Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]
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| Think at your own risk. |
| Thursday, January 31, 2008 |
| Hastings to Howard: 'let my people go ... to the convention' |
I interviewed a feisty Congressman Alcee Hastings on the day before the Florida primary (for a stringer story I did for American Urban Radio Networks,) and he had some sharp words for DNC chairman Howard Dean and the Rules Committee, who remain intransigent (for now) about not seating Florida's 210 delegates to the Democratic convention in August. Hastings said he would be firing off a letter to Dean after the polls closed on Tuesday, and fire he did. Here's the text of the letter (the letter is linked here in pdf form):
January 29, 2008
The Honorable Howard Dean, M.D. Chairman Democratic National Committee 430 S. Capitol St. SE Washington DC 20003
Dear Governor Dean:
I write to urge your assistance in reinstating Florida’s 210 delegates to the upcoming Democratic National Convention (DNC) this August in Denver. Before today’s polls even opened, over 400,000 Democrats had voted early or by absentee. Before the polls close this evening, it is very possible that over one million Democratic voters in Florida will have cast their votes for the candidate of their choice. Given this deep interest in this year’s election, the DNC Rules Committee must act swiftly to avoid the further disenfranchisement of Florida’s Democratic voters.
You have publicly stated that our nominee will have the ultimate decision to reinstate Florida’s delegates at the National Convention. Further, one of our two front-runners has already stated that she will work to seat Florida’s delegates in Denver while the other broke the four state pledge and has been running TV ads in Florida since the South Carolina Democratic debate. As such, the only logical, responsible, and fair thing for the DNC to do is to reinstate Florida’s delegates immediately. In doing so, the DNC would be implementing a policy which just about everyone has already agreed is going to happen in any case. More importantly for the DNC and all of us involved, it will begin the difficult task of restoring faith in the Democratic Party in Florida, something which has been lost due to DNC actions.
Indeed, you and I have differences of opinions regarding the implementation of the DNC rules and the way our party runs its presidential primary system. But what we have never disagreed on is the need to ensure that Florida voters turn out and vote for our Democratic candidates in November.
The enormous turnout in this year’s primary contests is clear indication that voters are engaged and interested in this year’s election, and we have little to doubt that turnout in November will be at record levels. But if Florida’s Democratic voters continue to believe that the Democratic Party does not care about their vote, using Florida only as a fundraising ATM and not as a resource of ideas, then they may not only stay home in November, but many may change their party affiliations and some could actively campaign against us. I hope that you will agree with me that we can not afford this scenario playing out during the general election.
Despite the efforts of many, the country will be watching to see what happens in Florida today. The DNC created a situation in which it has been widely accepted that Florida Republicans count and Florida Democrats do not. I sincerely hope that you will work with me and my Florida colleagues to rectify this by reinstating Florida’s delegates to the national convention sooner rather than later. For me, yesterday is not soon enough.
Sincerely,
Alcee L. Hastings Member of Congress
CC: The Honorable Bill Nelson and Florida Democratic House Members
Karen Thurman, Chairwoman, Democratic Party of Florida I can tell you that Congressman Kendrick Meek and other elected Democrats are actively seeking delegates in their districts, and encouraging people to fill out applications and run. They're doing that because no serious person believes that Dean, Donna Brazille and company would have the cojones to disenfranchise 1.7 million Florida Democrats who turned out in record numbers to cast their ballots on January 29th. Hastings' implied threat, that Florida Dems might just stay home in November if Dean doesn't come correct, is by no means idle. The only way for a Democrat to win Florida is the way Bill Clinton did it: with 60 percent or better turnout in the only three counties that matter for non-Republicans: Miami-Dade, Broward (especially) and Palm Beach. Even a little dampening in enthusiasm will prove fatal for the Democratic nominee.
Of course, either nominee will seat the Florida delegation, no doubt. But Howard Dean could help himself tremendously if he did it himself. And soon.Labels: 2008 election, Democrats, DNC, Florida, Howard Dean |
posted by JReid @ 2:38 PM   |
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| The Florida tally |
Turnout in the Democratic primary that supposedly doesn't count in Florida (again, don't worry, Florida's delegates will be seated in Denver in August...) was an astonishing 1,734,456 (updating the numbers from my previous post.)
The final tally for the candidates:
Hillary Clinton 863,787 (49.8%) Barack Obama 570,432 (32.9%) John Edwards 249,500 (14.4%) Joseph Biden Jr. 15,574 (0.9%) Bill Richardson 14,866 (0.9%) Christopher Dodd 5,423 (0.3%) Dennis Kucinich 9,625 (0.6%) Mike Gravel 5,249 (0.3%) Total 1,734,456
I'd like to meet those Mike Gravel voters ... or maybe not...
