Reidblog [The Reid Report blog]

Think at your own risk.
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Who (really) won the popular vote
Hillary Clinton didn't mention it today (and that's a good thing) during her quite wonderful concession speech in Washington, but the question of who really won the popular vote continues to hang over the Democratic contest, if only in the world of pundits. So who won?

The answer: probably Obama, but it kind of depends on how you count it. RCP tries to sort it out.


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posted by JReid @ 4:01 PM  
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Not that it matters much but...
Hillary Clinton won the Puerto Rico primary today, by a commanding 68% to 32%. But here's the thing: PR normally turns out 80 percent of its registered voters for local elections. This time, with a major national election on the line, turnout was only about 20 percent, according to CNN. And the numbers won't help bolster Camp Hillary's phony-baloney popular vote argument, given that the whole shebang turned out just over 300,000 voters. The finally tally, per the CNN election thingy:

257,331 votes, 38 delegates

118,972 votes, 17 delegates

Clinton net:
138,359 votes, 21 delegates (she had been looking for a 200,000 vote net out of PR.)

That doesn't exactly help put Hillary ahead in the popular vote, even if you use her multi-state deleting, Michigan-including math.


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posted by JReid @ 7:44 PM  
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Obama, Clinton score a split, Clinton still out of contention (four months running)
Hillary wins Kentucky by 30 plus points, but Obama's win in Oregon will put him over the 50 percent plus one delegate threshold. News flash: Pat Buchanan says Oregon really doesn't count because the white people of Kentucky are the real Americans. 

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posted by JReid @ 11:24 PM  
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Is West Virginia the dumbest state? Enquiring minds want to know...
My new homies at Constructive Anarchy answer the question of the week... (pictures included...) Meanwhile, as West Virginia's Mountaineers prepare to head to the polls to put down the rebellion by that skinny colored feller and his pointy-headed carpetbagger friends, and restore the South to her eternal glory, the world (sort of) watches and waits (okay, they're mostly watching and waiting on Barack Obama, since the primary is over for all intents and purposes and West Virginia doesn't matter...) but anyway, the state that was home to the first land battle of the Civil War (and the first Union death,) Harper's Ferry and King Coal, will soon show the world (those who actually give a crap, or who, like our dear pundit contrarian Rachel Maddow, insist that other people give a crap) what they're made of.

Need some West Virginia trivia to brighten your day? Here 'tis. And here's some political trivia, too. Would you believe Michael Dukakis won the state in 1988?


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posted by JReid @ 8:14 AM  
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Live by the sword...
One more thing...

If Hillary Clinton winds up losing Indiana tonight (or this morning) -- which could very well happen with much of Gary, Indiana still to come in and a margin of around 20,000 -- the irony for her and her husband will be that the deciding margin will be black voters in that city, and in Lake County. Bill Clinton made his national reputation by making black voters fall in love with him. As his wife's chief surrogate during this campaign, he led her in a renunciation of the black vote that was so thorough, so definitive, and so grotesque, it was stunning, not least of which to black America. Now, as their campaign draws to a close, it appears that it will be the black vote that ultimately did Hillary in. Payback really is a bitch.


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posted by JReid @ 12:28 AM  
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Hillary's Never Never land
Did Hillary Clinton and I watch the same returns tonight? Probably not, given that her camp has probably banned MSNBC (except for HRC-friendly "Scarborough Country,") in favor of her newfound friends at Fox News. Fox (and CBS) have definitively called Indiana for Hillary, though her lead is down to less than 40,000 votes with 200,000 or so outstanding. NBC/MSNBC remains the loan holdout, but if their instincts turn out to be right, Hillary might regret opening her surreal speech tonight with "we broke the tie," and "now it's full steam ahead, on to the White House!"

Not the speech I was expecting. Not that I thought she'd concede. Never that. But tonight was perhaps Hillary's last best chance to leave Democratic voters not already in her camp with a positive impression of her. She should have reached for inspiration, not politics. She should have gone for grace notes, not excuse-making ("we were out-spent five to one") and snidery (referring to Barack as "my opponent" instead of using his name.) Even her supporters' borrowed chant of "yes she will" sounds stilted (as does the chant "Hillary! Hillary!" next to the higher plane rhetoric of Obama's "yes WE can!" I don't think the speeches even come close to comparing. And while I'm biased, I used to be a Clintonista, and I know a good -- and a bad -- speech when I hear one.

Hil, this was a sucky speech.

Update: the pundits on MSNBC are focusing on the second half of HRC's speech, which they're describing as conciliatory. I suppose so, but I think the first part was such a misfire, it probably negated it. Her followers remain as angry as ever. I'm struck by just how angry they are, judging by their comments on posts like this one...

I think one big loser tonight is Evan Bayh, who may yet deliver Indiana, but Russert is hearing that it could be by 1,800 votes.


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posted by JReid @ 10:50 PM  
No joy in Hillaryville
One of the reasons I love politics is that it is one of the few things in this modern life that has the genuine possibility to surprise. Tonight, that happened. Barack Obama appears to be headed for a blowout (15 points or so) in North Carolina; not unexpected given the fact that he has led by as many as 20 points in recent weeks. But Hillary Clinton's forecast parallel victory (10 points or so) in Indiana not only has not materialized, that race is now too close to call. It's down to 39,000 votes, with some 300,000 votes or more still outstanding, many of them in Obama territory in the northern part of the state, according to Chuck Todd at MSNBC.

Barack's victory speech tonight was a back to his core strength barn burner. (Note to my friend, Newton: you called it. Barack has gone back on message.) It was as inspiring a speech as I can imagine, hitting all the themes he needed: magnanimity for Hillary and her supporters, unity within the party and the country, a campaign, not about him, ("an imperfect messenger,") but about "you." He took a needed swipe at the media and the politics of distraction, and he said he "trusts the American people" to rise above it all, focusing instead on bettering the "country he loves." This was Barack's most substantive speech, even if it lacked detail, because it improved upon his previous loftiness by making him a man who cares about real people, in Indiana, in Iowa, in Pennsylvania, and in North Carolina. Even the gas tax issue, one on which I was critical of Barack's campaign for not hitting Hillary harder, Barack (and the much maligned "economists,")appear have won the day. Even in Indiana.

Hillary Clinton may wake up tomorrow having lost Indiana. Even if she squeaks through, she will have one hell of a time explaining what she's still doing in the race, other than mounting a vain attempt to take down the certain Democratic nominee.

This primary is effectively over, folks. (Sorry, Rush. I guess your listeners aren't as dumb as them seem...) Welcome to the general election.

What a night.


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posted by JReid @ 9:47 PM  
ReidBlog: The Obama Interview
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"I am for enhanced interrogation. I don't believe waterboarding is torture... I'll do it. I'll do it for charity." -- Sean Hannity
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