Alaska's "First Dude," Todd Palin bragged not too long ago that he and his buddies built his family's dream home off Lake Lucerne himself. Turns out, by "himself," he meant with free labor from the same contractors who built Wasila's brand spanking new hockey rink (millions of dollars over budget) at the behest of the city's former mayor ... Sarah Palin. From reporter Wayne Barret of the Village Voice:
The $12.5 million sports complex and hockey rink that is the lasting monument to Palin's two terms as Wasilla mayor is also a monument to the kind of insider politics that dismays Americans of both parties. Six months before Palin stepped down as mayor in October 2002, the city awarded nearly a half-million-dollar contract to design the biggest project in Wasilla history to Kumin Associates. Blase Burkhart was the Kumin architect on the job—the son of Roy Burkhart, who is frequently described as a "mentor" of Palin and was head of the local Republican Party (his wife, June, who also advised Palin, is the national committeewoman). Asked if the contract was a favor, Roy Burkhart, who contributed to her campaign in the same time frame that his son got the contract, said: "I really don't know." Palin then named Blase Burkhart to a seven-member builder-selection committee that picked Howdie Inc., a mostly residential contractor owned at the time by Howard Nugent. Formally awarded the contract a couple of weeks after Palin left office, Nugent has donated $4,000 to Palin campaigns. Two competitors protested the process that led to Nugent's contract. Burkhart and Nugent had done at least one project together before the complex—and have done several since.
A list of subcontractors on the job, obtained by the Voice, includes many with Palin ties. One was Spenard Builders Supply, the state's leading supplier of wood, floor, roof, and other "pre-engineered components." In addition to being a sponsor of Todd Palin's snow-machine team that has earned tens of thousands for the Palin family, Spenard hired Sarah Palin to do a statewide television commercial in 2004. When the Palins began building a new family home off Lake Lucille in 2002—at the same time that Palin was running for lieutenant governor and in her final months as mayor—Spenard supplied the materials, according to Antoine Bricks, who works in its Wasilla office. Spenard actually filed a notice "of its right to assert a lien" on the deed for the Palin property after contracting for labor and materials for the site. Spenard's name has popped up in the trial of Senator Stevens—it worked on the house that is at the center of the VECO scandal as well.
Todd Palin told Fox News that he built the two-story, 3,450-square-foot, four-bedroom, four-bath, wood house himself, with the help of contractors he described as "buddies." As mayor, Sarah Palin blocked an effort to require the filing of building permits in the wide-open city, and there is no public record of who the "buddies" were. The house was built very near the complex, on a site whose city purchase led to years of unsuccessful litigation and, now, $1.3 million in additional costs, with a law firm that's also donated to Palin collecting costly fees from the city.
Dorwin and Joanne Smith, the principals of complex subcontractor DJ Excavation & Development, have donated $7,100 to Palin and her allied candidate Charlie Fannon (Joanne is a Palin appointee on the state Board of Nursing). Sheldon Ewing, who owns another complex subcontractor, Weld Air, has donated $1,300, and PN&D, an engineering firm on the complex, has contributed $699.
Ewing was one of the few sports-complex contractors, aside from Spenard, willing to address the question of whether he worked on the house as well, but he had little to say: "I doubt that it occurred, but if it did indirectly, how would I know anyhow?" The odd timing of Palin's house construction—it was completed two months before she left City Hall and while she and Todd Palin were campaigning statewide for the first time—raises questions, especially considering its synergy with the complex.
So ... I guess being a maverick involves ... cronyism, enriching oneself through one's office, and getting a brand new hockey rink AND a new house that the taxpayers pay you to live in? Who knew?
Thompson is out of the presidential race. No shocker, there. He has done his job, and now will wait the opportunity to form the oldest, dullest presidential ticket in history, with his friend John McCain...
CBS News' ratings also-ran Katie Couric apparently lightly grills the presidential contenders on whether an unfaithful spouse can make a faithful POTUS. Drudge has the alleged transcript. Best answer: Huckabee. Worst: Rudy. I mean, what's he gonna say...?
OK, a girl's got to have a day ... or ten ... off.
So what's been going on while I've been on birthday break?
The Republican race for president has actually become more interesting, while the Democratic race is becoming a bore. Yeah, yeah, there's Oprah and all, but since I don't watch Oprah, and I'm not in Iowa, or South Carolina (and thus didn't have one of those 18-zillion tickets to the O&O Show) I'd rather have a free basket of the grand lady's favorite things (without the taxes to pay, please.)
Meanwhile, a new CBS/NYT poll finds GOP voters even less excited by their race than I am about ours.
Democratic voters, on the whole, view their candidates considerably more favorably than Republican voters do, and are much more optimistic about their prospects next November. Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 68 percent of Democrats, followed by Mr. Obama who is viewed favorably by 54 percent. Mr. Edwards is viewed favorably by just 36 percent.
By contrast, on the Republican side, Mr. Giuliani is viewed the most favorably by members of his party — and that is by only 41 percent. Mr. McCain is viewed favorably by 37 percent and Mr. Romney is viewed favorably by 36 percent. Mr. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 30 percent, but 42 percent said they didn’t know enough about him to say whether to offer a view of him, suggesting that he might be vulnerable to the kind of attacks that his opponents have already been raising against them.
Among Republicans, 76 percent of respondents said that they could still change their mind about who to support, compared with 23 percent who said their decision was firm. Among Democrats, 59 percent said they might change their mind.
Libby Bass, 67, a Republican poll respondent from Woodbine, Georgia, said in a follow-up interview that she was weary of hearing the Republicans argue with one another, and that she was not ready to make a decision. “They’re not telling us what their plans or goals are; they’re just mimicking each other,” she said. “I’m waiting to see if someone comes up with something that will change my mind.
And there is no clear leader among Republicans: Mr. Giuliani was the choice of 22 percent of respondents, Mr. Huckabee with 21 percent and Mr. Romney with 16 percent. Senator John McCain of Arizona and Fred Thompson of Tennessee each had 7 percent.