On the GOP side, 1,924,346 people voted, although the field was more spread out, and John McCain won with far fewer voters than Hillary did. Here's the final tally:
John McCain 693,508 (36.0%) Mitt Romney 595,830 (31.0%) Rudy Giuliani 282,503 (14.7%) Mike Huckabee 259,598 (13.5%) Ron Paul 62,146 (3.2%) Fred Thompson 22,389 (1.2%) Duncan Hunter 2,816 (0.1%) Alan Keyes 4,004 (0.2%) Tom Tancredo 1,552 (0.1%) Total 1,924,346
I think it's now official that there are more crazy people inside the Democratic Party than inside the GOP. More about 1,000 more Dems pushed the red button for Mike Gravel as GOPers did for Alan Keyes.
Labels: 2008 election, Florida primary, presidential candidates |
posted by JReid @ 11:06 AM   |
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| Wednesday, January 30, 2008 |
| Quote of the day |
Former New York City mayor Ed Koch on the political death of fellow former NYC mayor Rudolph "9/11" Giuliani:
Ed Koch, who has feuded with Giuliani for years, was delighted with Giuliani's crushing defeat in Florida. He crowed, before the final votes were even tallied, that he was certain the verdict by Florida's voters "will drive a stake through his heart. The beast is dead." Ding dong, baby.
Labels: 2008 election, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani |
posted by JReid @ 6:11 PM   |
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| Edwards gives up the ghost |
John Edwards is dropping out of the race. Barack Obama has got to be a happy man today. You've got to assume that the vast majority of Edwards' supporters will go his way, even without an explicit endorsement. (On the other hand, Camp Hillary is probably eye-balling Edwards' older, white southern supporters...)
Edwards, whom I admit to calling a "phony" from time to time (although he really does have great hair, and is very handsome in person...) will end his run in appropriate fashion for the way he ran:
The former senator will end his bid during a speech on poverty in New Orleans, where he began his White House campaign in December 2006. Labels: 2008 election, Democrats, John Edwards, presidential candidates |
posted by JReid @ 10:16 AM   |
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| Tuesday, January 29, 2008 |
| Update: Rudy to drop out! |
Ding dong, the skull is dead! Having bet it all on Florida and lost (yes, sitting out the news cycle for a month is sooooo smaht...) Rudy is dropping out of the presidential race! (Effective tomorrow, somewhere in California.) The only thing that would have made this sweeter would have been for him to soldier on to Super Duper Tuesday (as if he had enough money...) and then get humiliated with a beating in New York... and New Jersey.
But I'll take it.
Bye, Rudy!Labels: 2008 election, Republicans, Rudy, Rudy Giuliani |
posted by JReid @ 9:56 PM   |
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| McCain, Hillary win Florida, Rudy gets the booby prize |
Hillary won the Florida beauty contest (and don't fool yourself, the Democrats WILL seat the Florida electors in August. Trust me...) and gave a nifty victory speech to boot. The final tally was:
Hillary - 662,982 - 50.1% Barack - 430,641 - 32.5 Edwards - 192,073 - 14.5 All others - 102,211 - 2.9%
Total votes cast on the Democrat side 1,387,907 ... for a race that supposedly doesn't count? No dear, they WILL seat those electors. Every ... last ... one of them. By the way, 1,574,934 Republican votes have been counted on the GOP side. Huge turnout for a contest where half the delegates supposedly don't count.
With considerable help from Florida's popular guvnah, (and from his late blooming friend Sideshow Mel, plus a gaggle of South Florida's Cuban-American pols,) John McCain edged out Mitt Romney tonight. I'm not sure if that's a concession speech Rudy Giuliani is giving, but it should be. He didn't win a single county -- McCain beat him in Miami-Dade and he also lost Broward, which is nicknamed "the sixth borough" because there are so many New Yorkers living here. In fact, in Broward, this was the breakdown:
McCain - 41.1% Romney - 24.2 Rudy - 19.6
This, my friends, is called non-viability.
In Dade, the breakdown was as follows:
McCain - 48.5% Rudy - 27.7 Romney - 14.9
Those two counties, along with Palm Beach, should have been Rudy's stronghold, and he was leading in Dade when just the absentee ballots were counted (older, retired voters and early adopters who voted ahead of his Judy-gate troubles...)
If you can't win those, you can't win Florida if you're a moderate Republican on social issues, even if you're a neoconservative on Iraq (oh, wait, most Republicans are sick of that, too.)
