Keeping in mind that it’s Rasmussen (which means assume a built-in sampling bias for the Republican) … the latest issuance from the robot puts Marco Rubio in the lead in the Senate race, in part as a result of Kendrick Meek moving up into the 20s, and increasingly splitting the Democratic vote with Charlie Crist. The robot calls the race so far, this way (August 25 poll, 750 respondents, +/-4 MOE):
Marco Rubio – 40%
Charlie Crist – 30
Kendrick Meek – 21
Someone else – 4
Undecided – 5
And from the roborelease:
In the last survey before the primary, it was Rubio at 38%, Crist at 33% and Meek 21%.
That poll was done August 11, before Meek won the primary, and yet the robot shows him getting zero bump from his primary win. Hm … More robot:
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Rubio supporters say they are certain of how they will vote and that they won’t change their mind before Election Day. Just 48% of Meek’s voters say the same, while 45% of Crist supporters are that certain. This suggests that the race could follow the typical pattern of three-way races with either Meek or Crist slipping out of contention and watching their support drift to the other.
Meek supporters who might switch their vote are overwhelmingly considering Crist as their option. Among Crist supporters, most would consider changing to Meek. However, more than a third say they might switch to Rubio. This is not surprising given that 37% of current Crist supporters disapprove of the way President Obama is doing his job.
Overall, Rubio gets 73% of the Republican vote, and Crist draws 19% support from his old party. Meek earns 41% support in his own party, while Crist picks up 36% of the Democratic vote. Among voters not affiliated with either party, Crist has a nine-point edge over Rubio
The robot gives Crist a 52/46 approval rating, and President Obama an under water approval of 46/55.
The robot is in line with the latest Public Policy Poll on the Florida Senate race (PPP was the winner of this year’s accuracy sweepstakes for the Florida primary. The pollster explains how they did so darned well here. Short answer: non-traditional year, non-traditional sample …) PPP also shows Rubio getting 40 percent, versus Crist at 32% and Meek at 17%, but that survey was done on primary day. It will be interesting to see the next PPP poll, and where the race stands now that Meek is the Democratic nominee.