A source I highly respect within the Obama orbit told me tonight that the veep pick is down to two candidates: one you know, and one you ... know, but didn't think had a shot. According to this source, it's down to Joe Biden and (gulp) ... Hillary Clinton. I think a Clinton pick would be, problematic?... but it would chump the national press corps and be a hell of a media coup.
The Obama camp remains mum. I await my especial text message...
Barack has been declared the winner of all three primaries tonight (Maryland, D.C. and Virginia.) NBC is projecting he'll pick up 41 delegates to Hillary's 21 in Virginia alone. He should be ahead in pledged delegates by about 105. We await the Chuck Todd math...
McCain has won D.C. (did I just hear Keith Olbermann say that only 4,000 people voted in the GOP primary in Washington? Damn...) And his margin in Virginia has broadened a bit, to 49-42.
Update: the numbers are ...
Virginia (99% reporting): Obama - 64% Clinton - 35
Maryland (37% reporting): Obama - 59% Clinton - 37
The Post says neither Democrat has benefited yet from the departure of John Edwards. And a separate story says blue collar, white voters in both parties are still thoroughly undecided. (Could this be the new swing demographic, akin to the soccer moms and security moms of the past?)
... Three-quarters of voters who prioritize a solid resume said they back Clinton; 70 percent of those seeking a change-oriented candidate said they support Obama.
While Clinton has the edge on the issues voters say are most important to them, and enjoys a wide lead on the question of who is a stronger leader, Obama now holds a seven-percentage-point advantage as the candidate who would do the most to bring needed change to Washington.
And Clinton's once-sizable lead as the Democrat with the best shot at winning the White House has shrunk significantly; in the new poll, 47 percent said she is the most electable, while 42 percent said Obama has the better chance. In hypothetical general-election matchups, both Democrats run neck and neck with McCain, and both lead Romney by double digits.
McCain outperforms Romney in the general-election tests because he picks up significantly more support among independents and political moderates. These groups have been crucial to the senator in early-state caucuses and primaries, and his biggest gains in this poll came among them.
Among GOP voters who are politically moderate and liberal, McCain has a whopping 51-point advantage over Romney in the new poll, while conservatives divide 37 percent for McCain, 29 percent for Romney and 19 percent for Huckabee. Moreover, most of McCain's improvement since mid-January is among moderates and liberals; he is up 28 percentage points in this group, while he and Romney have both climbed 12 points among conservatives.
McCain has taken control of the GOP race by picking up mainline Republican supporters as well. Nearly half of self-identified Republicans now support him, up nearly fourfold from December. He appears to have benefited from the decisions by former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) to quit the race. Both Giuliani, who has endorsed McCain, and Thompson appealed to many of the voters McCain now counts in his camp.
Two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents saw McCain as the party's strongest general-election candidate, and about three in five described him as the strongest leader. He also now has a double-digit advantage over Romney on the question of who best represents the core values of the party. On this measure, he is up 14 points from three weeks ago.
While moderates and liberals have coalesced around McCain as the GOP standard-bearer (56 percent said he best reflects party values), conservatives are less than fully convinced. Among those who describe themselves as "very conservative," 34 percent said Romney best embodies GOP values, and 25 percent said McCain.
McCain also leads on all five issue areas tested in the poll, with overwhelming advantages on national security issues (69 percent call him tops on Iraq; 67 percent on terrorism). He has double-digit advantages over Romney on the economy and immigration, and leads both Romney and Huckabee on social issues. About four in 10 Romney supporters said McCain is better on Iraq and terrorism.
For all his advantages, however, McCain does not enjoy the kind of enthusiastic support that Clinton and Obama have among their voters. Thirty-eight percent of his backers said they strongly support him. And among those Republicans who are most closely following the GOP race, he and Romney are running essentially even.
One more piece of data from the poll: it's shaping up to be a Clinton-type election ("it's the economy, stupid,") with 39 percent of voters saying the economy/jobs is the most important issue, followed by the war in Iraq at 19 percent (terrorism & national security has fallen to just 5 percent, with healthcare just ahead of it at 8 percent. ... sorry, John McCain... and illegal immigration is at just 4 percent ... sorry everybody who hates John McCain...)
The economy dominance may not be enough for Hillary to close the deal over Barack, who has tons of money ($30 million raised in January alone) to pour into the Super Tuesday states, and he's already spending money in the states that immediately follow, but it's an advantage nonetheless, because it plays to the strengths of the Clintons... emphasis on the "s"...
In a race eerily reminiscent in undertone, if not in intensity, to the Republican race in 2000, the South Carolina primary has ended, but this time, the actor playing the part of John McCain beat the actress playing the part of George W. Bush (and her husband Karl Rove). In other words, Obama wins.
NBC News is projecting Obama the winner "by a wide margin", with Hillary and Edwards fighting it out for second place. Of course, the media is focusing on what differences there were in the vote between Blacks and Whites. One thing Bill Clinton has been right about is that the media has fanned the race flames in this contest. But the Clintons are responsible in large part for the nasty, uncomfortably racial tone the race has taken, as are Black supporters of Obama's who have insisted on pushing his racial identity to the forefront, the better to excite Black voters, but the worse for his universal message of inclusion.