Update: No, that wasn't a concession speech ... at least I don't think. But Rudy sure did sound like he was trying to do his best Obama, talking about how Republicans need to reach out to all ethnic groups and races, classes and walks of life. He said "races" or "ethnic groups" at least three times ... and this from a guy who refused to cross the Brooklyn bridge when he was mayor because he'd encounter too many Black people there ... and he was BORN in Brooklyn!
Anyhoo, Romney is giving his rousing "don't call it a concession" speech now. He's also doing his best Obama, saying that "we can't change America by sending the same people back to Washington to rearrange the chairs." Very Titanic-esque.
Update 2: Mike Huckabee gave another great concession speech, which ended with, "we're going on from here! If you have friends that are voting for me, tell them to come along with me, if they're not voting for me, don't let 'em out of the driveway!"Labels: Florida, Florida primary, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani |
posted by JReid @ 9:26 PM   |
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| Florida returns coming in |
I'm watching the returns on MSNBC and also tracking them on the Florida Elections Website (and the Miami-Dade Elections website, since I'm also tracking a local issue on slot machine expansion.) So far, the incredible thing is the turnout -- on both the Republican and Democratic side (despite the DNC's foolish attempt to disenfranchise what could turn out to be half a million Florida Democrats.)
So far, Hillary is leading on the Dem side:
Hillary - 236,758 - 50.8% Obama - 132, 459 - 28.4 Edwards - 80,560 - 17.3
With about 25% reporting.
Huckabee and McCain are locked in a death struggle on the other side:
Romney - 230,587 - 34.1% McCain - 226,474 - 33.5 Rudy - 97,705 - 14.4 (must drop out or risk humiliation in New York....) Huckabee - 88,237 - 13.0 (the Panhandle will come in last and help boost these stats) Paul - 21,316 - 3.2
Oh, and like 1,300 people voted for Alan Keyes. Crazy Florida bastards...
Update: John McCain is now leading in Miami-Dade County. Chalk some of that mo up to the Martinez endorsement and the bona fides it leant McCain with Cuban-Americans.Labels: 2008 election, Florida, Florida primary, presidential candidates |
posted by JReid @ 8:20 PM   |
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| From the desk of: NOW New York |
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Big Liz
Sebelius betrays women by failing to stand up for Hillary
Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius has betrayed women everywhere with her utterly outrageous decision to endorse Senator Barack Obama, rather than Hillary Clinton. By shirking her responsibility to support whatever woman candidate is running, she has shown herself to be a phony ... a 1950s house frau in a 21st century pantsuit. She should immediately turn in that pantsuit to the nearest Macy's and go to work at her REAL dream job as a topless hostess at the Naughty Kitten nightclub. Maybe some slobbering man can pay for her cute little haircuts with dollar bill tips.
How dare this woman -- she IS a woman, isn't she...? support a man, when clearly there is a woman standing for election. A woman with a HUSBAND, no less? Hell, that's more than we've got! Stop hating, Kathleen. Hillary is qualified, she's intelligent, she knows what the White House looks like from the inside, and most importantly, she once had the capability to breast feed. Withhold your support from her at your peril.
The foregoing is a satirical press release not actually sent by the National Organization of Women, New York. Please do not send any of your big, giant lady goons to beat me down... |
posted by JReid @ 4:57 PM   |
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| Bill, be nice |
Just as Chris Matthews discovered the perils of going on too salty about a female candidate (and bashing her daily, and seemingly obsessively...) Bill Clinton has apparently learned a lesson about throwing Jesse Jackson references around in reference to his wife's African-American challenger: just say no. The NYT writes: Nice Bill is back.
Meanwhile, Jesse Jackson says he wasn't offended by Big Bill's reference to him winning South Carolina, just like Barack. Hell, he's probably happy to be compared to the Democratic phenom who is taking the presidential field by storm. And Jackson had some words of wisdom for Obama in a telephone conversation the two had after South Carolina:
In his conversation with Mr. Obama on Saturday, Mr. Jackson said, “He told me what Bill had said. And I said to Barack, as a tactical matter, resist any temptation to come down to that level. There may be temptations, especially when the media keeps saying ‘Barack is black,’ and they never said ‘Dukakis is white’ or ‘Hillary is white,’’ he said, referring to Michael Dukakis, who won the Democratic nomination in 1988.
But, Mr. Jackson said, “Bill has done so much for race relations and inclusion, I would tend not to read a negative scenario into his comments.” He said his chief concern was that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton not “bloody themselves” so much that they can’t unite against the Republicans in November. Well said, Rev. Hey, he was also the guy who told us to "stay out of the Bushes..."
