New DKos poll: Birthers for Rubio … and Kendrick who???
A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll has some troubling news about the support for Marco Rubio, which seems to be coming from an assortment of teabaggers and birthers. The same poll shows that normal Republicans prefer Charlie Crist, and unfortunately for the Dems, Kendrick Meek is still a total unknown. The poll shows an incredible, 43-point swing in GOP support, from Crist to Rubio, since January:
Charlie Crist (R) 47 (57)
Marco Rubio (R) 37 (4)
And where is all that fresh Rubio support coming from? Birthers, for one:
Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America, or not? (Asked only of GOP primary voters)
Yes 35
No 29
Not Sure 36Was Obama born in US?
Yes No Not sure
Crist 73 31 33
Rubio 16 54 45
In other words, as the Kos folks put it, “the crazier the Republican, the more they support Rubio.” And because only about a third of Republicans are sane, Rubio is catching up quick. Should Charlie survive the Rubio apostasy and get to the general, he’ll be looking at a very different electorate, in which 57 percent of GOP voters (general election sample) get the fact that Obama was born in Hawaii — ergo, in the United States. Another bad sign for Miss Charlie: Rubio’s name ID is still only at around 50 percent — which means he has a lot of room to grow.
The Kos/R2000 folks then tried testing Crist, Rubio and Meek in various matchups, and with Crist floating as a Republican, and independent, and a Democrat. Here’s how that shook out:
All likely voters
Crist (R) 50
Meek (D) 33Rubio (R) 30
Meek (D) 38
The Meek number actually looks pretty good against Rubio, except that as the researchers point out, 40 percent of Republicans are undecided in that matchup, and they would likely break almost totally for Rubio in this scenario. The crosstabs on the poll make the point — with 68 percent of respondents having no opinion of Rep. Meek, 66 percent ditto for Alex Sink, and 57 percent having no clue about Rubio. Meanwhile, only 9 percent of respondents had no opinion on Charlie Crist, with 59 percent either viewing him favorably, or “very favorably” (Crist’s “very unfavorable” number among all respondents was just 13 percent, versus 22 percent for Barack Obama, which goes to show you the irony of his current plight. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio’s unfavorables are relatively high, and rough equal to his favorables, given how relatively unknown he is…) All three also-rans in the race have a ways to go to raise their name ID, but Rubio has the benefit of an angry, hyperactive, and highly motivated movement behind him, as crazy as that movement may be. In primaries, passion sometimes matters more than either substance or rationality about what would work better in a general election.
The Kos folks conclude from this poll that Charlie Crist should abandon the GOP and pull a Lieberman/Specter — running as either an Independent or a Democrat. That would allow him to bank his money and skip the primary, saving all his money and ammo for Rubio in the more favorable general election climate. If you buy the poll, if Crist were to run as an Independent, 17 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Republicans would walk with him. Sounds good, but I’m not so sure I’d buy that bridge if I were Charlie. First of all, if Crist were to leave the Republican Party (and there’s absolutely no sign he would ever do that) he would further energize the jihadis, who would claim his scalp along with that of Dede Scozzafava and whatever Obama “czars” they think they’ve felled, and it would further energize Rubio, who would then inherit the entire Republican Party apparatus. Florida has no serious third party for Crist to run on, and no such party would have the infrastructure to make him electable. And politics being what they are, there is ZERO chance that even Charlie’s best current friends would jump ship from the party and donate to a third party candidate, when the then Republican would be younger, prettier, and more important for the party’s nightmarish demographic future: browner. If Crist were to walk away from this race, he would cede the future to Marco Rubio. And that would be one hell of a development. And I’m not sure the Dems would want Charlie either. One man-hug does not a Democrat make. And if you take him, don’t you have to take Jim Greer and LeMeow, too? Ugh! Last, but not least, there’s the fact that even with all these shock polls, Crist still holds the advantage in this Senate race. He has both the fundraising advantage and a serious name ID advantage, plus solid favorables among Republicans, including in this poll. In the end, there may be fewer birthers and teabaggers in Florida than people think. Of course, anything can happen, but until I see a poll with Rubio ahead, I’m not putting any money down on Marco just yet. Bay area columnist Mark Caputo puts it a bit less delicately:
Florida’s U.S. Senate contest is a media race (i.e., he with the most money and name ID wins. And that’s likely Crist). This isn’t a chicken-dinner teabag retail politics race like a puny House contest in New York. Also, expect Crist camp to get real mean, real quick with Rubio. So just because Rubio raises money doesn’t mean he’ll continue poll climbing.
Wow. “Chicken dinner teabag retail politics.” That’s gonna chafe some teabagger’s shorts! BTW, there’s another red flag for Kendrick Meek in this poll. Matched against Charlie Crist, while 65 percent of African-Americans would pick him, and just 5 percent said Crist, a whopping 30 percent remain undecided. In fact, across most questions, Black voters turn out to be the most undecided of any demographic group. It could be that they’re just not focusing on the race right now, but given the fact that Meek is running in part as a “post Obama” candidate, it could be meaningful if these kinds of numbers hold over time (though this is very, very early, and they probably won’t.) Still, with Crist having a pretty good reputation with black voters (think that Obama hug hurts Charlie? Not in a general election, not with black voters it doesn’t…) and having won about 20 percent of black votes in his gubernatorial run, Crist, if he gets the nomination, will have a stronger than usual shot at getting a decent (meaning north of 10 percent) share of black votes, for a Republican. Oh, the ironies of this race just don’t stop. (Oh, and is this a problem? Especially as it was linked on a progressive web group…? Hm…)
Finally, the poll also found McCollum and Sink still tied at about a third of the vote each, with the rest undecided, and that most people, across the demographic board, support a healthcare bill including a public option.
Related: will the teabaggers kill each other off before they get the chance to make Rubio they’re new Sarah Palin?
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