IMHO, the key takeaway from the Post on Politics write-up of the latest Zogby poll, which the Crist campaign is forwarding around because it puts Marco Rubio below 40 percent (at 39.6) and Crist within 6.3 points of him (at 33.3, with Meek at 18.1), is this:
Kevin Wagner, an assistant professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, said the fact that Rubio has not reached 40 percent of voter support will probably not make a difference on Election Day.
“In a three-person race, (Rubio) doesn’t really need to get to even 50 percent. He just needs to get more than the other guy,” Wagner said. “For him, as long as the opposition continues to be split between Crist and Meek, that number is fine.”
Although he believes Rubio is likely to win, Wagner said there may be something voters should consider when interpreting poll results.
“The only thing to keep an eye out is how honest are Democrats being with pollsters. Crist’s numbers might be better than some of the polls,” he said.
It’s something I’ve been thinking about too…
Namely, are people going to do in the voting booth what they say they’re going to do when representing themselves as Democrats to a pollster? Are they going to do what their heart tells them, or make a split second decision in the voting booth to go for the win?
Wagner points out that there’s probably not 10 points of give in the poll numbers, which means Rubio probably wins no matter what. But if you’re a Democrat and you think Kendrick Meek is going down, what do you do? Vote for him to register your support as a Democrat, regardless of the outcome — or roll the dice with Charlie in hopes of pulling an upset on Marco?
Tick tock. What do you do?