Labels: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, ce, Hillary Clinton, Jesse Jackson, race |
posted by JReid @ 4:50 PM   |
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| NOW for something really stupid |
I was about to write a pretty nasty tirade about NOW New York's whiney jeremiad against Ted Kennedy for his endorsement of ... someone other than Hillary Clinton ... but as fate would have it, Americablog's John Aravosis tiraded better:
ever have I read a whinier, more sophomoric press release from a national organization, or in this case, their rather important state affiliate. Apparently, anyone who supports any Democrat other than Hillary is a misogynist. So does that also mean that anyone who supports any Democrat other than Obama is a racist? Truly one of the most ridiculous, knee-jerk, stuck-in-the-1960s, and downright offensive things I've ever seen from what I thought was a respectable organization. In the immortal words of Patrick Swayze as the lead character in "Ghost," and at the risk of being accused by the NOW ladies of abandoning my responsibility as a woman not to let a man speak for me (unless he's Bill Clinton,) let me say, Ditto.
So what did the nattering nelly's of NOW have to say? Here it is:
Senator Kennedy Betrays Women by Not Standing For Hillary Clinton for President January 28, 2008
Women have just experienced the ultimate betrayal. Senator Kennedy’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton’s opponent in the Democratic presidential primary campaign has really hit women hard. Women have forgiven Kennedy, stuck up for him, stood by him, hushed the fact that he was late in his support of Title IX, the ERA, the Family Leave and Medical Act to name a few. Women have buried their anger that his support for the compromises in No Child Left Behind and the Medicare bogus drug benefit brought us the passage of these flawed bills. We have thanked him for his ardent support of many civil rights bills, BUT women are always waiting in the wings.
And now the greatest betrayal! We are repaid with his abandonment! He’s picked the new guy over us. He’s joined the list of progressive white men who can’t or won’t handle the prospect of a woman president who is Hillary Clinton (they will of course say they support a woman president, just not “this” one). “They” are Howard Dean and Jim Dean (Yup! That’s Howard’s brother) who run DFA (that’s the group and list from the Dean campaign that we women helped start and grow). They are Alternet, Progressive Democrats of America, democrats.com, Kucinich lovers and all the other groups that take women's money, say they’ll do feminist and women’s rights issues one of these days, and conveniently forget to mention women and children when they talk about poverty or human needs or America’s future or whatever.
This latest move by Kennedy, is so telling about the status of and respect for women’s rights, women’s voices, women’s equality, women’s authority and our ability – indeed, our obligation - to promote and earn and deserve and elect, unabashedly, a President that is the first woman after centuries of men who “know what’s best for us.” Blah, blah, blah. The title alone is mind numbing. You mean not supporting Hillary is a betrayal of all women? Well vote me off the island! ... This is why nobody listens to this bunch.
Word to the ladies of NOW New York: Black women are, technically, women too. And many o us -- most by my count having spent the morning talking to people at polls here in South Florida -- happen to love Barack Obama. So where does that leave us? Are we duty bound to vote for Hillary, too, just because we share her chromosomal makeup? I mean for God's sake, if Teddy Kennedy -- a man, no less -- is duty bound to support the women, how can we escape our responsibility?
Perhaps it hasn't occurred to these guys ... I mean ladies ... I mean Women with a capital W ... but ... um ... just as it's not fair to expect every Black person to support Barack, it's not fair to expect everyone who supports equal rights for women to support Hillary (or to expect every woman to do so.) People ... wait for it ... have to make up their own minds, and choose the candidate who most inspires them. In fact, in most years, inspiration isn't even an option. People choose the candidate who will keep them up the least at night worrying about their finger on the button. This year, at last, there are multiple candidates, on the Democratic side at least, who provoke inspiration. Don't hate on Teddy Kennedy if Barack does for him the same thing he does for so many Americans, including a real, live woman-type person named Caroline. Funny your press release finger wasn't trained on her...
NOW New York, thanks for the straight talk. Your statements reveal you to be creatures of the politics of yesterday. The rest of us have happily moved on.
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, elections, NOW, politics, Ted Kennedy |
posted by JReid @ 3:54 PM   |
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| Florida goes to the polls! |
It's Florida's big beauty contest day (I interviewed Rep. Alcee Hastings last night and he's what you call "38 hot" about the DNC's disenfranchisement of Florida. He's sending a letter to Howard Dean today demanding that the Florida delegates be seated.)
The Miami Herald has some info on what Floridians are thinking.
Number one issue for Sunshine State voters?
The economy - 38% and the war in Iraq - 19%
Most important quality voters want in a president?