Update: According to exit polls, Barack got 81 percent of the Black vote. Hillary got 17 percent, and John Edwards got just 1 percent. Hot damn. I know the Clintons are seething. Barack got just 24 percent of the White vote, with Hillary getting 36 percent and Edwards pulling 29 percent. Barack did get 49 percent of the under 30 White vote.
Camp Clinton managed to rake in $22 million for the Democratic primary battle and another $5 million for the general election. Obama, the Illinois senator, raised $19 million for the primary, plus a bit over $1 million for the later contest.
Clinton's $22 million primary haul marked her best fundraising quarter yet.
"Wow. It's like they're always holding the trump card - they are good, and that's why they pulled out the stops this quarter," said Baruch College political scientist Doug Muzzio of the Clinton money machine.
Clinton's cranking ATM helped narrow the gap with Obama, giving her about $73 million to fight for the nomination to his $75 million.
When general election numbers are added in, the pair are neck and neck in buck-raking, at about $80 million each since January. Clinton started off with a $10 million advantage, funneling leftover campaign cash from her successful Senate bid into her presidential account. Observers say the money is important and the timing of the announcement helps Clinton because she can trumpet momentum while Obama has flatlined - at the polls and on the fundraising circuit.
An Iowa poll (from Newsweek) takes over the Sunday shows, showing that Barack Obama has more legs than previously thought in Iowa. (Not everyone is buying it, BTW)... But a new series of ARG polls shows that Hillary still has the mojo.
Quinnipiac is out with three new swing state polls that offer still more good news for "your girl," Hillary Clinton. She's leading the front-runner among the GOP Geriatric Drill Team, Rudolph "The Inbreeder" Giuliani in three key states:
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has inched ahead of her top Republican foe, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in Florida and Pennsylvania, and ties Giuliani in Ohio, her best showing so far in the three states as many voters re-evaluate their previous negative impression of her, according to Quinnipiac University's Swing State Poll, three simultaneous surveys of voters in states that have been pivotal in presidential elections since 1964.
Sen. Clinton has increased her substantial Democratic primary lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to 25 points in Ohio, 16 points in Pennsylvania and 30 points in Florida, the first big state to hold a primary, scheduled for January 29, 2008, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Giuliani is treading water in the Republican primary, holding leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain or former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson of seven points in Florida, 18 points in Ohio and 13 points in Pennsylvania.
Head to head matchups show:
Florida - Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 44 percent, flipping a 46 - 44 percent Giuliani lead July 23; Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to a 44 - 42 percent Clinton lead July 12; Pennsylvania - Clinton edges Giuliani 45 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 45 percent tie June 27.
Another important factor for Hillary is that her negatives are declining, particularly among independent voters, as many are apparently taking a second look at her, proving again that as I've said frequently on this blog, Hil has won every single one of the debates, and come out of the snipe fights with Barack as the heavyweight, because she's proved her toughness and foreign policy credentials, even when taking positions unpopular with the viewing or attending audience on debate night. It sounds middling, But Hil raising her favorables to 50 percent in this poll is significant for her.
On the GOP side, Q-pac finds that:
"Mayor Giuliani's lead remains solid among Republicans. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's surge in the polls has stalled, perhaps because he has yet to announce. Meanwhile, Arizona Sen. John McCain, whose numbers have been going down in most recent polls, is showing new signs of life in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains largely unknown."
And that despite all the cash Romney is spending on ads in key states, including here in Florida.
The poll isn't all good news for the front running Dem:
On the eve of the first debate for the Democratic candidates before homosexual rights activists, the poll shows backing from gay rights groups has no effect on most voters. But among the roughly 40 percent who say it might have an impact on their decision, support of a gay rights group, depending on the state, turns off from two to almost four times as many voters as it attracts. On a net basis it makes more independents less likely to vote for such a candidate.
Endorsements from business groups and abortion rights groups also make voters less likely than more likely to back a candidate. The backing of labor groups is a big plus for candidates.
In other words, Thompson, at least pre-announcement, is a bit of a slow barge. Giuliani I think has peaked. Let's see if he can restart his cousin-marrying, wife dumping, fascistic, illegal immigrant haven, switch-hitting, flip flopish, sadistic engine. Ahem...
Much to the chagrin of people like John Edwards (and Newt Gingrich, from the sound of his increasingly histrionic tone) there really are only three people in the race for president: Hillary Clinton, who now holds a commanding 22 point lead over her nearest Democratic contender for the nomination, according the the latest USAT/Gallup poll; the aforementioned nearest competitor, Barack Obama, and Rudy Giuliani, the nightmare candidate from the left-right, who would have us mow down every Arab and Muslim from here to Timbuktu were he to ever darken the door of the White House.
The latest news on the triad:
Hillary and Barack enter a Cold War phase -- I'd guess Hillary was pissed when he screwed around with her inevitability by running.
Still, many are predicting that eventually, they'll have to unite under one banner, given his hugh fundraising and continued popularity -- oddly formed plans to bomb the bejeezus out of Pakistan, notwithstanding...
Rudy predicts as much, too, even as the smart observers predict that he would make an absolutely awful president, and a dangerous one too, given that he fuels his neoconservatism with ignorant bluster and constant threats of terrorism and war. Not what the thinking American voter is looking for, but unfortunately, there still are some cowardly Americans out there who cleave to Rudy's brand of scare 'em from the rafters phony conservatism.