On the Democratic side, the leader, Mrs. Clinton, has the support of 44 percent of respondents, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Obama and just 11 percent for Mr. Edwards. The rest of the Democratic candidates drew 2 percent or lower.
A CBS News poll conducted in mid-October — which offered voters a choice only of Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards — found Mrs. Clinton with 51 percent, Mr. Obama with 23 percent and Mr. Edwards with 13 percent.
CBS is playing up the Huckabee angle, but Mike's got some problems he might want to take to Jesus...
...and that's in addition to the fact that some RedStaters fear and loathe him on tax policy.
Huck's got issues on quarantining the gays, and the Blacks and the hemophiliacs ... you know, all those carrying the deadly plague of AIDS...
He's facing new scrutiny of his controversial push to pardon a rapist whose victim was Bill Clinton's second cousin ... mainly because he appears to have pandered to the worst elements inside Arkansas, who couldn't accept the word of anyone related to Bill Clinton that she was victimized, even when a jury did accept her word, and that of the police, and the forensics people ... you know, the people who investigate such things...
So much for Huck being the "nice" candidate.
Other excitement on the GOP side:
Apparently Mitt Romney is a super duper Christian ... who knew? And he'll work hard as president to root out the evils of secularism, wherever it rears its ugly head. He will not, however, and did not in his big speech last week, explain the magical underpants. Perhaps fellow Mormon Glenn Beck will step up to the plate on that one.
Tim Russert finally asked a lethal question of a Republican, on this Sunday's Meet the Press, after Sir Rudy of 9/11 attempted to blame the NYPD for Judy's official, taxpayer dog walking security force, saying it was they, and not he, who demanded that Rudy's gal pal get protection, and that poor Judy didn't even want it (the poor dear). To that, Russert asked this:
MR. RUSSERT: Using that reasoning, would it be appropriate for a president to provide Secret Service protection for his mistress?
Bingo. And here's Rudy's waaaaay too long answer:
MR. GIULIANI: It would not be appropriate to, to do it for that reason, Tim, and that isn’t, that, that isn’t the right way to—you know, that isn’t the right way to, to analyze it or to say this. The reason it’s done is because somebody threatens to do harm, and the people who assess it come to the conclusion that it is necessary to do this. The reality is that it all came about because of my public position, because of the fact that when people are public or celebrities these kinds of threats take place. And the New York City Police Department has rules; they applied the rules, they applied them in exactly the same way as they always apply them. I did not make the judgment. I didn’t ask for it. Judith didn’t particularly want it, but it was done because they took the view that it was serious and it had to be done this way. And it was done the way they wanted to do it.
In fact, when you get security like this—and many people think, you know, this is a great convenience. And, and this is not at all to suggest that I don’t have great respect for the processionals who do this. Honestly, Tim, I know how it gets played in the media. This is not something you would want. You would not want to have this security, because it is coming about because somebody has threatened to do terrible things to you or your family and professionals have evaluated it that way and feel you need the security. And you say to them, “Can I do this? Can I do that? Can I go here? Can I go there?” And they tell you, “No, you can’t.” So this is not something—I know how it gets played, but this is not something that anybody ever desires. I remember the first time it happened with me. I mean, the things that I liked to do, I couldn’t, I couldn’t do any more, because they would tell me “You can’t do it this way. You have to do it another way.”
Uh-huh... Here's the take from Tom DeFrank of the NYDN:
His explanation of Nathan's police car service doesn't square with Friday's Daily News exclusive report, citing multiple witnesses and a law enforcement source, that she was being protected by city taxpayers months before the affair was revealed in May 2000.
"The threats were after" their romance became known, Giuliani maintained Sunday. The only guest on Russert's "Meet the Press," Giuliani endured a withering examination of his personal character and business dealings.
To the glee of fellow presidential contenders, the Republican front-runner spent nearly an hour playing defense, attempting to deflect a flurry of questions about his relationship with indicted pal Bernard Kerik and Kerik's mistress Judith Regan, controversial corporate clients and his own tangled personal life.
"The baggage is finally starting to catch up with him," a neutral GOP consultant said.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side of the aisle, the news is all ...
In all serioiusness, if Barack Obama's team can figure out a way to translate his pop culture wave into real votes, he has a damned good chance of getting the nomination. Hillary still has the machine, and the strongest ground team on the Democratic side, and honestly, new, "hype" voters are serially unreliable on election day, but if Barack can do what Howie Dean could not in 2004, he could pull off wins in Iowa and South Carolina, and seriously shake Hill's inevitability.
OK, the Dem race isn't all that boring. But its much more fun to watch the GOPers flail around, I must say.
The Elderly White Man Talking Show, starring Anderson Cooper
I thought this thing would be boring as hell, but ...
Willard (Romney) just cold cocked Rudy Giuliani on illegal immigration and "sanctuary cities." After Rudy punched back on his Sanctuary City record in NYC by accusing the Mittster of having a "sanctuary mansion" because he allegedly employed illegal immigrants, Romney called Rudy on the carpet by asking a very pertinent question: to paraphrase, "are you telling me that if you hire a company to perform a service at your home, like painting your roof, that you should be responsible for going out and asking any workers employed, not by you, but by the company you hired, and who don't look like you or who have a foreign sounding accent ... are you saying you should go out and ask them to show you their papers?"
Rudy couldn't answer.
Next up was Sleepy Fred, who said he found it interesting that Rudy would attack another candidate based on poor hiring decisions ... ouch. Had he delivered that line while wide awake, it might have been a keeper.
Incidentally, when Rudy tried to hit Romney again, the crowd booed ... and I mean booed Rudy. These guys are debating in Tampa, in what should be the heart of Rudy Country. The mayor is putting all his cards on Florida. Not a good look so far.
Update: John McCain is in the process of boring my husband...
Update 2: Romney is following up on a good McCain answer on GOP overspending. Romney is still the most polished slick (sorry, I must have been dozing off when I wrote that...) of these losers... I mean, candidates, although pound for pound, I think Rev. Huckabee is the best candidate (no formerly fat joke intended... He's the most authentic and despite being the most fundamentalist, he's also the least wierd, Ron Paul excepted...) Anyway, Rudy just used his first Ronald Reagan. I wonder if any of the Youtubers will ask him about voting for George McGovern (because he wanted to vote for Richard Nixon... but ... forgot ... ?)
