Gallup: Democrats regain midterm advantage

July 20, 2010 · Posted in Elections, Politics, Polls 

A new Gallup tracking poll, taken in the wake of finreg reform, shows that the Republican strategy of siding with Wall Street (and against the unemployed,) is beginning to take a toll on their midterm prospects. Democrats now hold a six-point lead over Republicans, 49 percent to 43 percent in the “generic ballot” preference.

As with anything, there is a “however…”

Per Gallup:

Whether the Democrats’ edge is sustainable remains to be seen. Republicans held a four-point or better lead over Democrats in three Gallup weekly averages thus far this year, but in each case, the gap narrowed or collapsed to a tie the following week.

And then there’s that darned “enthusiasm gap,” which is the one place where the tea party movement’s energy really is significant:

Simultaneous with increased support for Democratic congressional candidates, Gallup polling last week found Republican voters expressing significantly more enthusiasm about voting in the 2010 midterms. The 51% of Republicans saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall is up from 40% the week prior, and is the highest since early April — shortly after passage of healthcare reform. Democratic enthusiasm is unchanged, at 28%.

Democrats will have to close that gap (which is actually smaller in other polls,) if they are going to succeed in November.

Perhaps the biggest news, is that according to Gallup, the Republicans are starting to turn off much-coveted Independents, who have swung ten points toward the Democrats over the last three tracking polls:

What will be interesting will be whether the GOP’s united stand against extending unemployment relief to millions of Americans will drive that gap down even further, or even turn Independents into net Democratic leaners.

Read the full Gallup poll and analysis here.

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