The Zogby 6, and lyin’ to the pollsters?

IMHO, the key takeaway from the Post on Politics write-up of the latest Zogby poll, which the Crist campaign is forwarding around because it puts Marco Rubio below 40 percent (at 39.6) and Crist within 6.3 points of him (at 33.3, with Meek at 18.1), is this:

Kevin Wagner, an assistant professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, said the fact that Rubio has not reached 40 percent of voter support will probably not make a difference on Election Day.

“In a three-person race, (Rubio) doesn’t really need to get to even 50 percent. He just needs to get more than the other guy,” Wagner said. “For him, as long as the opposition continues to be split between Crist and Meek, that number is fine.”

Although he believes Rubio is likely to win, Wagner said there may be something voters should consider when interpreting poll results.

“The only thing to keep an eye out is how honest are Democrats being with pollsters. Crist’s numbers might be better than some of the polls,” he said.

It’s something I’ve been thinking about too…

Namely, are people going to do in the voting booth what they say they’re going to do when representing themselves as Democrats to a pollster? Are they going to do what their heart tells them, or make a split second decision in the voting booth to go for the win?

Wagner points out that there’s probably not 10 points of give in the poll numbers, which means Rubio probably wins no matter what. But if you’re a Democrat and you think Kendrick Meek is going down, what do you do? Vote for him to register your support as a Democrat, regardless of the outcome — or roll the dice with Charlie in hopes of pulling an upset on Marco?

Tick tock. What do you do?


This entry was posted in Charlie Crist, Elections, Florida, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, People, Politics, Polls and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to The Zogby 6, and lyin’ to the pollsters?

  1. Sean Foreman says:

    what do you do, Democrats, what do you do?

  2. I dunno. I have yet to vote.

  3. Flo says:

    I’m certainly in the boat of those waiting to decide whether or not to go for Charlie. If it’s Anybody but Rubio, then I will make that decision on Thursday or Friday. More polls like this one will “help.”

  4. jreid says:

    I think a lot of people are in your camp, especially if the Dem undecided is as high as some polls say it is.

  5. been there, done that says:

    I voted absentee last week. I spent a good half hour staring at that blank spot before I gathered up all my courage and filled it in for Crist. I’m truly sorry Kendrick, but I can not wake up Nov. 3rd and have that whackjob running around Washington, waving his sword and claiming he speaks for me.

  6. G says:

    Nate Silver is giving Rubio a 91.5% chance of winning the election. Here is my thinking…Meek will lose, that I believe. But Crist won’t win, can’t win especially because there are people (like me )who aren’t convinced he’ll caucus with the Democrats. I don’t want to be duped, so I’ll vote for the guy who’s been straight up about his political identity even if the vote is considered by many to be “wasted”.

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