Quinnipiac strikes again! Has Sink down vs Scott, 49-43

Florida gubernatorial candidates: Rick Scott, Alex Sink

Remember when, the day before the August primary, Quinnipiac U came out with a poll that was the opposite of a Public Policy Poll, and the Quinnipiac poll showed Bill McCollum leading Rick Scott by four points? And then there was this hinky Mason-Dixon poll that also favored the attorney general? Remember how good that made Bill McCollum feel, just before he lost? Welcome back, Quinnipiac …

The latest poll from the Connecticut pollster, which is really testing the usefulness of the likely voter model at this point, shows Sink losing to Rick Scott, drawing 43 percent to his 49. Their explanation: the same as the explanation back on August 23: television (and President Obama) …

Although Scott holds a 6-point lead in the horse race, the candidates have almost identical favorability ratings from Florida likely voters: 39 – 39 percent for Sink and 41 – 40 percent for Scott.

Florida likely voters disapprove 56 – 40 percent of the job President Obama is doing. Democrats approve 83 – 15 percent, while disapproval is 92 – 6 percent among Republicans and 56 – 38 percent among independent voters.

“Rick Scott’s millions in TV advertising may annoy voters, but it won him the Republican nomination and is pushing him to a 6-point general election lead,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

And if that isn’t incoherent enough for you…

Among likely voters, 89 percent said they had seen Scott’s TV ads and 54 percent of that group call the ads annoying, while 40 percent say they are informative. But 43 percent of likely voters say Scott’s campaign advertising is “the right amount” while 38 percent call it “excessive,” and 11 percent say “not enough.”

Almost as many likely voters, 87 percent, have seen Sink’s commercials. This group splits 47 – 46 percent on whether the ads are informative or annoying. More than half, 51 percent, say the Sink ad spending is “about right,” while 17 percent call it “excessive” and 21 percent say it’s “not enough.”

The poll was taken between September 23 and September 28, so it’s a few days old. And most recent polls have had Sink either leading Scott or down within the margin of error. And I’m sure the Meek folks would like it pointed out that Quinnipiac has their candidate down quite a bit more than any other poll. It could be an outlier, or maybe everyone else is wrong? Who knows…

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