate, voters younger than 35 represent only 15 percent of early voters, making them the worst-performing demographic group in the analysis. Quipped University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus, an expert in Florida voting demographics: "It could be that college students will do like they do everything else: cramming for a test, or whatever, and procrastinate."
20% of state electorate has voted
The challenge for Team Obama will be to get those younger voters out. Pronto.
Labels: 2008 election, Florida, presidentail campaigns, voters |