Meanwhile, out there in the hinterlands, John Edwards has gone from sniping at his betters for fighting each other, to sniping at Bill Clinton -- not so smart, J.E., I mean you do want to win the Democratic nomination, right...?
Dennis Kucinich has gone straight up Socialist -- still whinging for "not-for-profit" healthcare -- read Medicare for all, and a "Department of Peace." What is this guy smoking, anyway? Survey says: his camp thinks he's winning this thing...
I'd go on, but as I said at the start, there really are only three people in this thing. Four if you count the current iteration of Mitt Romney (or more to the point, Mitt Romney's money...) or the ghost of Fred Thompson...
Evaluating the Democratic debate tonight, overall, I think Hillary Clinton was the best on stage tonight, scoring with her answer on the response to a terror attack, and being straightforward and succinct regarding the war.
Barack did quite well, too, though I don't think he did nearly as well as Chris Matthews thinks he did on the foreign policy questions.
It strikes me that were it not for his position on cutting off funding and ending U.S. involvement in the Iraq war this year, Bill Richardson, because of his views on guns and national security overall, could almost run as a moderate Republican, which makes him all the more attractive as a vice presidential candidate. One big miss for Richardson tonight: saying that he hesitated on Alberto Gonzales because he's Hispanic. That won't play in Peoria.
Dodd was a non-entity. Except for the one good line on speaking economically, Biden was, too.
I was disappointed in Edwards, who didn't really raise his game from the 2004 race.
Kucinich had his crazy guy routine stolen by Mike Gravel, who is truly out there. As I said in the previous thread, Kucinich should thank Gravel for making him look fairly normal tonight. Either that or he should hate him for stealing his lines...
There were no serious discussions on racial issues, nothing much for other minority groups to seize on (gays won't like Dodd's answer on civil unions), and not much fire overall. The debate was genial and mostly headline free. I'm looking for the Miami machine to start cranking on Richardson's Cuba answer, and I suspect the Iraq portion of the debate will make the most headlines.
Overall, if I had to guess, I'd say this debate will move the needle up slightly for Hillary and Obama, might make some GOPers take a look at Richardson (the NRA thing stands out) and also will make him the primo vice presidential candidate down the stretch.
So far, Obama is winning the post-debate online poll over at MSNBC, and Hillary is getting the highest negatives. I think that's just built in for her, because I don't think an honest reading of the debate supports that Barack won it, or that Hillary came off as less than credible. I really like Barack, but off all the eight standing up there tonight, Hillary was the one I could picture actually taking office as president.
So far, Edwards and Obama are neck and neck in the Kos Kids' poll, but commenters are lauding Mr. Gravel ... no, seriously they are ... which tends to take away from the lucidity of the poll.
Next week, it's the Republicans' turn. That one won't be as nicey-nicey.
Pre-game show: For the Dem debate on MSNBC tonight, each of the 8 candidates has a slightly different mission.
For Hillary ... it's sound presidential
Barack ... live up to the charisma hype (and sound mature enough to be president)
Edwards ... get back the charisma hype
Richardson ... tuck in that neck...
All others ... say something memorable so as not to be blanked out of tomorrow's news cycle
7:00 - Okay, now to the substance. Brian Williams went straight to the war questions, starting with Barack and Hillary.
Barack reiterated that he is proud to have opposed the war from the get-go.
Hillary says as forthrightly as I've heard her that if she knew in 2002 what she knows today she would not have cast her Iraq vote the way she did.
Kucinich says you can't be against the war and continue to fund it.
Richardson says not only would he not vote to continue funding the war in Iraq were he in Congress, but that if he were president, he would push to withdraw all U.S. forces by the end of this calendar year, and use that leverage to push the Iraqis to come to a political settlement.
Chris Dodd talked about his legislation with Russ Feingold that would set a firm deadline to end the war.
Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska, who played a role in cutting off funds for the Vietnam war back in the day, got a shot in and called what the Congress is doing "embarassing." He said Congress should pass a law making it "a felony" for the president to remain in Iraq. Gravel, in very animated fashion for an old dude, laid out a tactic he said would force the president's hand: let the Senate Republicans fillibuster and call for a daily cloture vote at high noon to make clear who is keeping us in the war.
Next round, Obama is asked a question by a citizen who has a 19-year-old loved one deployed to Iraq. Obama is asked, what would he consider to be a "mission complete" status in Iraq. Obama so far isn't answering the question, but he did get his "we are one signature away from ending this war" line. He talked about needing 16 votes to override the veto. Short answer: Obama didn't answer the question.
Clinton's turn: Barack is right -- we have to put together the political support within the GOP to join with Dems to bring an end to the war. Easier said than done, and she adds that Bush seems determined not to change course despite the fact that we are losing ground. She ends by saying we need Republican support to finish the job.
Next round: "elephants in the room." This should be good!
Obama first -- "you promised a new kind of politics, so what about questionable ties to a Chicago donor tied to a kickback scheme." Obama: we have thousands of donors, this one engaged in bad behavior and I've denounced it.
Edwards -- "what about those $400 haircuts, paid for out of campaign funds?" -- Paying for the cuts out of campaign funds was a mistake. I'm privileged, yes, but that's not what I come from (cue the "son of a mill worker" shtick.) Actually, I'm being facetious, but Edwards handled it well, telling a good story, and ending that he's running to give others the same chance he's had. He's asked about repping hedge funds, and deftly parried it into a rundown of the lack of healthcare coverage.
