Read this if you want to understand Florida elections

Steve Schale has written a must-read post for anyone who wants to understand the ins and outs of Florida’s many media markets, and the real reason Mitt Romney is probably unstoppable in the Sunshine State… A clip:

First thing, when looking at the GOP primary electorate, not surprisingly, Tampa is king.  Roughly 26 percent of the GOP vote in the 2008 Presidential preference primary was from the Tampa media market.  Interestingly (at least to this Democrat), the largest GOP county in the market is Pinellas, home to just over 6% of the likely statewide GOP primary vote, which makes that one county bigger than the entire Pensacola media market.  It also means that if the primary turnout is similar to 2008, more GOPers will vote in Pinellas than in the Iowa caucuses.

Read the whole thing here.

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2 Responses to Read this if you want to understand Florida elections

  1. I didn’t see a link above, but here it is through the magic of Google:

    http://www.stevenschale.com/blog/2012/1/4/factoids-about-the-florida-gop-presidential-primary-math.html

    Florida is an interesting state, politics-wise. I’m a 5th generation native Floridian, and I still find it fascinating.

    To understand our chaotic politics, I think it’s helpful to keep in mind that sizable portions of the state were colonized in roughly equal numbers by Midwesterners and Northeasterners, so a significant number of Florida voters will swing the way Ohio and New York swing.

    Then you’ve got the Cuban exile vote, which is dwindling in influence but still powerful. This explains why supposedly free people can’t visit an island 90 miles away because of human rights issues, and yet we can still visit Saudi Arabia, which mandates that women scuttle around under drop-cloths and denies them the vote. (It’s bullshit, if you ask me.)

    And finally, you’ve got rural Florida, which is very much a part of Dixie. People who just visit the theme parks and the beaches don’t get that, but it’s true. That portion of the state swings like Alabama or Georgia.

    Put it all together, and it’s a cauldron of confusion. I worked my ass off as an Obama campaign volunteer in 2008 (and will again in 2012), but I really didn’t know if we’d carry Florida. I was surprised and pleased we did. This year? Who knows?

  2. Andrew says:

    Don’t see the link

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