Democrats: - An agent of change - 19% - Experience - 20%
Republicans: - Represents my values (sorry, Rudy) - 27% - Has a strong moral character - 21%
My polling place was doing a brisk business this morning. The line was already pretty long at 6:50 a.m. and it was growing when my kids and I left. Every Black person I talked to outside (interviewing folks for American Urban Radio Networks) was for Obama.
Labels: 2008 election, Florida |
posted by JReid @ 9:26 AM   |
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| What if you gave a State of the Union and nobody cared ... not even Dick Cheney? |
Could there be anything more emblematic of George W. Bush's irrelevancy than his SOTU address tonight, in which not a single thing mentioned was new, with the exception of those ridiculous rebates ... which themselves are a relic of Reaganomics. How sad that despite his supposedly triumphant moment in New York City after 9/11 (and his supposedly triumphant stint as a "war president" ... not ...) this president ultimately ends his administration the way he began it: as a marginal, tepid figure, who might as well spend the rest of his term on vacation. One of the dullest, most inconsequential speeches I've ever barely not slept through... and totally upstaged by the Kennedy endorsement of Obama earlier today.
Bush attempted to sound defiant tonight, even as the economic walls are crumbling all around the castle. He didn't offer any soaring rhetoric. How could he? There's, quite frankly, not much to soar about. Even his attempts to Baghdad John the war in Iraq fell flat tonight. No hoots and roars coming to him even from the Fox News side of the chamber. Hell, Sam Alito looked bored as hell.
In some ways, I'm actually moving past loathing of George W. Bush and straight on to pity. This is a man whose entire life was about being second best -- to his father, to Jebbie, and now, to Barack Obama, Ted Kennedy, and anyone else who cares to steal the news cycle. He's a war president without a country at war ... a man who elicits laughter in my household when he talks about appointing judges who respect the Constitution ... a man who has squandered not only his legacy, but his country's, and for nothing. Even the Wall Street titans he has propped up for all these years are going belly-up. Luckily for them, and for Dubya, there's a fat golden parachute to land with. The rest of us aren't so lucky.
On second thought, forget the pity. I'm back to loathing again.Labels: George W. Bush, worst president ever |
posted by JReid @ 12:39 AM   |
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| Monday, January 28, 2008 |
| Passing the torch |
It's rare that I completely agree with Chris Matthews, but today, I do. As Chris just said on MSNBC, today, Ted Kennedy, his son Patrick and his niece Caroline "transferred all the majesty and magic of the Kennedy legacy to this one young guy," Barack Obama. (The endorsement just took place at American University in Massachusetts.)
Think about it: all that Camelot implies: the sea change in this country's search for racial justice and healing, the search for peace amid the cold war, and the hope of enshrining a new generation in politics, all handed, wrapped in soaring rhetoric, to a Black, first generation American -- a man who literally is both Black and White, ordinary and extraordinary, and as young as JFK and RFK were when they became America's knights in shining armor. I'm sounding Chris Matthews gushy right now, but I think it's hard to argue that this was not an extraordinary quartet of speeches at American University, and in my opinion, an historic one for the country.
The endorsement won't help Barack in the general, where Kennedy is seen as a very liberal figure, but in the primary it's big, especially since Kennedy will apparently concentrate his campaigning on eating into Hillary's current advantage with Latino voters.
Also: apparently Ted Kennedy ignored pleas directly from Bill Clinton not to make this endorsement. What an exceptional rebuke.Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Democrats, news and politics, Ted Kennedy |
posted by JReid @ 1:35 PM   |
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| The sword in the stone |
President John F. Kennedy with Robert and Ted Kennedy at Hyannis Port in 1960 First came Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg's moving New York Times op-ed endorsing Barack Obama as a man who could be the president her father was for so many Americans back in the 1960s. Now, Senator Ted Kennedy, the "lion of the Senate" and a personal friend of the Clintons, will endorse Barack, too.
Right wing bloggers may snicker at Kennedy -- fixated as they are on his most tragic moment -- but for Democrats, this is about as big an endorsement as a candidate can get. For Ted Kennedy, the last surviving son on the tragic Kennedy clan and the family's patriarch, to pass to torch, not to Hillary Clinton, whose husband made the iconic photo of his handshake with JFK on June 6, 1963 (five months before Kennedy's assassination,) into the emblem of his status as the prince of generational change back in 1992, but to Obama, has got to be devastating for the Clintons.
 It's also a seminal rebuke of the manner in which Bill Clinton has been fronting his wife's campaign -- the negativity, the bully boy tactics, and the racial tinge.