In her response, Hillary bigs up the entrepreneurial economy and says that's what makes the country great. She also added a nice kicker that she's proud to represent the New York capital markets, and what we need to do is get back to a Democratic president who can undo the damage done by this president and the prior Republican congress.
Bill Richardson just got called on the carpet for being last in line to call for Alberto Gonzales' resignation. He admitted that he hesitated because Gonzales is Hispanic. Not a good move on the larger stage, hermano. But at least he was being honest.
Chris Dodd (I still can't figure out why this guy is running...) was asked about taking money from big money men. Honestly, he just said it and I've already forgotten what point he made...
Kucinich is doing his anti-war spiel now. He got in a pop culture reference by noting that this is not American Idol. I predict Kucinich will move up in the Moveon poll, but he still needs a pressed suit and a new life goal -- president really isn't on the table.
Joe Biden just got off a good one, giving a one word answer to Brian Williams' question about whether he can control his verbosity: "yes." Williams didn't seem to really believe he wasn't going to say anything else. Clearly, those stints on the Daily Show have helped.
Gravel is on a tear, saying some of the people on stage scare him. This guy is replacing Dennis Kucinich as the crazy uncle on the dais. So who scares you, Senator Gravel? He says the "top tier ones," and he says Biden "has a certain arrogance" and wants to tell the Iraqis what to do. He's now saying "we need to get out." "The entire deaths of Vietnam died in vain, and they're dying in vain this second. You know what's worse than a soldier dying in vain? More soldiers dying in vain..."
Hillary on her unfavorables, and the question of why Republicans are so looking forward to running against her. Hillary says you'd have to ask them. She says she takes it as a perverse form of flattery -- if they weren't worried, they wouldn't be so vitriolic. Hil reminded the audience that she tried for universal healthcare back in the day, and now the country is ready for change. This exchange will make the clips. Good job, Hil.
Next stop: abortion. Williams points out that most Americans polled approved of the SUPCO ruling on partial birth abortion. The question to Edwards: is there a disconnect between the candidates (all of whom are pro-life except Kucinich) and the public. Edwards says no disconnect. The question is whether women's health decisions will be made by women, or by a "bunch of men on the Supreme Court." He says the abortion issue is "extraordinarily difficult" for many people and "we have to show respect for people who have different views on this issue."
Obama, same issue: reiterates the difficulty of the decision, and says "I trust women to make these decisions with their doctors and their family and their clergy." Broader issue: can we move past the things upon which we disagree toward areas of agreement, such as reducing teen pregnancies. Nice parry.
Biden: would you have a Roe litmus test? Biden says he wouldn' t, but he would make sure his nominees shared his values re a right to privacy. Danger zone: Biden said he led the fight to dump Robert Bork. That will be looked up, dude. Also reminds that he opposed Clarence Thomas, Roberts and Scalito. He says the discussion is intellectually dishonest in that the procedure is so rare, but the legal maneuver is a first step toward ending Roe.
Kucinich says he wants to get America together in support of a "culture of life" including prenatal care, universal healthcare, etc., and listen carefully to those who are opposed to abortion. I'm now wondering if Kucinich has changed his mind on abortion (he used to oppose it) or if he's just being deft for the primaries.
Dodd is asked whether he regrets his vote for Roberts on the SUPCO (he's the only one on the dais who voted in favor of him.) Dodd says he's disappointed in Roberts, then he quickly moves on to Alito, and his history of voting pro-life.
7:52 ...
Each candidate is asked to pick a model SUPCO justice:
Richardson - Windsor White (dead), among the living? Ruth Bader GinsbergDodd -- Brennan (dead), GinsbergEdwards -- Ginsberg or Breyer
Clinton, did the government fail those students at VA tech. Yes. She throws in a "Bill" reference, talking about accompanying the then president to Columbine. We need to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally unstable. During the Clinton administration, that was a goal -- not to curtail gun ownershiprights. The background checks clearly didn't work.
Bill Richardson -- you are currently the NRA's favorite candidate in either party. Did anything about the massacre make you rethink your position on guns? Richardson smartly starts with condolences. He says he's a westerner and a hunter and the Second Amendment is precious in the west. Two big problems here are mental illness, and instant background checks should be properlyfunded at the state and local level. Richardson parries quickly to mental health parity. That NRA thing makes Richardson an even more attractive veep, I think.
Show of hands: how many of you have had a gun in the house: Gravel, Biden, Dodd, Richardson and Kucinich.
Biden: what could the feds have done? Biden's bragging again, saying he was the guy who put 100,000 cops on the street "that the Clinton administration made work so well." Aye, yay, yay! He then says close the gun show loophole, etc. says schools should be able to remove a student deemed dangerous.
Next up, taxes: Edwards is asked which taxes he'd raise. He says he'd get rid of the Bush tax cuts for those making $200K a year or more. Then he does the big dodge. Require employers to coverall employees with healthcare. But what about those tax cuts, dude?
Obama -- have a national pool people can buy into if they don't have health coverage, similar to what members of Congress enjoy. Second, control costs. Obama has statistics, which is good, includingthe rise in Black infant mortality. But weren't we talking about taxes?
