Tag Archives: FiveThirtyEight

Who will win tonight? Nate Silver or the Probability Truthers? (Plus TRR’s prediction map)

Well it’s that time, folks! We’ll all know tomorrow whether Nate Silver and math are right about this election, or whether the probability truthers will get the last laugh. Below is the TRR guess for the final map. Please keep … Continue reading

Posted in 2012, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Shorter Nate Silver: ‘No one knows what’s going to happen on Election Day’

Two remarkable polls by FiveThirtyEight/New York Times numbers guru Nate Silver make the point I’ve been trying to make for months: pollsters and experts (a la Charlie Cook,) are surefire certain Republicans are going to run the table on November … Continue reading

Posted in Elections, Opinion, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

SaintPetersblog: Bet the house? (or, is the Florida Senate race over?)

Is this the chart that ends the discussion in the Florida race for U.S. Senate? Peter Schorsch writes: Just ten days ago, the likelihood of Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist winning Florida’s US Senate race was about even money according … Continue reading

Posted in Charlie Crist, Elections, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, News and Current Affairs, People, Political News, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

Can we stop paying attention to Rasmussen polls now?

It’s exhausting watching media “analysts” and experts, and even liberal-leaning blogs, give credence to junk polls, of which Rasmussen has got to be the worst. The Republican polling outfit — the Frank Luntz of polls — robocalls a few hundred … Continue reading

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