The line at the North Dade Regional Library in Miami Gardens stretched onto the sidewalk and around three corners, almost surrounding the building. I wish I could have gotten an aerial shot. Stage two of the line, after the first bend, is pictured above.
One of my biggest frustrations in observing and working in elections in Florida since I moved here in 1997 has been the inconsistency of the black vote, which turned out in great numbers in 2000, only to be so discouraged by the outcome, that the numbers dwindled every election thereafter. This August, the primary election saw county-wide turnout in Miami-Dade and Broward, the biggest Democratic strongholds and largest black voter bases, stall at pathetic 6-10 point rates.
Not anymore.
This election has energized black voters (including African-Americans and Caribban-Americans) like nothing I've ever seen. The lines are exaggerated, the people happy to be there. It's an incredible outpouring unlike anything I've ever seen. Ever. It's actually moving, to see so many people pouring their hopes and dreams into this election, and to be even a small part of this history-making event. And make no mistake, the time that folks are spending in line is making a difference:
Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.
That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.
The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.
Black voters have made the difference, accounting for 16 percent of the early and absentee voters so far -- with 86 percent of them registered Democrats. In 2004, black turnout for early and absentee voting was a bit more than 10 percent of the total.
Black turnout has been especially high in the state's urban areas. In Broward County, blacks accounted for 39 percent of all early voters at the polls through Thursday; in Miami-Dade County, it was 30 percent. In Orange County, 30 percent of all voters were black; in Duval County, it was 36 percent.
And it's not just black voters. Hispanic voters are also trending Obama (as are a strong, 40-plus share of urban and suburban white voters). On Hispanics, campaign manager David Plouffe says:
''We're doing very well with Puerto Rican voters, Colombian voters. We're doing, I think, surprisingly well with younger Cuban voters,'' Plouffe said in a conference call with reporters Friday. ``We think we're going to carry the Hispanic vote in Florida if the trend lines continue.''
Dario Moreno, a pollster with Florida International University's Metropolitan Center, said Plouffe's description of the Hispanic voting bloc is in line with a poll released this week showing that Obama leads McCain by 20 percentage points among non-Cuban Hispanics and was slightly ahead among Cuban Americans under 45.
More on the Hispanic vote in Florida here. And another note on the black vote from the NY Times:
Growing up in St. Louis in the 1950s and ’60s, Deddrick Battle came to believe that the political process was not for people like him — a struggling black man whose vote, he was convinced, surely would not count for much of anything. The thought became ingrained as an adult, almost like common sense.
But a month ago, at age 55, Mr. Battle registered to vote for the first time.
“This is huge,” Mr. Battle, a janitor, said after his overnight shift cleaning a movie theater. “This is bigger than life itself. When I was coming up, I always thought they put in who they wanted to put in. I didn’t think my vote mattered. But I don’t think that anymore.”
Across the country, black men and women like Mr. Battle who have long been disaffected, apolitical, discouraged or just plain bored with politics say they have snapped to attention this year, according to dozens of interviews conducted in the last several days in six states. They are people like Percy Matthews of the South Side of Chicago, a 25-year-old who did vote once but whose experience was so forgettable that he cannot recall with certainty whom he cast a ballot for or even what year it was. Now an enthusiastic Democrat, he says the old days are gone.
And Shandell Wilcox, 29, who registered to vote in Jacksonville, Fla., when she was 18, then proceeded to ignore every election other than the current one. She voted for the first time on Wednesday.
Over and again, first-time and relatively new voters like Mr. Matthews and Ms. Wilcox, far past the legal voting age, said they were inspired by the singularity of the 2008 election and the power of Mr. Obama’s magnetism. Many also said they were loath to miss out on their part in writing what could be a new chapter of American history — the chance to vote for a black president.
Of course, the most wonderful thing about the Obama campaign is, to quote Bill Clinton, its diversity. This isn't just a movement of black people, but of Americans of all backgrounds, pulling together for a single goal. The increae in black turnout is simply symbolic of the power of the idea of change, and how it can bring people back into the process no matter how long they've felt alienated from it.
And speaking of the campaign, Deval Patrick came down today, and he visited three polling sites and a church in South Florida. The Massachusetts governor is a very nice guy, very down to earth. He's Harvard class of (no comment,) and we chatted about his living in Dunster House (I was Cabot.) Great guy, and he got to see firsthand the incredibly long lines in predominantly African-American and one Caribbean-centric site.