Hillary says she tried to put forth a universal healthcare plan and people got scared. She says she's ready to try again. She says save money within the existing system first, before spending new money on new programs.
Richardson called the most strident in opposing tax increases to pay for healthcare. Richardson reminds the room that as a governor, he deals with these issues daily. His healthcare plan: no new bureaucracy, every American shares the costs, focus on prevention, cut out inefficiencies and bureaucracies, better information sharing to save cash, cut out middle men like HMOs between docs and patients. Richardson has clearly carved out the position as the most centrist or conservative guy in the race.
Q from the viewers: Re the ban on SC from the NAACP over the Confederate flag. Why are you guys here?
Biden answers that we're here because we were asked by James Clyburn, and it's better to show off this historically Black college than to walk away from this opportunity.
Barack says the Confederate flag should be put in a museum, that's where it belongs. But we've got really big problems, such as Black infant mortality. Parries to "people are hungry for change." Deft dodge.
Another Q from viewers: biggest professional or personal mistake? Gravel gets it. This should be good. Says he's the senior statesman up there and was beginning to feel like a potted plant. Then he tries to use Ronald Reagan's "youth and inexperience" line to no effect. Kucinich says his biggie was firing the police chief on the 6:00 news when he was mayor of Cleveland. Hillary says not enough time to list all of hers, but ends with "believing the president when he said he'd go to the U.N. on Iraq." Barack says he shouldn't have left the Senate in advance of the Terri Schiavo vote. Biden: overestimating the competence and underestimating the arrogance of the Bush administration. Edwards: voting for the Iraq war. "Unfortunately I'll have to live with that forever. The lesson I learned is to listen to my own judgment". Dodd: voting for the war. Richardson: being too impatient and aggressive, including a push to increase the minimum wage, and instead of pursuing diplomacy, tried to ram it through the legislature. Strange one to choose in a Democratic primary.
Next Q: would you defy the American people if you were president by offering amesty to illegal immigrants? Hillary: says she's for comprehensive reform, letting illegal migrants pay a fine, get in line and become citizens. Nobody else got socked with this one.
To Biden, how can we reverse the American brain drain? Raise teacher pay to get the best teachers in the world.
To Dodd: shouldn't welfare recipients have to pass a drug test? Dodd says we're an overtested society. Let's try a little tenderness.
To Edwards: with oil co profits so high, why is gas so expensive? Edward says we need to address climate change and dependence on foreign oil, focus on new technologies. Edwards isn't really giving me charisma, I have to say.
The candidates are fielding more questions from viewers. I won't recount them all. Kucinich is talking now, about healthcare and his universal plan, no profits for anybody, blah blah blah.
For all comers, one sentence please: "while sitting in the Oval Office on day one of your administration, what's the first thing you want to accomplish?"
Richardson -- get us out of Iraq, day two: Apollo program on energy independence, day three: climate change, day four: day off. That wasn't one sentence, so nobody else got a shot.
Next section will be non-Iraq foreign policy.
Obama is asked who are America's three most important allies. He says EU is most important, and we've made new allies via NATO. He's veered off into Afghanistan now, and I'm not quite sure why... looking east, the center of gravity is shifting to Asia. Japan has been a great ally, but China is rising, though they're not an enemy or a friend. I count two so far. In a follow up, Brian Williams notes that Obama didn't mention Israel. He calls him out on saying "nobody has suffered as much as the Palestinian people." Obama points out that the rest of that sentence was "because of failed Palestinian leadership." He'll get slammed tomorrow by the AIPAC lobby.
Biden? Biggest threats besides Iraq? North Korea, Iran and Putin's tendency to move in a totalitarian direction in Russia. Biden adds that we have to jettison the ideas of preemption and regime change in favor of "prevention" and "conduct change." This administration "is saying give up the weapons that are the only things keeping us from attacking you, and once you do that, we're gonna take you out."
Gravel says we have no enemies. We must start treating other countries as equals. Kucinich should fall on his knees tonight and thank God that this guy was on the dais...
Edwards is asked whether Russia is a friend or foe. He says the government has moved away from democracy under Putin, but we need to ask "how to make America a force for good again." He's having a Princess Di moment, talking about showing U.S. commitment to good things.
Richardson, the only diplomat in the house is asked how he would do things differently with Russia. The governor says he wants to see control of loose nukes, a new policy on Chechnya, stable energy supplies and more democracy. "Being stubborn isn't a foreign policy, and power without focus is blind." He says he would focus on terrorism and nuke proliferation. Richardson sounds great on these issues. Very coherent.
Next, Hil is asked about the Giuliani "vote for me or die" quote, and is asked how Republicans got that "protector" vibe going? She's pointing out the disconnect between rhetoric and reality on port and homeland security, and says the administration hypes the fear, but doesn't deliver. And its foreign policy "has made the world less stable, which ... has a ripple effect on what we're going to face in the future." Hil didn't take the opportunity to attack Rudy directly, interestingly. Maybe she's keeping her eye on New Jersey, the only contestible Blue state, or New York itself? Dodd is basically reiterating Hillary. No news here.
