SaintPetersblog: Bet the house? (or, is the Florida Senate race over?)

Is this the chart that ends the discussion in the Florida race for U.S. Senate? Peter Schorsch writes:

Just ten days ago, the likelihood of Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist winning Florida’s US Senate race was about even money according to Nate Silver’s brilliant statistical forecast of the chances each candidate wins based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.

But that was ten days ago, before a series of polls showed Rubio opening up a double-digit lead over Crist, while Kendrick Meek, still a distant third, captures enough support to keep Crist from fully challenging Rubio. …

Read the rest at SaintPetersblog and then come back and chat …

Ok, welcome back.

So whether or not you’re a believer in polls, one thing should be clear by now: unless one of the candidates who is not Marco Rubio makes a decisive move, or Democratic voters stop being wishy-washy and just pick one of the alternatives en masse already, meaning major opinion leaders begin to move the base in a decisive direction, or unless the IRS or the feds bring Rubio down (his voters don’t care that he defaulted on his mortgage with running buddy David Rivera, or that he lived on their donations when he was speaker, so the fuzz would have to do it at this point since Democrats, in their brilliance, are not attacking Rubio, but rather are spending all their time nipping at Charlie, or getting Major League punked by Team Crist on simple, Democrat 101 union stuff) … we’re looking at Senator Rubio come January.

Also from SPB, news that the Democratic Party chairwoman, Karen Thurman, and Meek supporter Nan Rich are among those trying to make just such an opinion leading move, writing a letter to fellow Democrats imploring them not to abandon the Miami congressman’s campaign.

On a brighter note, Nate Silver has upped Alex Sink’s chances of winning the governorship to 2 in 3. That’ll have to do for good news today, Florida Democrats!

Meanwhile, hoping to put the nail in Crist’s coffin, the Republican Party of Florida released part of its “forensic audit” — and it just happens to be the part that’s most potentially damaging to Crist, who it turns out was the only Republican besides Jim Greer and Delmar Johnson, to travel on the party’s dime (and isn’t that news to Mr. Rubio…)

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10 Responses to SaintPetersblog: Bet the house? (or, is the Florida Senate race over?)

  1. This race is over. With less than 50 days to go before election day, Democrats have yet to make a decision between Crist and Meek. Given the environment, I don’t believe they’ll coalesce around either candidate before November 2nd. Frankly, neither candidate has given them a good reason to do so.

    GOP voter intensity and solidarity behind Rubio is certain to make him the next U.S Senator. Truly the perfect storm for Republicans.

  2. JReid says:

    I wish I could say you were wrong, Phil, but you’re not. Ring one up for your side. Bottom line is that better-run campaigns win. Period.

  3. Adam Tebrugge says:

    No, the bottom line is that fake Democrats like Peter Schorsch have done everything possible to sabotage Kendrick Meek. But it is not going to work and I look forward to Senator Meek being sworn in next year.

  4. Adam Tebrugge says:

    I apologize for calling Peter a fake Democrat. I am tired of everyone spinning Kendrick Meek negatively. I still believe that the tortoise and hare strategy will prevail.

    • jreid says:

      Glad you pulled back on that. I was just going to say something, bc Peter is a good guy, but you got there first. I think a lot of the criticisms of the Meek campaign are frankly valid. They didn’t run a good campaign until Jeff Greene came along, and now, it seems that they’re on track to pull Crist down just enough to elect Marco Rubio, but not enough to win. That’s not just Peter’s or my opinion, that’s the thinking of Steve Schale, who ran Barack Obama’s campaign in Florida.

      That said, if Meek is your candidate, by all means support him. At this point, I’m just glad any Democrats are planning to vote.

  5. Adam Tebrugge says:

    That is not what Steve Schale is saying, this is what he is saying:

    “Now you ask, can Kendrick Meek win?

    Go back to the original Election Day turnout scenario, with Crist winning NPA voters with 50% and Meek/Rubio split the rest. They each get 80% of their party vote, because Democrats come home understanding that Meek is the best chance. What happens then? Meek wins 40-39-21. Sure he can win. “

    • jreid says:

      That’s a lot of assumptions. You’re assuming D and R turnout is roughly equal, which evidence suggests will not be the case. You’re also assuming Meek actually gets 80 percent of the Dem vote, when right now, he’s getting just over 50 percent. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but right now, Schale is saying, as I am, that all the metrics favor Rubio winning, with Meek and Crist essentially canceling each other out. And the Meek people aren’t running in a way that pulls Rubio back down under 40 percent, per your scenario. They’re running in a way that pulls Crist’s numbers down close to Meek’s, which is a waste of time because it essentially leaves Rubio at 40 percent, more than he needs to win. Tell me: what gets Rubio back down under 40 when he’s not even being attacked by the Democrat in the race? Anything can happen, man, but I personally have written this race off. Everybody vote however you want. Just vote.

  6. Adam Tebrugge says:

    And it is the fact that you and Peter have written this race off that bothers me so much, as that is nothing but a self fulfilling prophecy. I very much enjoy this blog except for the disrespect and cynicism towards Kendrick. I predict a month from now you will be singing a different tune.

  7. JReid says:

    Adam,
    Cynicism and disrespect are two very different things. I’ll cop to the former (about most politicians) but not the latter. I don’t think you can find examples of me disrespecting Rep. Meek. I am cynical about his chances. And as always, I submit that I could always be wrong, and am happy to be convinced.

  8. JReid says:

    …Disrespect is calling Rick Scott the smoke monster. And I definitely concede that I have no respect for that guy.

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