Update 3: Okay, these guys are now officially boring me to tears. I guess the first five minutes were a clever Republican deception. Best answer so far, Ron Paul just answered the question about cutting programs by saying cut the Department of Education and bring the troops home from Iraq. Huckabee says get rid of the IRS by switching to the Fair Tax.
Revised: best answer so far -- Mike Huckabee said we should get rid of the IRS because "most people are more afraid of an audit than a mugging."
Update 4: Uh-oh, look at John McCain trying to step up ... McCain just hit Ron Paul on Iraq, saying of his views on Iraq: "that kind of thinking got us into World War II." and he used the "a" word (appeasement). Mick got a few applause on that one, but Ron Paul hit back, saying McCain doesn't even understand the difference between isolationism and non-interventionalism.
Okay, now they're doing their tax cut pledges. Going back to sleep now...
Update 5: waking back up. Anderson Cooper just asked Rudy about his taxpayer paid police detail to the Hamptons in the most dismissive, namby pamby manner possible, not even mentioning that the trips Rudy took were allegedly getaways with his mistress. Of course, Rudy dismissed it, and said he can't discuss his security needs because "there were threats that I don't often talk about..." Oooh, suspense. How un-journslistic of you, Anderson. He even responded to Rudy's answer by snapping, "good."
Update 6: the ultimate GOP billboard. Some hickbilly just asked the candidates to describe the guns they own. Never has there been a more irrelevant, backwater question in a debate (okay the UFO thing was pretty bad, too...)
Update 7: Reverend Huckabee is trying to explain how you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. The question was, "regarding the death penalty, what would Jesus do?" Huck didn't answer. He just added that "Jesus was too smart to run for public office." Tancredo dropped the ball on the question, too. This is one of those questions that no winger can answer credibly, because it exposes a core hypocrisy of the conservative movement. The answer is that Jesus was in the business of saving people, not killing them.
Now Rudy is answering a pretty creepy Internet guy's question about whether the candidates believe every word of the Bible by saying he doesn't believe it literally, but he "reads it a lot..." His answer was way too long to be credible, although I guess it makes sense since the Bible has stuff in there about not committing adultery.
Another emblematic moment for Republicans and conservatives. Many of their followers are almost robotic in their literalism and lack of complexity. What they want in a candidate is someone with a lot of guns, who believes literally in the Bible, who wants to jail abortion providers (and in some cases, the women getting abortions, too) but who matches being pro-life with a zeal to kill convicts and Arabs. They're so obtuse, they're almost South Park characters...
Update 8: another question Republicans simply can't answer. A questioner act how would you repair America's image in the Muslim world?
Rudy Giuliani - "by fighting the Islamofascist hoarde"
John McCain - "by continuing the surge in Iraq and never letting the Dems surrender!"
Duncan Hunter - "we save your asses when it floods in your God forsaken countries you foreign bastards!
And another - "do you oppose waterboarding?"
Romney - "we don't discuss our torture methods. ... and long live Gitmo!" (Romney also said he wants "what happened to Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to happen to other terror suspects." So ... you want them to be waterboarded?
McCain - "I'm astonished that you haven't found out what waterboarding is, and that you would want that to happen to anyone in our capture. It's torture, it's a violation of the Geneva Conventions ... we're not gonna do what Pol Pot did ... how in the world anybody could think that that kind of thing could be inflicted on anyone in our custody is absolutely beyond me." Finally, someone who can answer the question. Romney is trying to recover, but why?
Wow. Mick just told his base that "I hope that we would understand, my friends, that life is not '24' or Jack Bauer." He just took a firm stand saying we should never allow torture to be countenenanced in our country. Good answer.
Okay, now some mook is blathering on about staying in Iraq forever and ever and ever... how long does this thing go, again ...?
Update 9: On Iraq, Ron Paul just followed up on a boring Fred Thompson shpiel by saying "the best thing we can do for the people of Iraq is to give them their country back." And Mick just missed Paul's point that after we left Vietnam (which McCain seems to think we won...) they became a modern trading partner rather than an enemy. "Vietnam achieved in peace what the French and the Americans couldn't achieve in 20 plus years of war." The troglodytes in the audience just booed him, but hey, they're Republicans...
Update 10: Ha! Rudy just answered a question about whether he's using 9/11 to enhance his political prospects by using the phrase "September 11,2001" four times. Oh, and he touted his record as a federal prosecutor in addition to his role as America's Mayor. Funny thing about that proscutorial record, though ... funny thing... From a July 1989 article in the New York Times:
In the midst of his Republican-Liberal campaign, a review of the Giuliani record, interviews with current and former prosecutors, law-enforcement officials, judges, defense lawyers and law professors, and a long interview with Mr. Giuliani present a profile of a skilled prosecutor who won some exceptional victories.
But the 45-year-old Mr. Giuliani is also coming to be seen by some as an ambitious prosecutor who used questionable judgment in several episodes at the Justice Department, both before and during his tenure as United States Attorney, and whose personal accomplishments may have been exaggerated by critics and supporters alike.
Even as Mr. Giuliani reaches for greater stature, many people - including some admirers - are urging that his larger-than-life image be reconsidered.
''People were caught up in the view of him as a superman or a devil,'' said Burt Neuborne, a professor at the New York University Law School and former national litigation director of the Amer-ican Civil Liberties Union.
''The truth is he was neither. He was a pretty good prosecutor who made some mistakes,'' Professor Neuborne said.
The Record Major Cases And Recognition
...Several of the most-noticed prosecutions begun in Mr. Giuliani's tenure are not complete. So they cannot be counted as his accomplishments. It is not clear whether the plea agreement Mr. Giuliani approved with Ivan F. Boesky, the arbitrager, will lead, as prosecutors hoped, to a conviction of Michael R. Milken, the former chief of high-yield bonds for Drexel Burnham Lambert.