Gov. Deval Patrick addresses a crowd standing behind stage one of the line at North Dade Library. Pictured here is the part of the line that extended immediately outside the door of the library.
Gov. Patrick (right) waits to speak as Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson addresses the crowd from her crutches. Beside her is Commissioner Barbara Jordan, whose district includes Miami Gardens. Two of the most outstanding politicians, and best women politicians, out there, in my opinion.
The Huffpo was there in the form of a guy named John Hood, who filed this report:
MIAMI--Pulling up to the North Dade Regional Library in the inner city suburb of Miami Gardens for one of Florida's numerous early voter rallies, the first thing that strikes you is the line of early voters itself. Not just any line, mind you, but a line that begins at the library doors, folds in two, covers the parking lot, stretches out to the sidewalk, then snakes around a very large block. We're talking thousands here. Literally. All of whom who've come to exercise their right to vote -
Beyond the length of the line though, what might even be more striking is the excitement, which is as palpable as the sun is hot and high. Picture the biggest block party you can imagine, throw in a neighborhood-sized backyard BBQ, a county fair, and a traveling carnival, and you'll get half the idea of the energy of this rally, as well as the cross-section of those in attendance. Young toughs and dressed-up grannies, college students and their proud parents, single mothers, single fathers, entire families, in collars of blue and white, not only having the time of their lives, but having it on behalf of what all would agree was the most important election of their lifetime.
In the thick of it all is Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, here in town at the request of the presidential candidate himself. People receive Patrick with so much warmth it's almost as if he was their governor, and not someone else's. And in many respects he is, not simply because of race, but because of the bootstraps, but because of the example he's set for everyone. And, of course, because Patrick, like Obama, represents a sea change in America, a sea change that everyone here is a part of. ...
Read the rest here. And now for a little video entertainment:
The latest early vote and absentee ballot numbers are absolutely stunning, and great news for the good guys:
Democrats are ahead in terms of turnout by 205,205 voters out of the nearly 3 million votes cast. For the first time that I can recall, Republicans are below 50 percent in absentee ballot returns. Taht has never happened, in my memory. And the advantage that Dems have in early vote is nearly two to one.
Total Ballots Cast
Thursday, October 30
Voted Early
Dem
%
Ind
%
Rep
%
Total
894049
53.22%
276494
16.46%
509371
30.32%
1,679,914
Returned Absentee Ballots
dem
%
ind
%
rep
%
Total
464325
35.64%
194859
14.95%
643798
49.41%
1,302,982
Total Ballots Cast
dem
%
ind
%
rep
%
Total
1,358,374
45.54%
471,353
15.80%
1,153,169
38.66%
2,982,896
2006 Comparative
Voted Early (2006)
Dem
%
Ind
%
Rep
%
Total
244688
45.48%
76044
14.14%
217246
40.38%
537,978
Returned Absentee Ballots (2006)
dem
%
ind
%
rep
%
Total
177049
30.90%
81406
14.21%
314582
54.90%
573,037
Total Ballots Cast (2006)
dem
%
ind
%
rep
%
Total
421,737
37.96%
157,450
14.17%
531,828
47.87%
1,111,015
The electrifying Democratic turnout is being driven in large part by black voters, although it does appear that so far, younger voters are underperforming according to an Orlando Sentinel analysis:
A Sentinel analysis of the record 1.4 million ballots cast during the first nine days of early voting compared the age, race and party affiliation of those who voted early against a list of Florida's 11.2 million registered voters. It showed:
*More than one in five early voters -- 22 percent -- was black, though blacks account for just over 13 percent of the electorate. Obama is the first black person running for president as a major-party nominee, and his campaign has made an effort to turn out the black vote early.
*More than half of all the early voters were 55 or older, with a bit more than 29 percent of them 65 or older and 22 percent ages 55 to 64. Combined, those in this group comprise about 40 percent of the total electorate and are considered the most reliable voters.
*Nearly 54 percent were Democrats, a group that makes up 42 percent of the electorate. And just 30 percent were Republicans, whose registrants total 36 percent of registered voters.
