Gulp … Get your TRR Election 2010 predictions here

A Sestak surprise on Election night?

Okay, here we go… enjoy (or hate) and we’ll see if I’m right at poll closing time. Short version: I think it might not be as big a tsunami as Republicans are hoping for. The idea that Republicans are going to pick up 70 or more House seats just strikes me as too giddy by half. And the Senate will stay in Democratic hands (by the way, to all my rightie friends, and an alarming number of liberals — the term is “Democratic” … not “Democrat.” Enjoy!

U.S. Senate – pick-ups and holds, lightning round:

  • Arkansas: Bye-bye, Blanche (easy R pick-up)
  • California: Barbara Boxer keeps her seat, in part because Jerry Brown wins pretty easily (D hold)
  • Connecticut: Blumenthal tosses McMahon into turnbuckle (D hold)
  • Delaware: Coons wins, O’Donnell becomes next Fox News superstar, Palin, suddenly feeling a bit older and less fly by comparison, begins hating on her immediately (D hold)
  • West Virginia: Manchin becomes the new Ben Nelson/Mary Landrieu, base hates his guts, White House gives in to his every tantrum (D hold)
  • Indiana: Coats wins the seat vacated by Evan Bayh, who immediately begins contemplating primarying the president in 2012, buoyed by PUMAs and a cool new Republican friend with a strange wig, named Rarl Kove… (R pick-up)
  • Louisiana:  I guess they like guys who use hookers in the Big Easy (R hold)
  • New Hampshire: Ayotte wins (R hold)
  • Ohio: Rob Portman wins (R hold)
  • Missouri: Roy Blunt wins (R hold)
  • Wisconsin: I’m guessing Feingold loses, but I’ll never for the life of me understand why (R pick-up)
  • Kentucky: I like Jack Conway, I think he’s a great candidate, great looking, great future, but I’m guessing he fails this time due to the Aqua Buddha backlash. The Senate gets much more interesting, and Mitch McConnell gets a leadership challenge by Paul and other forces close to Jim DeMint. (R hold)

Senate nail biters:

  • Illinois: Giannoulias by a hair over Mark Kirk, and thankfully it’s not  Blago’s hair… (D hold) Kirk screams ACORN! and demands a recount
  • Alaska: I’m with Smerconish. This one goes to a recount without anybody screaming ACORN! … but in the end, I’m going with Murkowski … though I’m not feeling too confident about it and could see McAdams squeaking through (R hold)
  • Nevada: I’m with Ralston. Turnout operation means Reid wins it, but barely (D hold) … Angle screams ACORN! and demands a recount
  • Colorado: Hickenlooper wins the governorship, and his vote plus anti-Tancredo indies help carry Bennett over the line by a nose (D hold)
  • Washington: Patty Murray hangs on, sneakers slightly scuffed but still in tact (D hold)
  • Pennsylvania: this one is my way out on a limb pick for the night’s election surprise. Pennsylvania has long been the GOP’s white whale, but like Joe Scarborough, I’ve never believed the hype. This is a union state. It’s an elderly state. Pat Toomey is for outsourcing and he’s for privatizing Social Security. I think turnout oppo by the very strong union ground troops in that state can still squeak Sestak through. The PA state party in PA is  good, they’re pushing hard in Philly to take advantage of their registration advantage and get black voters out, and there’s already early evidence of unusually heavy voting in suburban Lehigh County and other urban areas where Dems are strong. (D hold, which in a way is also a pick-up, given that it has been both a Dem and a Republican seat — both times with Arlen Specter…)

House prediction:

GOP picks up 46-47 seats, which if Dems get all 7 R pick-ups, including Joseph Cao’s seat in Louisiana, means the House majority will be a 1 vote affair in either direction. Operation: Gridlock.

Florida statewide and Congressional

  • Alex Sink ekes out a victory for governor (alternate ending: Rick Scott cries “ACORN fraud” and sues, demanding a recount. The Florida Supreme Court kicks it up to John Roberts and friends, who along with his coven, after consulting with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, awards the race to Scott. And the streets go wild!)
  • Republicans sweep the cabinet seats, Pam Bondi’s facetime on Fox News triples, triggering a hissy fit by Sarah Palin, who responds by getting her agent to arrange for her to succeed her daughter on “Dancing with the Stars” in a desperate battle to both out-flank Bondi and beat Christine O’Donnell to the punch.
  • Amendment 4 fails (which means the developers win … suckers…)
  • Amendments 5 and 6 pass, causing mass panic in Tallahassee
  • Amendment 8 (class size rebuke) fails. John Thrasher dies a lonely, smoking man in a windowless room after being defeated by anti-SB6 voters (and a TV lady)
  • Amendment 2 passes (you deserve it, veterans!)
  • Amendment 1 passes too, eliminating public financing from campaigns, and causing Jeff Greene’s interest in sunshine state politics to be renewed.
  • The balanced budget/no taxes non-binding referendum passes overwhelmingly, causing a brief panic in the Orlando are as the tea party movement’s collective orgasmic reaction rips the space-time continuum, resulting in a series of sonic booms. (More on the amendments here.)
  • Joe Garcia wins D25 (and David Rivera moves back to the Bronx to resume his secret espionage … I mean “consulting”… career)
  • Ron Klein hangs on in D22 (Allen West screams ACORN! and threatens armed revolution with the help of his biker friends…)

And for the big finish:

FLSen: Marco Rubio wins with his designated 45 percent of the vote and becomes the front-runner to be Mitt Romney’s running mate. Half of Dems blame Kendrick Meek, half blame Charlie Crist. If I’m wrong about the governor’s race and Rick Scott wins, he appoints Jeb Bush to fill the seat when Marco scampers off to Utah for de-Palinization training. If Sink is the governor, she appoints Charlie Crist to the Senate seat, causing Jeb’s head to literally explode. George LeMieux checks into alcohol rehab after Senator Crist refuses to return his repeated, increasingly desperate phone calls.