The endorsement may not change anything -- white women are solidifying behind Hillary, and in states like Florida that have a huge absentee and early vote, she has already banked tens of thousands of votes. On the other hand, the double Kennedy blessing could be a huge boon to Obama as he looks to the Tsunami Tuesday primaries, which include Massachusetts and California, both states where the lore of Camelot could be a touchstone for voters.
The next step for Team Obama will be to have Teddy cut a killer national TV spot for the candidate, along with radio ads that can be strewn across Air America and Jones Radio Network talk shows. Obama has the cash to run a national TV and radio campaign, and Kennedy is the ultimate voice talent. And I would expect that with Kennedy opening the door (and likely pulling off a few stem-winder speeches for his guy as well,) the doors of the church are now open, and more prominent Dems will be falling in line behind Barack before Tuesday.
It's getting interesting again on the Dem side.
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Democrats, elections, Hillary Clinton, politics, presidential candidates, Ted Kennedy |
posted by JReid @ 10:03 AM   |
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| The second Black president? |
Author Toni Morrison, who wrote two of my favorite books ever, "Song of Solomon" and "Beloved," and who also coined the term "the first Black president" in this 1998 essay in the New Yorker, referring to Bill Clinton as "Blacker than any actual person who could ever be elected in our children's lifetime," is endorsing Barack Obama. Now, technically, if he wins, that would make Barack the first Black president ... supplanting the former ... first ... Oh, boy... Big Bill's gonna be hot now ... somebody get that brotha former brotha white man an ice pack...
Related: CBS News' Vaughn Ververs ruminates on Bill Clinton's squandering of his legacy with Black Americans. That last Jesse Jackson comment following Barack's big win in South Carolina was so far over the top, even I'm on board with the Bill bashers.
Author Toni Morrison in undated photo courtesy of Syracuse.com Bill Clinton is clearly following a strategy of maximizing the white vote for Hillary, by "Blackening up" Obama. It's shrewd politically, but potentially disastrous for the Democratic Party's electoral prospects in November, should Hillary become the nominee.
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Democrats, first Black president, presidential candidates |
posted by JReid @ 9:38 AM   |
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| Thad Cochran: 'John McCain scares me' |
Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran endorsed John McCain last week, as you may have heard. And while it likely came in part due to the two men's disagreements on ... er ... pork (something supremely important to the country's poorest state, which also receives the largest amount of taxpayer lucre,) Cochran also took a shot at the famous McCain temper, which is worth repeating:
Cochran said his choice was prompted partly by his fear of how McCain might behave in the Oval Office.
"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine," Cochran said about McCain by phone. "He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me." This morning on "Morning Joe," Pat Buchanan made the very salient point that John McCain is giving us the ultimate straight talk, promising more wars ahead ... and we would be at war with Iran shortly after he would be inaugurated president.
Labels: 2008 election, John McCain, Republicans |
posted by JReid @ 9:32 AM   |
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| Saturday, January 26, 2008 |
| The Camelot letter |
Caroline Kennedy's op-ed in the New York Times endorsing Barack Obama can be found here. A clip:
A President Like My Father By CAROLINE KENNEDY
OVER the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama.
My reasons are patriotic, political and personal, and the three are intertwined. All my life, people have told me that my father changed their lives, that they got involved in public service or politics because he asked them to. And the generation he inspired has passed that spirit on to its children. I meet young people who were born long after John F. Kennedy was president, yet who ask me how to live out his ideals.
Sometimes it takes a while to recognize that someone has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things. In those rare moments, when such a person comes along, we need to put aside our plans and reach for what we know is possible.
We have that kind of opportunity with Senator Obama. It isn’t that the other candidates are not experienced or knowledgeable. But this year, that may not be enough. We need a change in the leadership of this country — just as we did in 1960. ... And the devastating closer:
I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.
I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.
Score one for Barack.
 Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, The Kennedys |
posted by JReid @ 10:58 PM   |
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| Caroline Kennedy-Schlossberg to endorse Obama |
The endorsement will come in the N.Y. Times tomorrow, according to NBC News. Whither Ted, but this is no doubt huge for Camp Obama within the Democratic Party, where some on the left had been questioning his bona fides...
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Democrats, The Kennedys |
posted by JReid @ 8:56 PM   |
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| Florida watch |
Governor Charlie Crist adds another endorsement to John McCain's kitty. This as the latest Mason-Dixon poll shows the GOP race as follows:
Romney - 30% McCain - 26 Giuliani - 18 Huckabee - 13 Paul - 3 Undecided - 10
Note to Giuliani fans (all three of you) who news reports say are devastated by the defection by the Guvnah: At this stage, in order to win Florida, Rudy would have to get all of the undecided voters, PLUS take supporters away from either Romney or McCain. Theoretically, he could pull some soft Romney people who prefer a bald-headed flip-flopper to a curiously well-quaffed one. And he could sneak off with McCainiaks who like their neoconservatives to be all chicken hawk - no military experience. So there's hope then ... ahem ...