Because of the ill health of Ferdinand E. Marcos, a Federal judge suspended the Government's case against the former president of the Philippines, and prosecutors have not had to test their charges against him; his wife, Imelda, and others.
The trial of the case against Leona Helmsley and two former aides under another major indictment filed in Mr. Giuliani's tenure has just begun. Attack by Judge
If there were major triumphs, there were also major setbacks, many of them recently. The divorce-fixing prosecution of Bess Myerson for supposedly trying to influence a State Supreme Court Justice ended in December with an acquittal. Shortly afterward, a Federal judge ruled that the Government had failed to prove, as Mr. Giuliani had charged, that the Genovese crime family controlled the main union at the Fulton Fish Market.
In March, another Federal judge threw out the charges against seven of 14 defendants in the Pizza Connection 2 heroin-trafficking case. The judge, John E. Sprizzo, ridiculed the caliber of the office Mr. Giuliani had recently left, calling the prosecutors incompetent and improperly trained.
Behind many headlines Mr. Giuliani generated, there was sometimes less substance than there appeared to be. He speaks frequently, for example, about his ''Federal day'' project, in which a day is chosen occasionally, without notice, when street drug dealers answer charges in Federal, instead of state, court. Because Federal drug enforcement is perceived as more punitive, the aim is to keep drug dealers off balance, not knowing where they might have to appear.
In 1986, the last year for which statistics from the Federal Bureau of Prisons are available, Mr. Giuliani's office sent 351 people to jail on controlled-substance and narcotics charges, including many who would have been arrested on Federal charges even without the special program.
That was 64 more people than were sent to prison by the Federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, who had no special project, and a small fraction of the 67,000 people arrested on narcotics charges in the city that year. Mr. Giuliani said he always warned that the program processed few people. The Image Out in Front When Camera's On.
... Some critics said Mr. Giuliani's flair sometimes overstated his accomplishments. He has long asserted he invented the use of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, or RICO, to pursue the Mafia commission. In his interview, Mr. Giuliani repeated an account he has told many times about formulating the idea before becoming United States Attorney, when he read a book by Joseph Bonnano Sr. about his life in the mob.
''Using it against the commission,'' Mr. Giuliani said, ''that was an idea that no one had until I developed it and went down to Washington and started talking about it. And I came to the office with it.''
That is flatly disputed by others who suggest the strategy was evolving. Mr. Martin said he had heard the approach discussed by highly placed people in the Federal Bureau of Investigation while he was a prosecutor. Mr. Goldstock of the state agency recalled that before Mr. Giuliani took office, Mr. Goldstock had fully briefed officials on bringing a RICO case against the five families.
Mr. Giuliani said the others' recollections were simply incorrect. ''Absolutely, totally not true,'' he said. ''Those people are now trying to recreate a good idea.''
And one more piece:
Mr. Giuliani's drive and self-assurance may have contributed to his few clear debacles as prosecutor. Campaign opponents question whether his strong commitments were motivated most by expediency.
They have questioned Mr. Giuliani's role as the main defender of the Justice Department policy of detaining illegal Haitian immigrants while he was the third-ranking official in the department in the Reagan Administration, which focused on control of illegal immigration. Human rights groups criticized the detention camps, saying many internees were political refugees trying to escape the repression of Jean-Claude Duvalier.
Mr. Giuliani said in the interview he still considered the policy justifiable, considering the problems caused by illegal immigration. McDonnell Douglas Case
Update 11: Mike Huckabee just blew Rudy out of the water on the question of why more African-Americans don't support the GOP. Rudy trotted out some tripe about reducing crime and giving out school vouchers. Huck on the other hand, said that 48 percent of AA voters in Arkansas supported him, "because I asked for their vote." He went on to talk about reaching out by way of appointments to his cabinet, and spending on things like diabetes and low income targeted healthcare.
Mittster and Sleepy Fred just took strong positions against the public display of the Confederate battle flag. Surprisingly un-pandery.
And Ron Paul has a quite good little Youtube commercial.
Sidebar: I'll tell you what, if the GOP had any sense, Huck would be the nominee. He would be the toughest candidate to beat, because shockingly, he comes off like a real "compassionate conservative" who is religious, but not looking to turn the country into a religious police state. What's also remarkable about Huckabee is that he, and Ron Paul, are the only two guys standing up there who seem to actually believe everything they're saying, which is why they don't have to pause or parse their words.
Okay, the debate is over. Rudy just tried to explain rooting for the BoSox.
So, if launching blistering attacks on Hillary Clinton isn't working for John Edwards, why would Barack Obama try the strategy on for size? And is the Obama camp preparing to go all netroots nuclear on Hillary? From the WaPo this morning:
"I think it is fair to say that I believe I can bring the country together more effectively than she can," Obama said. "I will add, by the way, that is not entirely a problem of her making. Some of those battles in the '90s that she went through were the result of some pretty unfair attacks on the Clintons. But that history exists, and so, yes, I believe I can bring the country together in a way she cannot do. If I didn't believe that, I wouldn't be running." ...
... "Her argument is going to be that 'I'm the experienced Washington hand,' and my argument is going to be that we need to change the ways of Washington," he said. "That's going to be a good choice for the American people."
Saying that Bill Clinton's presidency was good for America, he added: "The question is, moving forward, looking towards the future, is it sufficient just to change political parties, or do we need a more fundamental change in how business is done in Washington . . .? Do we need to break out of some of the ideological battles that we fought during the '90s that were really extensions of battles we fought since the '60s?"
Obama never used the term "polarizing" to describe Clinton but made it clear he has studied polls that show that many people have an unfavorable opinion of her. "I don't think there is anybody in this race who's able to bring new people into the process and break out of some of the ideological gridlock that we have as effectively as I can," he said.
Okay, but the problem for Barack is that Bill Clinton won the ideological war he fought with bloodthirsty Republicans in the 1990s - he won it on the economy, on competency and on "peace and prosperity." And he won it on impeachment. Democrats aren't shrinking from an ideological war with the new iteration of the GOP -- the neocon war party, bathed in corruption and incompetence -- most are relishing it.