Alternate ending: and this is, to be sure,very much an outside possibility (though apparently, Meghan McCain buys it, along with a bunch of other really strange predictions…) but what the hell. In this scenario, which I’d say has about a 10 percent chance of coming true: the Panhandle re-reviews the Amex records and decides they can’t pull the level for Marco. Undecideds also break against him, and Kendrick Meek’s support collapses to just the black vote plus a handful of die-hard liberal Dems. So the finish winds up as Rubio 43, Meek 12, Snitker 2, Crist 43, in which case, it comes down to a few hundred votes … and we’ve got ourselves a recount! Mm… recount …

I’ll be on MSNBC on and off between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. to talk election results, so if I’m wrong more than I’m right on these, feel free to throw things at the teevee.

This entry was posted in Elections, Florida, Politics and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Gulp … Get your TRR Election 2010 predictions here

  1. Here were my predictions, written on 10/27/2010 and emailed to attendees of a political discussion lunch in Dania that afternoon:In Florida, I think that Rick Scott will win the governor's race because slogans like "let's get to work," talk about "jobs" and disparaging of Obama are thing right now, and Sink hasn't done a single thing to call attention to herself from the usually uninvolved voter. Of course, Rubio will slide right into the Senate. It is possible that Pam Bondi can win Attorney General simply due to Republican voter turnout, but Gelber can win if some Republicans and no-party voters vote based on understanding the race and Gelber's qualifications. I'm inclined to say that Gelber will win simply because it's unimaginable that he would lose against an empty bottle of peroxide like Bondi, but the results of this election are only an issue of turnout, and there will be many more Republicans than Democrats voting based on party affiliation, so more bubbles for bubblicious Bondi will be filled in. I say the same for CFO and Ag Commissioner- the Republican candidates have received major newspaper endorsements and they'll likely win the election as well.As for the constitutional amendments, only Amendment 2 will win, which I am voting against. I don't know if I should predict county ordinances, as I called this state-wide and national predictions, but I'd say that One will lose, Two and Three and will win, Four can win based on voters reading the text without prior knowledge of Ritter's effort behind it- yet many voters will have heard of that backstory and vote against it, so I don't know- too tricky to predict. Probably it will lose because most of those voting on it will be anti-Ritter. Five will win the 'yes' votes.Nationally, I think that Republicans will take 52-53 seats in the House and 7-8 seats in the Senate. I think that Sharon Angle will win in Nevada, but Russ Feingold will win in Wisconsin (I'm probably wrong about that, but even a tea-partier has got to be a total idiot to vote for his Republican rival given that it's Feingold whose upheld their values better than any Republican). Illinois may lose it's Democratic seat unless Obama's last-minute effort can get the unreliable voters to show up, but both candidates are so problematic that it's too difficult to predict. Ken Buck is predicted to win in Colorado, but I find that incredible, so I'd say that Bennet pulls it out in the end. Both Boxer and Brown will win in California. I think that one race that is nearly impossible to predict is the Senate race in Pennsylvania. Toomey is favored to win, but I'm not so sure of that, as I feel about Colorado. I think that there are more older white voters who will in the end vote for the more centrist Democrat than for such right-wing Republicans in states with lots of potential Democratic voters and where the Democratic candidate has run an effective campaign, but we'll see….Alaska is too weird to predict, but I don't think it's impossible for Murkowsky to pull off a write-in win. The voters there don't vote for the most qualified candidate or the one who's run the best state-wide campaign (as Florida does). They vote just to send a message that their votes are not about administrating government, solving problems or addressing issues, but only about making a personal statement that one candidate better represents the personal selfishness of the voter more than another candidate does. The Democratic candidate could win as well, but I don't see that as likely as Murkowsky actually winning. If Joe Miller does win, however, well, perhaps we'll see a couple of interesting speeches on the floor of the Senate on CSPAN.I predict that Rand Paul will win in Kentucky, but Raecy will lose in West Virginia. Rand Paul has run a less conventional race than Conway, to say the least, but a conventional Democratic campaign is the last thing that anyone needs, which is something somebody should have told Alex Sink while shaking her by the shoulders, as if she'd listen or care (she wouldn't).Anyway, those are a few mentionables. The severe loss of Democratic governors will be even more severe for the nation as a whole, but always remember, my friends, it's not just the idiot voters, the right-wing national wave or special interest money that is to blame. It is the strategies- or lack thereof- of the Democratic Party to reach the high-hanging fruit that the Republicans have specialized in: those who are eligible to vote but who are not politically astute, involved in the issues and regularly vote. All leadership of the Florida Democratic Party should be fired and replaced, and the Broward DEC might as well be contracted out to some service outlet in the Philippines.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>