Is this the chart that ends the discussion in the Florida race for U.S. Senate? Peter Schorsch writes:
Just ten days ago, the likelihood of Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist winning Florida’s US Senate race was about even money according to Nate Silver’s brilliant statistical forecast of the chances each candidate wins based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment.
But that was ten days ago, before a series of polls showed Rubio opening up a double-digit lead over Crist, while Kendrick Meek, still a distant third, captures enough support to keep Crist from fully challenging Rubio. …
Read the rest at SaintPetersblog and then come back and chat …
Ok, welcome back.
So whether or not you’re a believer in polls, one thing should be clear by now: unless one of the candidates who is not Marco Rubio makes a decisive move, or Democratic voters stop being wishy-washy and just pick one of the alternatives en masse already, meaning major opinion leaders begin to move the base in a decisive direction, or unless the IRS or the feds bring Rubio down (his voters don’t care that he defaulted on his mortgage with running buddy David Rivera, or that he lived on their donations when he was speaker, so the fuzz would have to do it at this point since Democrats, in their brilliance, are not attacking Rubio, but rather are spending all their time nipping at Charlie, or getting Major League punked by Team Crist on simple, Democrat 101 union stuff) … we’re looking at Senator Rubio come January.
Also from SPB, news that the Democratic Party chairwoman, Karen Thurman, and Meek supporter Nan Rich are among those trying to make just such an opinion leading move, writing a letter to fellow Democrats imploring them not to abandon the Miami congressman’s campaign.
On a brighter note, Nate Silver has upped Alex Sink’s chances of winning the governorship to 2 in 3. That’ll have to do for good news today, Florida Democrats!
Meanwhile, hoping to put the nail in Crist’s coffin, the Republican Party of Florida released part of its “forensic audit” — and it just happens to be the part that’s most potentially damaging to Crist, who it turns out was the only Republican besides Jim Greer and Delmar Johnson, to travel on the party’s dime (and isn’t that news to Mr. Rubio…)