I also think Barack risks becoming shrill, at at time when Democrats need to be united to win. Not a good look for the candidate of hope.
Michael Bloomberg, former Democrat, today became a former Republican. In other words, he's running for president. From the competition, a back and forth over who a Bloomberg (with Chuck Hagel?) candidacy would hurt:
"If he runs, this guarantees a Republican will be the next president of the United States. The Democrats have to be shaking in their boots," said Greg Strimple, a Republican strategist in New York who is unaligned in the race.
The belief among some operatives is that Bloomberg's moderate positions would siphon votes from the Democratic nominee. Others say it's not clear and his impact would depend on the nominees.
Former Democratic Party Chairman Donald Fowler said Bloomberg would be "a disturbing factor to both parties," but the mayor would probably draw more Republican votes simply because "Republicans are more disenchanted than Democrats."
"Democrats are pretty happy with their candidates," Fowler said. "The Republicans are absolutely in disarray."
He called Bloomberg "an exceptionally capable guy" who is "hard-nosed and accomplished," but argued that the obstacles for a third-party candidate are so daunting that it would be nearly impossible for Bloomberg to win.
Rudy Giuliani says George W. Bush will go down in history as a great president. Unfortunately, Rudy is very much alone in that belief. But for a few stalwarts, most Americans believe Mr. Bush to be an abject failure. In fact, only 28 percent of Americans int he latest Newsweek poll approve of the job Bush is doing as president. In the same poll, any of the top Democratic contenders would beat any of the Republicans, Rudy included, if the presidential election were held today. No surprise there. (One possible surprise, Barack Obama, who is becoming the darling not only of the media, but also of some prominent former Bush Republicans, does the best of the top tier Dems against the GOP's top guns.)
The Reidblog handy dandy guide to the first GOP presidential debate
The GOPers debate tonight, (and in so doing, they attempt to find their souls...) so in case you're not in the know, let's handicap the ten declared candidates, shall we? Here we go:
1. Rudy Giuliani Best known for saying, after 9/11, that the first thing he did after the attacks leveled the buildings where he had moved the command centers for the police and fire departments right after the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, was to turn to his crimie Bernard Kerik and say, "thank God George Bush and Dick Cheney are in the White House." Likes: gun control, wearing frilly dresses, gay civil unions (unless he's campaigning in the South) and public funding for abortion (see previous "like"). Dislikes: wives (once he finds a better one). Southern strategy: publicize the fact that he was once married to his cousin.
2. John McCain Also known as "Baghdad Johnnie". Best known for taking a stroll through an Iraqi market with 100 of his closest military friends, 2 Apache helicopters, 2 Blackhawk helicopters
3. Mitt Romney Best known for: Running the U.S. Olympic Committee, being a Mormon, and yet, having only one wife, and for looking exactly like Guy Smiley...
4. Sam Brownback Dubbed “God’s Senator” by Rolling Stone Magazine. Voted NO on $100M to reduce teen pregnancy by education & contraceptives. Voted NO on repealing tax subsidy for companies which move US jobs offshore. Voted NO on $1.15 billion per year to continue the COPS program to put more police officers on the street. And says Stare decisis would have upheld separate-but-equal! What would Jesus do, indeed.
5. Mike Huckabee Former governor of Arkansas. Most famous for: losing a busload of weight (over 110 pounds). Biggest problem for the GOP: as governor, he raised taxes, a big no-no.
6. Duncan Hunter Most famous for: promoting the Gitmo diet, and saying that the food at the Guantanamo detention facility is to die for! Perhaps no one briefed the California congressman about the suicides...
7. Tom Tancredo Most famous for: calling Miami a Third World country. Southern strategy: don't campaign in Miami.
8. Tommy Thompson Former governor of Wisconsin and Bush's onetime Health and Human Services secretary. As secretary, he helped create Bush's stem cell research compromise, which legalized federal funding for the use of ... well ... compromised, old and mainly useless stem cell lines for research. Researchers, were mostly not interested.
9. Jim Gilmore Former governor of Virginia during the Clinton era, and was governor during the 9/11 attack on the Pentagon. Stole Howard Dean's line by saying he represents "the Republican wing of the Republican Party." Negatives: not many. Biggest problem: no one outside of Virginia knows who he is.
10. Ron Paul 10-term Congressman, medical doctor (M.D.) and two-time and current presidential candidate from the U.S. state of Texas. Wants to abolish both Social Security and the Federal Reserve. Chances of becoming president: 0. Look for him to be the Mike Gravel of tonight's debates.
Throw out the conventional wisdom (and Chris Matthews' amorous obsession with him) ... Giuliani has not won the Republican nomination for president. The race is still up in the air. Two pieces of evidence:
Word to Matthews (and my morning show co-host, whom I suspect is a closet Giuliani fan, or maybe not so closet...) nationwide polls, particularly a year before the primaries, are pretty meaningless. It's the state by state polls that matter, if any polls at this stage matter at all. And guess who's leading those, in three of the first, key primary states?
Contrary to Matthews' patently false statement on Hardball tonight, Giuliani does NOT continue to "go up in the polls." His numbers are trending steadily down. Especially when Fred Thompson is thrown into the mix.
Thompson, who's not yet in but whom I suspect will get in, has become the official candidate of Ronald Reagan's friends. That's not a good look for Rudy. As Thompson said of Rudy: "His popularity may be a mile wide and an inch deep. I'm sure that lead will shrink." Oh, and Thompson, unlike Giuliani, really could put California in play. Of course, Thompson has his issues, too, and a formidable hill to climb to get to the White House...
Rudy still has many nasty negatives for the media to uncover. Oh, here's one now!
Giuliani is way too close to Bush, whether the media chooses to tell you or not. Eventually, they'll have to tell, and then he'll continue to slide.
Pre-game show: For the Dem debate on MSNBC tonight, each of the 8 candidates has a slightly different mission.
For Hillary ... it's sound presidential
Barack ... live up to the charisma hype (and sound mature enough to be president)
Edwards ... get back the charisma hype
Richardson ... tuck in that neck...