Show of hands: is there a global war on terror? All hands went up except Edwards, Kucinich and Gravel. But no hands were held very high... Kucinich says that the GWOT has been a pre-text for aggressive war. He says he wants to stop using war as a foreign policy instrument and get rid of all U.S. nukes. Right. Gravel: please save this guy...
Obama: how would you change the U.S. military stance overseas if two U.S. cities were hit by al-Qaida (why two, Brian?) Obama says we need to change our domestic response capabilities, get good intelligence on who carried it out (Williams just said it was al-Qaida...) He's off on not using faulty intel and bluster, and talking to the international community. This was Barack's weakest answer of the night.
Edwards, same Q: Edwards says he'd make sure it was al-Qaida and try to figure out how they got passed us. So far, two answers, no winners. On GWOT, we have more tools than bombs.
Hil: starts her answer "Having been a Senator on 9/11..." nice. Says "a president must move swiftly to retaliate." ... If there were nations who gave aid or assisted the attack, we respond swiftly. Says she supported hitting the Taliban. Says we haven't found Bin Laden. Says "let's focus on who attacked us and let's get 'em." FINALLY, the right answer! Geez...
Impeach Cheney? No hands supporting Kucinich. So is it an appropriate use of time and energy? Kucinich has whipped out his pocket constitution, a la Senator Byrd.
Dodd: for civil unions, not for gay marriage.
Biden: time to get serious on climate change.
Richardson just threw in that he'd have a swift military response to a terror attack. Now on to Castro, Richardson we need to "find ways to deal with a post-democratic Cuba" -- I think he meant a post-Castro Cuba. He said he's opposed to the family visit ban by the Bushies, and says we should reevaluate the embargo. Miami's old school won't like that one...
Senator Mike Gravel is talking again ... he's really nutty...
Kucinich is calling out Barack on saying "all options are on the table" when it comes to Iran. He's saying we have to change energy policies and stop using war as a strategic tactic. Obama responds that it would be a mistake to go to war with Iran, but Iran having nukes would be a threat to us, and they are a major sponsor of terror. We just got our first "let me finish..." Obama is trying to buck up his foreign policy strength quotient. Now Gravel is jumping in ... oh, lord. He says we need to stop "scaring the bejeezus out of" Iran. Okay, he just declared the U.S. the biggest violator of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Yep. Great way to be a credible candidate.
Now, on to who is your moral leader? Edwards is pausing a long time, but says he couldn't identify a single person. He then says he goes to the Lord for counsel, and now mentions his wife as a source of great conscience, his father too is cited as an influence.
Hillary is asked if Wal Mart is a good thing or bad thing overall for America. She says it's a "mixed blessing" -- allows people to stretch their dollars further, but they've raised issues of corporate responsibility re providing healthcare for employees, non-discrimination, etc. She says that the administration and corporate America "don't see middle class Americans." Another winner for Hil.
Biden is asked if the Dems lose a third time, it will be "modern day extinction" for the party, so is there a winner on this stage, putting himself aside? Biden says he sees winners, and says anyone who is "wishing for Hillary is making a mistake ... on the Republican side." Good that he added that last bit.
It was a given that Hillary was going to raise more money than God ... but who knew Mitt Romney was such a pistol? Romney didn't just win the GOP money primary, he whipped its tail, raising a surprise $23 million -- just $3 million shy of Hillary's mark -- to demolish the Republican field. Rudy "Third Time's the Charm" Giuliani took in around $15 million (he's out there boasting that he can raise $100 million -- and he's telling the media to "lay offhis third / hussy/dog-harming wife!", and poor, addled John McCain, who has self-immolated over Iraq, took in just $12.5 million. Meanwhile, a new poll shows that a non-candidate/television actor/former Senator, Fred Thompson, goes from zero to third place among Republican voters, sucking most of his 12% polling numbers from Rudy, who's now down in the 30s, after hovering around 44 percent in USAT/Gallup. The caveat with Romney is that he was an investment banker at one point in his life, and made a lot of big money contacts as head of the U.S. Olympic Committee, and as Chris Matthews just pointed out on Hardball, when you marry Romney's fundraising to his low poll numbers, you get one hell of a high per capita rate (meaning Romney is the candidate of the very rich, and not much more...)
What gives?
There clearly is no Republican front runner right now, and a lot of dissatisfaction is in evidence on the right side of the dial. That leads me to believe that Thompson, despite a stunning lack of substance that even some RedStaters have noticed, as evidenced in this surprisingly lucid post (once you look past the strained attempt not to call Dubya a failed president), could still emerge as a front runner in this rather pitiable field.
On the Dem side, Bill Richardson did better than expected at $6 million, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden should just hang it up, and Edwards did pretty well. The big question is how much did Barack Obama raise, which we'll find out probably tomorrow. The Hillary people are already trying to raise expectations, putting out the buzz that Barack's haul could be as much as $21 million. We'll see.
Meanwhile, here are the latest poll numbers from Florida:
THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton 36 percent Al Gore, 16 percent Barack Obama 13 percent John Edwards 11 percent (all other candidates below 5 percent)
Hillary and Giuliani are in roughly the same position, while poor Baghdad John is in the shitter, with Newt Gingrich, of all people, trailing him by just 4 percentage points. The Al Gore number is interesting, as Dems still haven't let go of their Gore nostalgia. I maintain that if he ran, he couldn't win, but that's just me. Once Dem voters finally get over it (rent his climate change movie and call it a day, folks...) I think Hillary will put some distance between herself and her competitors, with Obama ticking up a little, too.
