Ok, I’m going all-in on the predictions. I’m more conservative on this than some, and am calling it as follows:
Obama – 349
McCain – 189
… an electoral landslide by any measure. I give Barack the following pick-ups from Bush 2004:
… and I say he holds New Hampshire for a solid Northeast.
I’m not so sure about Georgia and North Carolina, although if Obama pulls those off, he’s at 379, and if he manages to grab Missouri, he’s at an astounding 390. One of the volunteers on the campaign in Miami is married to a former Indiana congressman, so her inside take is that Indiana is very winnable. I agree. Missouri is too, I think, based on the primary turnout for Obama and Hillary, but I’m being conservative, as I said. And my prediction is based on two, I think insurmountable factors in Obama’s favor: superior voter registration numbers for the Dems, and exceptional early vote turnout, particularly among black voters.
As for the House and Senate, I’m going to guess that the Democrats will pick up 10 Senate seats (9 I’m certain of, Georgia is a maybe…):
- Alaska – Begich wins, the other guy’s a felon.
- Colorado – Udall #1 wins
- Maine – I like Susan Collins, but she loses
- North Carolina – Bye-bye, Liddy Dole! And take that “godless” ad with you!
- Minnesota – The Frankin era begins… (and he makes a return visit to “SNL”)
- New Hampshire – Bye, Sununu, I hear you’re a good guy, but this is just that kind of year…
- New Mexico – Udall number two, wins
- Oregon – Gordon Smith, another decent guy, goes down
- Virginia – Mark Warner. Need I say more?
- Georgia – I know, I know, but with black turnout? It can happen.
As for the House, I’ll go with a nice round number of 28 seats, including pick-ups in Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico and Washington State, to name a few.
All in all, should be a good night for our side.