Read this: Steve Schale explains Central Florida (with bonus polling geekery)


The ethnic mix in Central Florida is changing, and not in the way you might think.

A clip:

First, since 1992, some 2.7 million voters have cast a ballot for President in these three counties, and a mere 6700 votes separate them. However, it is important to know that the Democrats only carried the region once, in 2008, by over 100,000 votes. The other four times, the GOP won.

Secondly, the metro Orlando area has grown from 7.5% of the statewide vote in 1992 to 9.1% of the statewide vote in 2008. Furthermore, its share of the statewide vote has grown by more than 1/2 a percentage point every election cycle, regardless of turnout changes or other statewide factors. If these factors continue, and given the growth in the community, they likely will continue, the metroplex alone will be more than 10% of the statewide vote by 2020, and in 2016, it could very well have more voters than Dade County.

Next, and here is where it is very important: the growth in the statewide vote share is driven almost entirely by the Democratic side of the equation. Here’s why:

read the whole thing here.

BTW we’ll be delving into this stuff more with Steve on theGrio, and also looking at four oer states in-depth, and how their demographics may be their destiny, so stay tuned…

Meanwhile, a new PPP poll shows that Magical Marco wouldn’t help Mitt Romney even if he were to accept a spot on the ticket.

And from Politico Playbook:

–CHASER, from a top Dem. source: “Assuming that Obama wins all the states that have been won by every Democrat for the last 20 years, including both Gore and Kerry (242 electoral votes) and Romney wins all the states that McCain won in 2008 (180 electoral votes), that leaves 10 states: CO, FL, IA, IN, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, VA (116 electoral votes). With those ten states, there are 1,024 possible combinations (2^10 = 1,024). Out of these 1,024 scenarios, Obama wins 939 of them (91.7%) and Romney wins 85 of them (8.3%). All 85 scenarios require Mitt Romney to win Florida, a state in which Obama leads according to all the latest polls, including +7 points in the latest Quinnipiac poll and +3 points in the latest Rasmussen poll.”

And get your disparate horse race presidential polls here. And take careful note of the three polls that have Romney ahead of the president. Nothing more to add.

This entry was posted in 2012, Florida, Florida to D.C., Mitt Romney, Politics and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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