So why does no-talent wonder Antonella Barba get to stay on Idol while Frenchie, from years past, got the axe for HER near-nudie online pix? It's called Googlability, folks. Barba is commercial with a "capital K"... still, that hasn't stopped one activist from taking decisive action...
And is there someone even dumber than the Coltergeist? Yes ma'am, and her-m...'s name is Shamela. Meanwhile Slate explains why Mr. Coulter is the dude in a skirt who will not be ignored...
Yee-haw! Hillary is dog-gone Kentucky frahd ... in Selma! But is her fake southern accent more hilarious than Madonna's phony British twang? It's a tough call...
Now this is wierd ... a drill sergeant accused of forcing recruits to dress up like Superman and submit to sex acts ... yeesh...
And for "worst persons in the world" ... Israel and Iran, followed closely by the U.S. and North Korea. Well, at least we didn't top the list this time.
More from that ABC/WaPo poll, and it's bad news for Mama:
The latest poll put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 24 percent, Gore at 14 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. None of the other Democrats running received more than 3 percent. With Gore removed from the field, Clinton would gain ground on Obama, leading the Illinois senator 43 percent to 27 percent. Edwards ran third at 14 percent. The poll was completed the night Gore's documentary film "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Academy Award.
Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the shifts among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.
African Americans view Clinton even more positively than they see Obama, but in the time since he began his campaign, his favorability rating rose significantly among blacks. In the latest poll, 70 percent of African Americans said they had a favorable impression of Obama, compared with 54 percent in December and January.
Coupled together, the sudden emergence in the polls of Al Gore (who got more Black votes in 2000 than any presidential candidate ever, and the continued sizzle of Barack Obama are bad news for the Clinton campaign. Luckily for her, she has the name ID and the cash to go the distance, and no one else in the race can say that, at least not now. One piece of good news for Hil in the poll:
Her position on the war in Iraq does not appear to be hurting Clinton among Democrats, even though she has faced hostile questioning from some voters about her 2002 vote authorizing President Bush to go to war. Some Democrats have demanded that she apologize for the vote, which she has declined to do.
The Post-ABC News poll found that 52 percent of Democrats said her vote was the right thing to do at the time, while 47 percent said it was a mistake. Of those who called it a mistake, however, 31 percent said she should apologize. Among Democrats who called the war the most important issue in deciding their 2008 candidate preference, Clinton led Obama 40 to 26 percent.
Something to hold onto at Camp Hillary, where they're still smarting from that recent dust-up with Barack.
Ah, the sweet smell of political napalm in the morning...
The Clinton-Obama avoidapallooza is finally getting good and nasty ... let's review...
Round one: Obama non-fan Maureen Dowd takes notes as former Clinton funder David Geffen goes postal on the Clintons, saying:
"Everybody in politics lies, but they [the Clintons] do it with such ease, it’s troubling..."
Ouch! The Hotline has more Geffen nastiness for those who, like me, are too cheap to pay for Times Select:
Geffen, who is backing Barack Obama, called Bill Clinton "reckless" and clearly is still upset that Clinton didn't grant a pardon to cause celeb native American Leonard Peltier. More Geffen: "Marc Rich getting pardoned? An oil-profiteer expatriate who left the country rather than pay taxes or face justice?"
Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson issued the following statement today demanding that Barack Obama disavow personal attacks that his campaign finance chair made against Senator Clinton in this morning's New York Times:
"While Senator Obama was denouncing slash and burn politics yesterday, his campaign's finance chair was viciously and personally attacking Senator Clinton and her husband.
"If Senator Obama is indeed sincere about his repeated claims to change the tone of our politics, he should immediately denounce these remarks, remove Mr. Geffen from his campaign and return his money.
"While Democrats should engage in a vigorous debate on the issues, there is no place in our party or our politics for the kind of personal insults made by Senator Obama's principal fundraiser.
From spokesperson Robert Gibbs: "We aren’t going to get in the middle of a disagreement between the Clintons and someone who was once one of their biggest supporters. It is ironic that the Clintons had no problem with David Geffen when was raising them $18 million and sleeping at their invitation in the Lincoln bedroom. It is also ironic that Senator Clinton lavished praise on Monday and is fully willing to accept today the support of South Carolina State Sen. Robert Ford, who said if Barack Obama were to win the nomination, he would drag down the rest of the Democratic Party because ’he's black.’"
Ow!!! It smarts!!!
If this keeps up, Rudy G is gonna have to put that dress on to get Chris Matthews attention!
And by the way, the Hotline blog also has the scoop on Obama's million dollar Hollywood babies ... and Jesse Jackson, too...