Update: Perhaps the only other hope Rudy has in Florida is the huge absentee ballot turnout that's expected in the state. Rudy's camp has to hope that enough early adopters locked in for him back when he was popular to put him closer to Romney and McCain.
Labels: 2008 election, Florida, John McCain, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani |
posted by JReid @ 8:40 PM   |
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| Don't call it a comeback |
The media is harping on Barack Obama's rout of Hillary Clinton among Black South Carolina voters (he got 80 percent of them.) But there are other big numbers that Hillary (and Bill) ought to worry about. First, the overall number. Obama is projected to win the state by a huge margin:
Obama - 53% Clinton - 27% Edwards - 19%
Even if those numbers don't hold exactly, Obama is looking at a huge victory.
The other troubling number for the Clintons: the 20 percent of Black voters who said they would be dissatisfied if she ultimately wins the nomination. Picture bridges burning ...
For the Obama campaign, there are minefields in these numbers, too. The Clintons, for better or for worse, were successful in framing the South Carolina contest as one mostly about race, and their strategy of pushing hard against the Black vote in order to turn out the White vote didn't help Hillary win, but it did reframe the overall contest for White voters who care about that sort of thing. This sort of comment on the MSNBC First Read site should be on the radar screen of Camp Obama:
More than 50% of the turnout was African American and ovevr 80% of African Americans voted for Obama. Lets us also remember that Jesse Jackson won South Carolina and a lot of other southern states in 1984 and 1988. Recall that Barack Obama never intended to fight for the nomination on this ground. Hell, most Black voters didn't even support him until he won the Iowa caucuses. He has fought his entire campaign on the neutral grounds of change and unity, not on the toxic soil of race. The one-two punch of the simplistic media narrative and the take no prisoners tactics of the Clinton campaign, has forced him onto exactly the playing field he did NOT want to be on. Remember Barack's announcement that he would run last February? It was remarkable in that Barack made that announcement surrounded, not by Black people, but by White people. Particularly young White people. Now, as you look at his events, they are becoming more heavily populated by Blacks. Not a bad thing -- but it does set the stage for a contest that is at least in part, a test of racial loyalty -- for boty Blacks and Whites, particularly White men, since White Democratic women are pretty much Hillary's to lose.
That, is a shame.
However, I predict that the Clintons, having made their point in South Carolina, will back off on the racial insurgency. They don't need it anymore. My opinion is that it was very deliberate, and designed to make the expected (even by them) Obama victory in South Carolina seem pyrrhic, setting the stage for them to argue that the REAL contests are the ones ahead.
Mission accomplished.
So what should the Obama campaign do now? Two words: win primaries. They will need a couple of big victories in states that don't have a 45-50% Black Democratic electorate, in order to slow the Clinton machine down.
Update: For what it's worth, Pat Buchanan agrees with me on this. I don't know if I'm comfortable with the consistent level of agreement between us over the last few years...
Update 2: The exit polls should be sobering for the Clintons. Barack won not only Black voters, but also churchgoers, younger voters, and late deciders. And the majority of those who said that Bill Clinton's rhetoric affected their vote said that they voted for Obama.
Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, elections, Hillary Clinton, politics, presidential candidates, South Carolina |
posted by JReid @ 8:23 PM   |
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| Barack wins South Carolina |
In a race eerily reminiscent in undertone, if not in intensity, to the Republican race in 2000, the South Carolina primary has ended, but this time, the actor playing the part of John McCain beat the actress playing the part of George W. Bush (and her husband Karl Rove). In other words, Obama wins.
NBC News is projecting Obama the winner "by a wide margin", with Hillary and Edwards fighting it out for second place. Of course, the media is focusing on what differences there were in the vote between Blacks and Whites. One thing Bill Clinton has been right about is that the media has fanned the race flames in this contest. But the Clintons are responsible in large part for the nasty, uncomfortably racial tone the race has taken, as are Black supporters of Obama's who have insisted on pushing his racial identity to the forefront, the better to excite Black voters, but the worse for his universal message of inclusion.