All others ... say something memorable so as not to be blanked out of tomorrow's news cycle
7:00 - Okay, now to the substance. Brian Williams went straight to the war questions, starting with Barack and Hillary.
Barack reiterated that he is proud to have opposed the war from the get-go.
Hillary says as forthrightly as I've heard her that if she knew in 2002 what she knows today she would not have cast her Iraq vote the way she did.
Kucinich says you can't be against the war and continue to fund it.
Richardson says not only would he not vote to continue funding the war in Iraq were he in Congress, but that if he were president, he would push to withdraw all U.S. forces by the end of this calendar year, and use that leverage to push the Iraqis to come to a political settlement.
Chris Dodd talked about his legislation with Russ Feingold that would set a firm deadline to end the war.
Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska, who played a role in cutting off funds for the Vietnam war back in the day, got a shot in and called what the Congress is doing "embarassing." He said Congress should pass a law making it "a felony" for the president to remain in Iraq. Gravel, in very animated fashion for an old dude, laid out a tactic he said would force the president's hand: let the Senate Republicans fillibuster and call for a daily cloture vote at high noon to make clear who is keeping us in the war.
Next round, Obama is asked a question by a citizen who has a 19-year-old loved one deployed to Iraq. Obama is asked, what would he consider to be a "mission complete" status in Iraq. Obama so far isn't answering the question, but he did get his "we are one signature away from ending this war" line. He talked about needing 16 votes to override the veto. Short answer: Obama didn't answer the question.
Clinton's turn: Barack is right -- we have to put together the political support within the GOP to join with Dems to bring an end to the war. Easier said than done, and she adds that Bush seems determined not to change course despite the fact that we are losing ground. She ends by saying we need Republican support to finish the job.
Next round: "elephants in the room." This should be good!
Obama first -- "you promised a new kind of politics, so what about questionable ties to a Chicago donor tied to a kickback scheme." Obama: we have thousands of donors, this one engaged in bad behavior and I've denounced it.
Edwards -- "what about those $400 haircuts, paid for out of campaign funds?" -- Paying for the cuts out of campaign funds was a mistake. I'm privileged, yes, but that's not what I come from (cue the "son of a mill worker" shtick.) Actually, I'm being facetious, but Edwards handled it well, telling a good story, and ending that he's running to give others the same chance he's had. He's asked about repping hedge funds, and deftly parried it into a rundown of the lack of healthcare coverage.
In her response, Hillary bigs up the entrepreneurial economy and says that's what makes the country great. She also added a nice kicker that she's proud to represent the New York capital markets, and what we need to do is get back to a Democratic president who can undo the damage done by this president and the prior Republican congress.
Bill Richardson just got called on the carpet for being last in line to call for Alberto Gonzales' resignation. He admitted that he hesitated because Gonzales is Hispanic. Not a good move on the larger stage, hermano. But at least he was being honest.
Chris Dodd (I still can't figure out why this guy is running...) was asked about taking money from big money men. Honestly, he just said it and I've already forgotten what point he made...
Kucinich is doing his anti-war spiel now. He got in a pop culture reference by noting that this is not American Idol. I predict Kucinich will move up in the Moveon poll, but he still needs a pressed suit and a new life goal -- president really isn't on the table.
Joe Biden just got off a good one, giving a one word answer to Brian Williams' question about whether he can control his verbosity: "yes." Williams didn't seem to really believe he wasn't going to say anything else. Clearly, those stints on the Daily Show have helped.
Gravel is on a tear, saying some of the people on stage scare him. This guy is replacing Dennis Kucinich as the crazy uncle on the dais. So who scares you, Senator Gravel? He says the "top tier ones," and he says Biden "has a certain arrogance" and wants to tell the Iraqis what to do. He's now saying "we need to get out." "The entire deaths of Vietnam died in vain, and they're dying in vain this second. You know what's worse than a soldier dying in vain? More soldiers dying in vain..."
Hillary on her unfavorables, and the question of why Republicans are so looking forward to running against her. Hillary says you'd have to ask them. She says she takes it as a perverse form of flattery -- if they weren't worried, they wouldn't be so vitriolic. Hil reminded the audience that she tried for universal healthcare back in the day, and now the country is ready for change. This exchange will make the clips. Good job, Hil.
Next stop: abortion. Williams points out that most Americans polled approved of the SUPCO ruling on partial birth abortion. The question to Edwards: is there a disconnect between the candidates (all of whom are pro-life except Kucinich) and the public. Edwards says no disconnect. The question is whether women's health decisions will be made by women, or by a "bunch of men on the Supreme Court." He says the abortion issue is "extraordinarily difficult" for many people and "we have to show respect for people who have different views on this issue."
Obama, same issue: reiterates the difficulty of the decision, and says "I trust women to make these decisions with their doctors and their family and their clergy." Broader issue: can we move past the things upon which we disagree toward areas of agreement, such as reducing teen pregnancies. Nice parry.
Biden: would you have a Roe litmus test? Biden says he wouldn' t, but he would make sure his nominees shared his values re a right to privacy. Danger zone: Biden said he led the fight to dump Robert Bork. That will be looked up, dude. Also reminds that he opposed Clarence Thomas, Roberts and Scalito. He says the discussion is intellectually dishonest in that the procedure is so rare, but the legal maneuver is a first step toward ending Roe.
Kucinich says he wants to get America together in support of a "culture of life" including prenatal care, universal healthcare, etc., and listen carefully to those who are opposed to abortion. I'm now wondering if Kucinich has changed his mind on abortion (he used to oppose it) or if he's just being deft for the primaries.
Dodd is asked whether he regrets his vote for Roberts on the SUPCO (he's the only one on the dais who voted in favor of him.) Dodd says he's disappointed in Roberts, then he quickly moves on to Alito, and his history of voting pro-life.
7:52 ...