Hillary Clinton's inexorable march toward the White House continues this week, fresh off a weekend when she humanized herself with an off-tune rendition of the national anthem, rhetorically kicked Dubya's ass by declaring that it would be the height of irresponsiblity for him to leave office with U.S. troops still stuck in Iraq, essentially passing his disaster on to the next president -- and that, as the presumptive next president -- she was "offended" by the mere possibility ... and when new polls showed her watering the garden with her Democratic and Republican opponnents. First, the poll: it's from Newsweek, and it shows Bush plummeting to still further depths following his sorry State of the Union speech, and Hillary rising, fast:
Jan. 27, 2007 - President George W. Bush concluded his annual State of the Union address this week with the words “the State of our Union is strong … our cause in the world is right … and tonight that cause goes on.” Maybe so, but the state of the Bush administration is at its worst yet, according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll. The president’s approval ratings are at their lowest point in the poll’s history—30 percent—and more than half the country (58 percent) say they wish the Bush presidency were simply over, a sentiment that is almost unanimous among Democrats (86 percent), and is shared by a clear majority (59 percent) of independents and even one in five (21 percent) Republicans. Half (49 percent) of all registered voters would rather see a Democrat elected president in 2008, compared to just 28 percent who’d prefer the GOP to remain in the White House. ...
Oh, God, that's depressing! Please, let's get back to Hillary:
Sen. Hillary Clinton has pumped up her lead over GOP Sen. John McCain since she formally announced she's running for President, a new poll shows. Clinton would defeat McCain - who has taken heat for defending President Bush's stance on the Iraq war - 50% to 44%, according to a Newsweek poll released yesterday.
A Newsweek survey conducted right before Clinton's Jan. 20 announcement had her leading McCain 48% to 47%.
Newsweek found freshman Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would also beat McCain, 48% to 42%, and former veep nominee John Edwards would edge McCain by four points - within the survey's margin of error.
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani would also lose to Clinton in a White House faceoff, although she bested the Republican by a slim 49% to 46%.
Giuliani lost to Obama by three points, but defeated Edwards in a one-point dead heat.
All three Democrats would crush Massachusetts Republican Mitt Romney, the survey found.
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics cautioned that the election is a long way off.
"All it means is that right now, the Republicans are in terrible shape," Sabato said.
"Right now, just about any Democrat could beat just about any Republican," he said. "This is more a measure of the fact that right now, Democrats are riding high. Too bad for them the election isn't next month."
Given a choice between Clinton and Edwards, Dems chose Clinton 62% to 29% as their party's standard bearer.
In a matchup with Obama, Clinton won 55% to 35%.
Ah ... that's better. Poll geeks can click here for the particulars.
I don't think this is curtains for Barack by any stretch -- he only has room to grow, and the real odd man out right now is our man Edwards, who only has Iowa to hang on to at the moment, and Hil is quickly moving in there, too. And speaking of same, Hillary was in Iowa over the weekend, singing her little Hillary heart out ... and badly ... to absolutely adorable effect:
First, a CBS News poll finds Democrats favor Hillary by a wide margin over Barack. No surprise there, since Mama is the Big Dog in the race. And as for Black respondents ... well ... they prefer Hillary too, by 51 percent to just 28 percent. Clearly, Obama has some work to do among African-Americans, who seem to be suspicious of his ... how to say ... lack of overt Blackcentrity...
The junior Senator from New York makes it official on the eve of the Sunday shows (video here), forcing a pause in the Obama media freight train. She leads the latest ABC-WaPo poll, and will continue to crush the rest of the field in terms of fundraising, name I.D. and celebrity status.
Of course, nervous Nelly Dems will continue to quake and ask the question, "can she win?" They're worried about her polarization factor, the woman factor, and of course, the Clinton sex scandal factor. But here's the thing: everybody knows everything there probably is to know about the Clintons -- good and bad. Americans have already taken it into account. That means that Hillary can only do one of two things, when it comes to the non-traditional, general election audiences she needs to woo: she can either confirm their worst suspicions about her (that she's a social climbing shrew who let her hubby pork another woman and get away with it so she could fulfill her own, venemous and strangely male ambitions) ... or, she can pleasantly surprise them, the way she has done with Republican-leaning upstate New Yorkers and Republican members of the Senate. My bet is that Hillary has the discipline and the skills to do the latter. When people in the flyover states get a good, first hand look at her, I think most will say to themselves, "why she ain't so bad..." and compared to the nitwit in the Oval Office now, she's damned refreshing.
So can Hillary win? Of course she can. Presidential politics is about money, marketing and media control. She can raise more money than God, she has 100 percent first name-only name recognition, and as long as she doesn't make a mistake, she can deny the MSM the more obvious shots at her. And as for being polarizing, there is no single political figure more polarizing than President George W. Bush, and I think he won in 2004.
As for her challengers, Clinton may have to split the Black vote with Edwards and even more so with Obama (so long as most Blacks don't decide he isn't steeped enough in the old civil rights movement, ergo not "Black enough..." but she will retain the ability to win that audience back once she wins the primary -- and I think the odds right now favor her doing just that, with Obama and Edwards finishing a strong second and a less strong than expected third, respectively.
And then, if she faces Mr. Sellout, John McCain, I think she wins. If it's Mr. Fascist, Rudy Giuliani, it will be her job to redefine him as the Black man-hating, wife swapping authoritarian that he is. And then she beats him. And let's keep it real -- there are no other serious Republican candidates (sorry, Newt.)
Get ready to live under the rule of Mother (Nancy Pelosi) AND Mom, Republicans. It's gonna be a hell of a next ten years.
Update ... so, what do the Reds think? Here's one scintillating analysis (short version: Hillary steals the Sunday shows and manipulates the media... film at 11...)
his third / hussy/
Meanwhile a WaPo poll has 