Update: According to exit polls, Barack got 81 percent of the Black vote. Hillary got 17 percent, and John Edwards got just 1 percent. Hot damn. I know the Clintons are seething. Barack got just 24 percent of the White vote, with Hillary getting 36 percent and Edwards pulling 29 percent. Barack did get 49 percent of the under 30 White vote.Labels: 2008 election, Barack Obama, elections, Hillary, politics, presidential candidates, South Carolina |
posted by JReid @ 7:10 PM   |
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| Promise keepers |
After welching on him last week, Sideshow Mel Martinez finally decides to follow through on his promised endorsement of Baghdad John McCain, who is now statistically tied with ... no, Chris, not Rudy ... with Willard Romney in the latest Florida polling.
And where does that leave Sir Rudy of 9/11, the man whose financiers (such as they are) and supporters (such as they are) reportedly were reportedly responsible for turning Melly Mel into a "tower of Jell-o" last week? He's somewhere down in third place in the must-win Sunshine State, tied with Mike Huckabee (who will probably beat him on Tuesday...)
Labels: 2008 election, Baghdad John, elections, Florida, John McCain, Mitt Romney, politics, presidential candidates, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani |
posted by JReid @ 3:43 PM   |
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| Wednesday, January 23, 2008 |
| You can't win if you don't play |
 Rudy Giuliani is finding out the hard way that there really is no new way to run a campaign. You just don't skip all of the early contests, get locked out of the news cycle for a month, and then ride in on a white horse in Florida, and expect to blow by the competition after that.
Rudy has several core problems that the mainstream media has missed:
1. His last big news cycle was a disaster. The stories about police shuttling his mistress around before she was his wife weren't helpful for a candidate running on little else besides 9/11. Without some larger narrative, Rudy has always run the risk of getting sucked into the sinkhole of his pretty miserable personal story, once the 9/11 zombie juice wore off and the New York-based press started covering him again.
2. There was no next big news cycle. Just as Judygate was dying down, the news became all about the cat fights between Barack and Hillary, and all about the big wins for ... pick the Republican ... Huckabee! Romney! McCain! Nowhere in this media narrative could one find a guy named Rudolph Giuliani. And in politics, voters forget you faster than they forgive you.
3. While nobody was thinking about Rudy, he was busy burning through his scant campaign stash in the Sunshine State. Rudy spent his money in Florida like a drunken tourist on a cruise ship, and now that he's nearly out of cash, and paying his senior staffers with hugs (does Rudy actually hug, or does he just grimace with that skull face of his and pat repeatedly...?) there's no way he can out-gun his rivals where he has telegraphed to the entire world that he is going to make his stand: Florida. Florida is a pricey media market, and without money, he's becoming more uncompetitive by the day. And Super Tuesday is going to cost the candidates a hell of a lot more than Florida.
4. The media is wrong about Rudy's appeal in Florida. Rudy was popular for a minute down here with about a third of Republican voters, not because they're New Yorkers and they love him, but because they're NOT New Yorkers and he's a Republican who's tough on the so-called "war on terror," and Florida Republicans are conservative GWOT hawks. Truth be told, the New Yorkers who have retired down here are largely to be found in places like Broward County (dubbed the "sixth borough" of Manhattan), Palm Beach and Boca Raton -- and earth to media, they're mostly FDR Democrats, who hate Rudy's guts. In fact, I don't know a single New Yorker down here who likes Rudy. And don't get me started on former N.Y. firefighters... Rudy's support in Florida came not from nostalgic New Yorkers, but from hawkish southerners and anti-Castro Cubans. Now, both are walking away from him in favor of John McCain.
5. Rudy Giuliani is a terrible candidate. He is a one-noter, and with the Republicans mind-numbing the rest of us into believing that the surge has worked, combined with an economy headed to recession, Iraq, and the global war on terror, have suddenly gone off the front pages. Once the election shifted squarely toward "the economy, stupid," Rudy suddenly didn't seem so important. After all, he's known for his one day of glory (like the balding 40 year old who's still prattling on about that big, winning touchdown he made in high school to anyone who'll listen...) not for his economic prowess. And no matter what Chris Matthews tells you, Rudy's just not that likable, nor is he that electable without a major terrorism scare factor (something which also makes no sense, since he didn't stop 9/11, or predict 9/11, he merely survived 9/11 ... )
But will he survive past Tuesday?
As they say in Brooklyn, it don't look good...
New polls have Rudy trailing John McCain in New York (gasp! They can't stand him there, either!), New Jersey (where he's down 29-26) and California (where he's also given up a lead). And a new Florida poll shows Sir Rudy of 9/11 falling into ... wait for it ... third place:
Rudy Giuliani has hit the skids in a Florida freefall that could shatter his presidential campaign and leave a | | | |