Each candidate is asked to pick a model SUPCO justice:
Richardson - Windsor White (dead), among the living? Ruth Bader GinsbergDodd -- Brennan (dead), GinsbergEdwards -- Ginsberg or Breyer
Clinton, did the government fail those students at VA tech. Yes. She throws in a "Bill" reference, talking about accompanying the then president to Columbine. We need to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally unstable. During the Clinton administration, that was a goal -- not to curtail gun ownershiprights. The background checks clearly didn't work.
Bill Richardson -- you are currently the NRA's favorite candidate in either party. Did anything about the massacre make you rethink your position on guns? Richardson smartly starts with condolences. He says he's a westerner and a hunter and the Second Amendment is precious in the west. Two big problems here are mental illness, and instant background checks should be properlyfunded at the state and local level. Richardson parries quickly to mental health parity. That NRA thing makes Richardson an even more attractive veep, I think.
Show of hands: how many of you have had a gun in the house: Gravel, Biden, Dodd, Richardson and Kucinich.
Biden: what could the feds have done? Biden's bragging again, saying he was the guy who put 100,000 cops on the street "that the Clinton administration made work so well." Aye, yay, yay! He then says close the gun show loophole, etc. says schools should be able to remove a student deemed dangerous.
Next up, taxes: Edwards is asked which taxes he'd raise. He says he'd get rid of the Bush tax cuts for those making $200K a year or more. Then he does the big dodge. Require employers to coverall employees with healthcare. But what about those tax cuts, dude?
Obama -- have a national pool people can buy into if they don't have health coverage, similar to what members of Congress enjoy. Second, control costs. Obama has statistics, which is good, includingthe rise in Black infant mortality. But weren't we talking about taxes?
Hillary says she tried to put forth a universal healthcare plan and people got scared. She says she's ready to try again. She says save money within the existing system first, before spending new money on new programs.
Richardson called the most strident in opposing tax increases to pay for healthcare. Richardson reminds the room that as a governor, he deals with these issues daily. His healthcare plan: no new bureaucracy, every American shares the costs, focus on prevention, cut out inefficiencies and bureaucracies, better information sharing to save cash, cut out middle men like HMOs between docs and patients. Richardson has clearly carved out the position as the most centrist or conservative guy in the race.
Q from the viewers: Re the ban on SC from the NAACP over the Confederate flag. Why are you guys here?
Biden answers that we're here because we were asked by James Clyburn, and it's better to show off this historically Black college than to walk away from this opportunity.
Barack says the Confederate flag should be put in a museum, that's where it belongs. But we've got really big problems, such as Black infant mortality. Parries to "people are hungry for change." Deft dodge.
Another Q from viewers: biggest professional or personal mistake? Gravel gets it. This should be good. Says he's the senior statesman up there and was beginning to feel like a potted plant. Then he tries to use Ronald Reagan's "youth and inexperience" line to no effect. Kucinich says his biggie was firing the police chief on the 6:00 news when he was mayor of Cleveland. Hillary says not enough time to list all of hers, but ends with "believing the president when he said he'd go to the U.N. on Iraq." Barack says he shouldn't have left the Senate in advance of the Terri Schiavo vote. Biden: overestimating the competence and underestimating the arrogance of the Bush administration. Edwards: voting for the Iraq war. "Unfortunately I'll have to live with that forever. The lesson I learned is to listen to my own judgment". Dodd: voting for the war. Richardson: being too impatient and aggressive, including a push to increase the minimum wage, and instead of pursuing diplomacy, tried to ram it through the legislature. Strange one to choose in a Democratic primary.
Next Q: would you defy the American people if you were president by offering amesty to illegal immigrants? Hillary: says she's for comprehensive reform, letting illegal migrants pay a fine, get in line and become citizens. Nobody else got socked with this one.
To Biden, how can we reverse the American brain drain? Raise teacher pay to get the best teachers in the world.
To Dodd: shouldn't welfare recipients have to pass a drug test? Dodd says we're an overtested society. Let's try a little tenderness.
To Edwards: with oil co profits so high, why is gas so expensive? Edward says we need to address climate change and dependence on foreign oil, focus on new technologies. Edwards isn't really giving me charisma, I have to say.
The candidates are fielding more questions from viewers. I won't recount them all. Kucinich is talking now, about healthcare and his universal plan, no profits for anybody, blah blah blah.
For all comers, one sentence please: "while sitting in the Oval Office on day one of your administration, what's the first thing you want to accomplish?"
Richardson -- get us out of Iraq, day two: Apollo program on energy independence, day three: climate change, day four: day off. That wasn't one sentence, so nobody else got a shot.
Next section will be non-Iraq foreign policy.
Obama is asked who are America's three most important allies. He says EU is most important, and we've made new allies via NATO. He's veered off into Afghanistan now, and I'm not quite sure why... looking east, the center of gravity is shifting to Asia. Japan has been a great ally, but China is rising, though they're not an enemy or a friend. I count two so far. In a follow up, Brian Williams notes that Obama didn't mention Israel. He calls him out on saying "nobody has suffered as much as the Palestinian people." Obama points out that the rest of that sentence was "because of failed Palestinian leadership." He'll get slammed tomorrow by the AIPAC lobby.
Biden? Biggest threats besides Iraq? North Korea, Iran and Putin's tendency to move in a totalitarian direction in Russia. Biden adds that we have to jettison the ideas of preemption and regime change in favor of "prevention" and "conduct change." This administration "is saying give up the weapons that are the only things keeping us from attacking you, and once you do that, we're gonna take you out."
Gravel says we have no enemies. We must start treating other countries as equals. Kucinich should fall on his knees tonight and thank God that this guy was on the dais...
Edwards is asked whether Russia is a friend or foe. He says the government has moved away from democracy under Putin, but we need to ask "how to make America a force for good again." He's having a Princess Di moment, talking about showing U.S. commitment to good things.
Richardson, the only diplomat in the house is asked how he would do things differently with Russia. The governor says he wants to see control of loose nukes, a new policy on Chechnya, stable energy supplies and more democracy. "Being stubborn isn't a foreign policy, and power without focus is blind." He says he would focus on terrorism and nuke proliferation. Richardson sounds great on these issues. Very coherent.