*Young people are turning out in disproportionately low numbers. Though major registration efforts this year boosted their totals to nearly 25 percent of the total electorate, voters younger than 35 represent only 15 percent of early voters, making them the worst-performing demographic group in the analysis.
Quipped University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus, an expert in Florida voting demographics: "It could be that college students will do like they do everything else: cramming for a test, or whatever, and procrastinate."
20% of state electorate has voted
The challenge for Team Obama will be to get those younger voters out. Pronto.
No, not that one (yet) ... the Florida Democratic Party, and Democratic members of Congress and the state legislature push Charlie Crist to do the right thing:
Long lines at the polls prompted Gov. Charlie Crist to sign an executive order on Tuesday, extending voting times to 12 hours a day.
Effective immediately, early voting sites statewide will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Oct. 31. Sat., Nov. 1 and Sun., Nov. 2, polls will be open a total of 12 hours, to be determined by the supervisors of elections in the individual counties.
“I have a responsibility to the voters of our state to ensure that the maximum number of citizens can participate in the electoral process, and that every person can exercise the right to vote,” Crist said.
The Obama-Biden campaign in Florida released the following statement:
TAMPA – Obama-Biden State Director Steven Schale issued the following statement regarding the extension of early voting:
“We applaud Gov. Crist for responding to the overwhelming enthusiasm shown by Florida voters during this election season. To this point, an estimated 2 million Floridians have already cast a ballot over the last eight days.
“It is critical that everyone who is eligible and eager to vote be able to participate and have their voice heard. And now with the extended hours, thousands more will have that opportunity.
“We encourage Floridians to continue casting their votes before Election Day, either at an early voting location or by mail, and to participate in this election – because voting is democracy in action.”
And state Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman added this:
"With a record number of voters across the Sunshine State turning out to early vote, Governor Charlie Crist did the right thing today by extending early voting hours. I want to thank the members of our Congressional Delegation, who after witnessing long lines throughout Florida, worked with the Governor to make it easier for Floridians to cast their ballots by expanding early voting. This action will help ensure that a record number of Floridians can participate in this historic election and should ease the lines that have been seen across Florida at polling places. We will continue to work with election officials throughout Florida to make it easier for every eligible voter to cast their votes. It is now incumbent on our Legislature to permanently ease the restrictions on early voting moving forward."
Dems are already winning the early vote, so this is GREAT news. In case you forgot, first four days of voting:
Not yet publicly released numbers from the Florida Elections Division suggest Barack Obama has good reason to spend that $39 million.
As of September 1, Florida Democrats picked up a net gain of 287,770 new voters since January, to the Florida GOP's 112,290, less than 100,000 voters shy of John Kerry's 2004 margin of defeat (with two months to go from September 1 to October 6.) That means Democrats have registered 58.7 percent of the new voters on the rolls, including those who switched parties or were purged, to the Republicans' 22.9 percent (the other 18 percent or so are Independents.)
But wait, there's more:
80% of the 109,361 newly registered Black voters registered as Dems, vs. 3.5% Republicans.
46% of the 125,685 newly registered Hispanics are Democrats, versus 19% Republicans.
Only among White voters do the parties achieve parity, with Democrats getting 33% of the 301,020 new voters and Republicans getting 36%. In other words, white voters are a wash...
Except that they really aren't ...
By age, Democrats also have big advantages:
45% of the 336,997 voters under age 35 who registered to vote through September registered as Democrats versus 21.7% who signed up as Republicans.
In the middle age category, Dems got 44.6% of new registrants 35-65, versus 24.9% for the GOP. In fact, more voters registered to be Independents (30.5%) than chose to be Republicans. (Ditto for young voters, 33.5% of whom regestered NPA.)
And even most voters over 65 who are newly registered chose to become Democrats: 40.9% to 33.6%.
What does this mean? It means that the majority of new voters -- nearly enough to close John Kerry's losing margin of 380,000 votes, are now in the Democratic Party, and many of them are now in the Obama campaign's database, ready to be pushed to the polls. The Republicans could still pull a big turnout like they did in 2004, or they could be counting on grabbing the lion's share of hte Independent vote, but Democrats are more than in a position to win this state, based on simple addition.
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"[T]he practice of arbitrary imprisonments, have been, in all ages, the favorite and most formidable instruments of tyranny.' Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 84, August, 1788