Next, Hil is asked about the Giuliani "vote for me or die" quote, and is asked how Republicans got that "protector" vibe going? She's pointing out the disconnect between rhetoric and reality on port and homeland security, and says the administration hypes the fear, but doesn't deliver. And its foreign policy "has made the world less stable, which ... has a ripple effect on what we're going to face in the future." Hil didn't take the opportunity to attack Rudy directly, interestingly. Maybe she's keeping her eye on New Jersey, the only contestible Blue state, or New York itself? Dodd is basically reiterating Hillary. No news here.
Show of hands: is there a global war on terror? All hands went up except Edwards, Kucinich and Gravel. But no hands were held very high... Kucinich says that the GWOT has been a pre-text for aggressive war. He says he wants to stop using war as a foreign policy instrument and get rid of all U.S. nukes. Right. Gravel: please save this guy...
Obama: how would you change the U.S. military stance overseas if two U.S. cities were hit by al-Qaida (why two, Brian?) Obama says we need to change our domestic response capabilities, get good intelligence on who carried it out (Williams just said it was al-Qaida...) He's off on not using faulty intel and bluster, and talking to the international community. This was Barack's weakest answer of the night.
Edwards, same Q: Edwards says he'd make sure it was al-Qaida and try to figure out how they got passed us. So far, two answers, no winners. On GWOT, we have more tools than bombs.
Hil: starts her answer "Having been a Senator on 9/11..." nice. Says "a president must move swiftly to retaliate." ... If there were nations who gave aid or assisted the attack, we respond swiftly. Says she supported hitting the Taliban. Says we haven't found Bin Laden. Says "let's focus on who attacked us and let's get 'em." FINALLY, the right answer! Geez...
Impeach Cheney? No hands supporting Kucinich. So is it an appropriate use of time and energy? Kucinich has whipped out his pocket constitution, a la Senator Byrd.
Dodd: for civil unions, not for gay marriage.
Biden: time to get serious on climate change.
Richardson just threw in that he'd have a swift military response to a terror attack. Now on to Castro, Richardson we need to "find ways to deal with a post-democratic Cuba" -- I think he meant a post-Castro Cuba. He said he's opposed to the family visit ban by the Bushies, and says we should reevaluate the embargo. Miami's old school won't like that one...
Senator Mike Gravel is talking again ... he's really nutty...
Kucinich is calling out Barack on saying "all options are on the table" when it comes to Iran. He's saying we have to change energy policies and stop using war as a strategic tactic. Obama responds that it would be a mistake to go to war with Iran, but Iran having nukes would be a threat to us, and they are a major sponsor of terror. We just got our first "let me finish..." Obama is trying to buck up his foreign policy strength quotient. Now Gravel is jumping in ... oh, lord. He says we need to stop "scaring the bejeezus out of" Iran. Okay, he just declared the U.S. the biggest violator of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Yep. Great way to be a credible candidate.
Now, on to who is your moral leader? Edwards is pausing a long time, but says he couldn't identify a single person. He then says he goes to the Lord for counsel, and now mentions his wife as a source of great conscience, his father too is cited as an influence.
Hillary is asked if Wal Mart is a good thing or bad thing overall for America. She says it's a "mixed blessing" -- allows people to stretch their dollars further, but they've raised issues of corporate responsibility re providing healthcare for employees, non-discrimination, etc. She says that the administration and corporate America "don't see middle class Americans." Another winner for Hil.
Biden is asked if the Dems lose a third time, it will be "modern day extinction" for the party, so is there a winner on this stage, putting himself aside? Biden says he sees winners, and says anyone who is "wishing for Hillary is making a mistake ... on the Republican side." Good that he added that last bit.
It was a given that Hillary was going to raise more money than God ... but who knew Mitt Romney was such a pistol? Romney didn't just win the GOP money primary, he whipped its tail, raising a surprise $23 million -- just $3 million shy of Hillary's mark -- to demolish the Republican field. Rudy "Third Time's the Charm" Giuliani took in around $15 million (he's out there boasting that he can raise $100 million -- and he's telling the media to "lay offhis third / hussy/dog-harming wife!", and poor, addled John McCain, who has self-immolated over Iraq, took in just $12.5 million. Meanwhile, a new poll shows that a non-candidate/television actor/former Senator, Fred Thompson, goes from zero to third place among Republican voters, sucking most of his 12% polling numbers from Rudy, who's now down in the 30s, after hovering around 44 percent in USAT/Gallup. The caveat with Romney is that he was an investment banker at one point in his life, and made a lot of big money contacts as head of the U.S. Olympic Committee, and as Chris Matthews just pointed out on Hardball, when you marry Romney's fundraising to his low poll numbers, you get one hell of a high per capita rate (meaning Romney is the candidate of the very rich, and not much more...)
What gives?
There clearly is no Republican front runner right now, and a lot of dissatisfaction is in evidence on the right side of the dial. That leads me to believe that Thompson, despite a stunning lack of substance that even some RedStaters have noticed, as evidenced in this surprisingly lucid post (once you look past the strained attempt not to call Dubya a failed president), could still emerge as a front runner in this rather pitiable field.
On the Dem side, Bill Richardson did better than expected at $6 million, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden should just hang it up, and Edwards did pretty well. The big question is how much did Barack Obama raise, which we'll find out probably tomorrow. The Hillary people are already trying to raise expectations, putting out the buzz that Barack's haul could be as much as $21 million. We'll see.
Meanwhile, here are the latest poll numbers from Florida:
THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton 36 percent Al Gore, 16 percent Barack Obama 13 percent John Edwards 11 percent (all other candidates below 5 percent)
Hillary and Giuliani are in roughly the same position, while poor Baghdad John is in the shitter, with Newt Gingrich, of all people, trailing him by just 4 percentage points. The Al Gore number is interesting, as Dems still haven't let go of their Gore nostalgia. I maintain that if he ran, he couldn't win, but that's just me. Once Dem voters finally get over it (rent his climate change movie and call it a day, folks...) I think Hillary will put some distance between herself and her competitors, with Obama ticking up a little, too.
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